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Buffalo Bills 31, Saints 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 3:19, 2nd and 6, on Bradley Roby — 5.3 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:19 · 2nd and 6
Bradley Roby
Saints
(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
Dome
Bills closed -7 and covered, winning by 25.
Buffalo Bills 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:19, Saints +5.3% win probability on one snap.
5.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Gabe DavisBillsQ2 11:37(11:37) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis ran ob at NO 20 for 26 yards (21-B.Roby). Pass 14, YAC 12
3.0pts
Kwon AlexanderSaintsQ2 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 5-K.Alexander (94-C.Jordan) at NO 10. 5-K.Alexander to NO 10 for no gain (1-E.Sanders).
3.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 28% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Bills150 of 158 plays carry both curves
(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
Swing +5.3 for SaintsExpected points +3.83 for SaintsThe model had Saints 10 points higher than the market did.play 62
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:19BUF +5% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
2nd · 0:16BUF +4% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 5-K.Alexander (94-C.Jordan) at NO 10. 5-K.Alexander to NO 10 for no gain (1-E.Sanders).
2nd · 11:37NO +3% win prob(11:37) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis ran ob at NO 20 for 26 yards (21-B.Roby). Pass 14, YAC 12
2nd · 1:51BUF +3% win prob(1:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Gillikin pass incomplete short left to 84-L.Humphrey.
1st · 4:10BUF +3% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian sacked at NO 41 for -9 yards (97-M.Addison).
1st · 13:13BUF +3% win prob(13:13) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to BUF 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 35 for 11 yards (53-Z.Baun).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dawson Knox's 7-yard touchdown catch with 7:15 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Bills: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.34Saints: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Bills: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.26Saints: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Bills: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.46Saints: −0.46 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 62 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Saints’s 57 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Saints 1.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 42.9% in week 8 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.2 points.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.6% in week 11 against 8.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.7% in week 11 against 45.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Saints8.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 33.9 points above their season mean of 32.8% and 1.5 times their own 23.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).
Q2 3:19 · Bills · 2nd & 6 at BUF 41 · gained nothing · -3.83 EP · −10.3% win probability
148 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
36%
Yards
551
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2256%
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR26-0.2677%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12-0.2558%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.519%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1517%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 24
Bills6Saints0
Bills7Saints0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Saints 6
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 17 to midfield
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 38
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Bills 41
Bills10Saints0
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Saints 13
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 41
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Bills 49
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Saints 7
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Bills16Saints0
Bills17Saints0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Saints 5
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Saints 18
Bills23Saints0
Bills24Saints0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Saints 24
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Bills 10
4th quarter42 plays
Bills24Saints6
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 45
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Saints 16
Bills30Saints6
Bills31Saints6
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Saints 21
Intercepted7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 41
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Saints 37
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
