2021 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 25, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Buffalo BillsWinner

New Orleans Saints

BUF -7 ✓U 45 ✓DomeBills closed -7 and covered, winning by 25.

Buffalo Bills 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:19, BUF +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:19BUF — NO BUF ball · 2nd & 6BUF 94%

(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:19BUF +5% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
Q2 · 0:16BUF +4% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 5-K.Alexander (94-C.Jordan) at NO 10. 5-K.Alexander to NO 10 for no gain (1-E.Sanders).
Q2 · 11:37NO +3% win prob(11:37) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis ran ob at NO 20 for 26 yards (21-B.Roby). Pass 14, YAC 12
Q2 · 1:51BUF +3% win prob(1:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Gillikin pass incomplete short left to 84-L.Humphrey.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Saints
Offensive plays	62	57
Total yards	361 (edge)	191
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	3.4
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	53% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	55%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.46
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/28, 260 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

11.4 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Trevor SiemianQB

17/29, 163 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

15 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

7/9 for 74 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

2/3 for 47 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 17	5	7	1:57	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 35	11	65	5:54	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 17	8	29	3:48	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 27	7	-1	3:30	Punt
5	NO	NO 38	6	16	2:05	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	BUF 46	7	38	4:00	Turnover on downs
7	NO	NO 21	9	11	2:38	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 26	5	25	2:55	Interception
9	NO	NO 49	4	2	1:26	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 49	7	39	1:39	Interception
11	NO	NO 10	1	0	0:08	End of half
12	BUF	BUF 25	13	66	6:12	Touchdown
13	NO	NO 14	5	4	1:38	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 47	6	53	2:51	Touchdown
15	NO	NO 25	12	65	4:25	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 25	7	20	2:52	Punt
17	NO	NO 12	4	4	1:20	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 49	5	51	2:25	Touchdown
19	NO	NO 25	6	16	1:18	Interception
20	BUF	NO 44	4	5	2:20	Punt
21	NO	NO 8	9	37	4:39	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 66 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	23/28	260	4	2	2	11.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	15	44	2.9	-4.7
Josh Allen	8	43	5.4	4.8
Matt Breida	9	26	2.9	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	7	9	74	1	35%	0.2
Gabe Davis	2	3	47	0	12%	0.0
Cole Beasley	5	5	46	0	19%	3.0
Dawson Knox	3	3	32	2	12%	5.9
Matt Breida	2	2	29	1	8%	3.7
Emmanuel Sanders	3	3	28	0	12%	2.9
Devin Singletary	1	1	4	0	4%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Matt Milano	5	2	0.0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	4	3	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	1	3	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	3	1	0.5	1
Gregory Rousseau	2	2	0.0	0
Mario Addison	2	2	1.0	0
Levi Wallace	1	2	0.0	0
Dane Jackson	2	1	0.0	0
Siran Neal	1	1	0.0	0
Andre Smith	1	1	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Siemian	17/29	163	1	1	2	-5.1
Blake Gillikin	0/1	0	0	0	0	-2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tony Jones	16	27	1.7	-9.1
Ty Montgomery	6	14	2.3	-3.7
Trevor Siemian	3	3	1.0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	3	5	47	0	18%	1.1
Ty Montgomery	5	7	31	0	25%	-0.0
Tre'Quan Smith	4	5	31	0	18%	0.1
Marquez Callaway	2	4	24	0	14%	0.8
Nick Vannett	1	1	11	1	4%	2.4
Adam Prentice	1	1	10	0	4%	-0.6
Deonte Harty	1	5	9	0	18%	-6.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marcus Williams	4	5	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	4	4	0.0	0	0
Bradley Roby	7	1	0.0	1	1
Marshon Lattimore	4	1	0.0	0	1
Paulson Adebo	4	0	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	3	1	0.0	0	0
Carl Granderson	2	1	1.0	0	0
Shy Tuttle	2	1	0.0	0	0
Zack Baun	2	1	0.0	0	0
Pete Werner	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7
Closing total: 45
BUF moneyline: -270
NO moneyline: +235

Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: BUF 4 days · NO 4 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Sean Payton