For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta21
BY 7final margin
JaguarsJacksonville14
Atlanta Falcons 21 at Jacksonville Jaguars 14. Final.
Falcons -1.5 ✓U 46 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
Atlanta Falcons 21, Jaguars 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:28, 3rd and 13, on Mike Davis — 8.6 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:28 · 3rd and 13
Mike Davis
Falcons
(4:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 28-M.Davis to ATL 34 for 18 yards (42-A.Wingard, 44-M.Jack) [5-R.Ford].
Falcons closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Atlanta Falcons 21–14. Biggest swing: Q1 4:28, Falcons +8.6% win probability on one snap.
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James RobinsonFalconsQ2 7:52(7:52) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 29 for 1 yard (94-A.Rush). FUMBLES (94-A.Rush), RECOVERED by ATL-90-M.Davidson at JAX 29.
7.1pts
Younghoe KooFalconsQ2 6:51(6:51) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. PENALTY on JAX-95-R.Robertson-Harris, Leverage, 13 yards, enforced at JAX 25 - No Play.
5.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 16 on third down, against Falcons at 5 of 12 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 6 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Falcons165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(4:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 28-M.Davis to ATL 34 for 18 yards (42-A.Wingard, 44-M.Jack) [5-R.Ford].
Swing −8.6 for JaguarsExpected points −2.82 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 13 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:28JAX +9% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 28-M.Davis to ATL 34 for 18 yards (42-A.Wingard, 44-M.Jack) [5-R.Ford].
2nd · 7:52ATL +7% win prob(7:52) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 29 for 1 yard (94-A.Rush). FUMBLES (94-A.Rush), RECOVERED by ATL-90-M.Davidson at JAX 29.
2nd · 6:51JAX +6% win prob(6:51) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. PENALTY on JAX-95-R.Robertson-Harris, Leverage, 13 yards, enforced at JAX 25 - No Play.
2nd · 10:13JAX +6% win prob(10:13) (Punt formation) PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 9 - No Play.
2nd · 0:23ATL +5% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at 50. 32-T.Campbell to 50 for no gain (8-K.Pitts).
4th · 9:53JAX +5% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 18-L.Treadwell to ATL 19 for 20 yards (34-D.Hall).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cordarrelle Patterson's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 0:46 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:46Cordarrelle Patterson·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
4th6:33Matthew Wright·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+321–14
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryJaguars
Falcons3–5Jaguars
334Total yards359
5.9Yards per play5.0
47%Success rate49%
42%Third-down rate56%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays8
18First downs21
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Jaguars ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Falcons: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Falcons: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 57 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 72 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Jaguars 3.
NoteJaguars outgained Falcons 359-334 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 11 against 44.4% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Jaguars12.9%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.4%, 12.0 points below their season mean of 56.4% and 1.2 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Robinson up−13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:52) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 29 for 1 yard (94-A.Rush). FUMBLES (94-A.Rush), RECOVERED by ATL-90-M.Davidson at JAX 29.
Q2 7:52 · Jaguars · 2nd & 2 at JAX 28 · gained 1 · -5.25 EP · −13.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 88 yards from the ATL 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
691
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.1463%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.2289%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.3550%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.5343%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0743%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.0613%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Jaguars 39
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 37
Falcons6Jaguars0
Falcons7Jaguars0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Jaguars 7
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Falcons 35
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 1 to the Falcons 45
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 28
Falcons13Jaguars0
Falcons14Jaguars0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 12
Falcons14Jaguars3
Field goal17 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Falcons 3
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Falcons 31
Turnover on downs6 plays, from midfield to the Falcons 41
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 46
Falcons20Jaguars3
Falcons21Jaguars3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Jaguars 12
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 36
Falcons21Jaguars9
Falcons21Jaguars11
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Falcons 7
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Jaguars 42
Falcons21Jaguars14
Field goal17 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Falcons 6
Punt16 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Jaguars 46
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 29
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
