For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 25, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 12
It turned at Q2 3:19, 2nd and 6, on Bradley Roby — 5.3 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:19, Saints +5.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:19 · 2nd and 6
Bradley Roby
Saints
(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
5.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dawson Knox's 7-yard touchdown catch with 7:15 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Nick Vannett11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Siemian · two-point no good+624–66 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categorySaints
Bills ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 62 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Saints’s 57 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Saints 1.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 42.9% in week 8 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.2 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.6% in week 11 against 8.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.7% in week 11 against 45.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-3.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.8 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 62 snaps
Saints-14.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.8 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 91%
Tendencies room →Bills45.8%leaned — ran early · −14.3 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 48 early downs
Saints59.0%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
Saints66.7%leaned — went for it · +33.9 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bills14.7%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Saints8.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 33.9 points above their season mean of 32.8% and 1.5 times their own 23.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
23/28, 260 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
11.4 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected
Passing · NO
17/29, 163 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.1 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dawson Knox banked 11.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 26.7 | +6.1 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 23/28, 260 yd, 4 TD, 2 INT · 8 car, 43 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.4 | +2.4 | 82% | 74% | 35% | 47% | 7/9, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 18.2 | +11.5 | 91% | 79% | 12% | 6% | 3/3, 32 yd, 2 TD |
| Matt BreidaRB | 13.5 | +3.6 | 32% | 24% | 8% | 1% | 9 car, 26 yd · 2/2, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Featured Receiver | 9.6 | +1.6 | 70% | 71% | 19% | 20% | 5/5, 46 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.5 | −3.2 | 51% | 62% | 25% | 0% | 6 car, 14 yd · 5/7, 31 yd |
| Trevor SiemianQB · Starter QB | 8.8 | −1.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/29, 163 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 3 yd |
| Nick VannettTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +5.5 | 37% | 26% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −1.0 | 47% | 53% | 18% | 29% | 3/5, 47 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | −0.6 | 79% | 82% | 18% | 26% | 4/5, 31 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 6.7 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −5.7 | 68% | 65% | 4% | 1% | 15 car, 44 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | 0.0 | 77% | 76% | 12% | 11% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −1.3 | 60% | 65% | 14% | 28% | 2/4, 24 yd |
| Tony JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 2.7 | −5.5 | 37% | 15% | 0% | — | 16 car, 27 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 2.0 | +0.5 | 26% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Deonte HartyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −5.2 | 40% | 50% | 18% | 21% | 1/5, 9 yd |
| Taiwan JonesRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Marquez StevensonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
Q2 3:19 · Bills · 2nd & 6 at BUF 41 · gained nothing · -3.83 EP · −10.3% win probability
148 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills6
Saints0Bills7Saints0Bills10Saints0Bills16Saints0Bills17Saints0Bills23Saints0Bills24Saints0Bills24Saints6Bills30Saints6Bills31Saints6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/28 | 260 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +11.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 | +4.8 |
| Matt Breida |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 74 | 1 | 35% | +0.2 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 17/29 | 163 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −5.1 |
| Blake Gillikin | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_12_BUF_NO
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 25.
Total closed 45; the game landed 37 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| 9 |
| 26 |
| 2.9 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| +0.0 |
| Cole Beasley | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 19% | +3.0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 12% | +5.9 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 8% | +3.7 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | +2.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | +0.0 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Gregory Rousseau | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Addison | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siran Neal | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Smith | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Jones | 16 | 27 | 1.7 | 0 | −9.1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 18% | +1.1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 25% | −0.0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 18% | +0.1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 14% | +0.8 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 4% | +2.4 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 18% | −6.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Williams | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Paulson Adebo | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
