2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

ATL -1.5 ✓U 46 ✓Falcons closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Atlanta Falcons 21–14. Biggest swing: Q1 4:28, JAX +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:28ATL — JAX ATL ball · 3rd & 13ATL 50%

(4:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 28-M.Davis to ATL 34 for 18 yards (42-A.Wingard, 44-M.Jack) [5-R.Ford].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:28JAX +9% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 28-M.Davis to ATL 34 for 18 yards (42-A.Wingard, 44-M.Jack) [5-R.Ford].
Q2 · 7:52ATL +7% win prob(7:52) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 29 for 1 yard (94-A.Rush). FUMBLES (94-A.Rush), RECOVERED by ATL-90-M.Davidson at JAX 29.
Q2 · 6:51JAX +6% win prob(6:51) 7-Y.Koo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. PENALTY on JAX-95-R.Robertson-Harris, Leverage, 13 yards, enforced at JAX 25 - No Play.
Q2 · 10:13JAX +6% win prob(10:13) (Punt formation) PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 9 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Jaguars
Offensive plays	57	72
Total yards	334	359 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	47%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	5/12	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Jaguars outgained Falcons 359–334 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/42, 228 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -5.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

19/29, 190 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.9 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

16 att, 108 yds, 2 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

17 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Russell GageWR

6/7 for 62 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Laquon TreadwellWR

4/8 for 53 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 32	11	32	4:57	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 14	9	28	4:08	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 19	10	81	5:17	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 28	8	37	3:16	Interception
5	ATL	ATL 1	8	39	3:55	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 20	2	9	0:43	Fumble
7	ATL	JAX 29	5	16	1:04	Touchdown
8	JAX	JAX 27	15	70	5:55	Turnover on downs
9	ATL	ATL 24	3	7	0:26	Interception
10	JAX	50	4	9	0:19	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	JAX 21	7	25	2:12	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 12	10	88	5:01	Touchdown
13	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:27	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 27	4	9	2:14	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 28	10	74	3:44	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 29	8	29	2:25	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 10	14	89	6:29	Turnover on downs
18	ATL	ATL 21	10	33	4:14	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 18	7	11	0:55	Turnover on downs
20	ATL	JAX 29	2	0	1:19	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 89 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	19/29	190	1	1	1	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	16	108	6.8	2	3.6
Wayne Gallman	4	19	4.8	0	-0.4
Mike Davis	5	16	3.2	0	-1.8
Matt Ryan	4	6	1.5	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Russell Gage	6	7	62	1	25%	6.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	3	27	0	11%	1.3
Kyle Pitts	2	6	26	0	21%	-1.4
Mike Davis	3	4	25	0	14%	-0.3
Tajae Sharpe	2	3	22	0	11%	1.4
Keith Smith	2	2	16	0	7%	1.2
Parker Hesse	1	1	7	0	4%	0.4
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	2	5	0	7%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mykal Walker	5	6	0.0	0	1
Foyesade Oluokun	4	5	0.0	0	0
Adetokunbo Ogundeji	5	4	0.0	0	0
A.J. Terrell	5	1	0.0	0	1
Erik Harris	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	3	0.0	0	0
Darren Hall	2	1	0.0	0	1
Dante Fowler	1	1	1.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	0	0.0	0	1
Duron Harmon	2	0	0.0	1	1

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	23/42	228	1	1	1	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	17	86	5.1	-1.9
Trevor Lawrence	5	39	7.8	3.5
Carlos Hyde	6	16	2.7	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Laquon Treadwell	4	8	53	0	20%	-0.1
Marvin Jones	4	7	43	0	17%	-0.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.	5	9	33	0	22%	-2.7
James Robinson	3	4	29	0	10%	1.3
James O'Shaughnessy	3	5	29	0	12%	0.6
Tavon Austin	2	2	21	1	5%	2.8
Chris Manhertz	1	2	11	0	5%	0.2
Dan Arnold	1	1	9	0	2%	0.7
Carlos Hyde	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.3
Dare Ogunbowale	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7
John Brown	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Myles Jack	4	4	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	6	1	0	0
Shaquille Quarterman	5	2	0	0
Nevin Lawson	3	3	0	1
Rudy Ford	4	1	0	0
Andrew Wingard	4	0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	2	1	0	0
Tyson Campbell	2	1	1	3
Malcom Brown	1	2	0	0
Josh Hines-Allen	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -1.5
Closing total: 46
ATL moneyline: -115
JAX moneyline: +105

Falcons closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 46; the game landed 35 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ATL 10 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Urban Meyer