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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina10
BY 23final margin
DolphinsMiami33
Carolina Panthers 10 at Miami Dolphins 33. Final.
Panthers -1 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
Miami Dolphins 33, Panthers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:24, 3rd and 6, on D.J. Moore — 16.4 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:24 · 3rd and 6
D.J. Moore
Panthers
(8:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 2-Dj.Moore to MIA 7 for 64 yards (24-By.Jones).
O 41 ✓
Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:24, Panthers +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jaylen WaddleDolphinsQ2 6:44(6:44) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to CAR 14 for 57 yards (26-D.Jackson).
12.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ2 0:12(:12) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at CAR 27, touched at CAR 40, RECOVERED by CAR-49-F.Luvu at CAR 49. 49-F.Luvu to MIA 23 for 28 yards (87-I.Ford).
12.8pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Panthers165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(8:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 2-Dj.Moore to MIA 7 for 64 yards (24-By.Jones).
Swing −16.4 for DolphinsExpected points −5.21 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 12 points higher than the market did.play 20
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:24MIA +16% win prob(8:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 2-Dj.Moore to MIA 7 for 64 yards (24-By.Jones).
2nd · 6:44MIA +13% win prob(6:44) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to CAR 14 for 57 yards (26-D.Jackson).
2nd · 0:12CAR +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at CAR 27, touched at CAR 40, RECOVERED by CAR-49-F.Luvu at CAR 49. 49-F.Luvu to MIA 23 for 28 yards (87-I.Ford).
1st · 11:01CAR +12% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at CAR 34 for -10 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], recovered by MIA-77-J.Davis at CAR 42.
2nd · 9:06MIA +12% win prob(9:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:02MIA +10% win prob(13:02) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to CAR 29 for 25 yards (31-J.Burris).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaylen Waddle's 9-yard touchdown catch with 9:06 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:18Justin Coleman·2-yd return TD2-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+70–7
2nd0:01Zane Gonzalez·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap J.Jansen+310–21
3rd4:14Myles Gaskin·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+610–27
4th11:03Jason Sanders·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+310–30
4th3:45Jason Sanders·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+310–33
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryDolphins
Panthers1–8Dolphins
198Total yards317
3.7Yards per play4.5
31%Success rate44%
29%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays3
10First downs20
5Sacks taken2
3Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Panthers: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.07Dolphins: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.51Panthers: −0.51 expected points added per play
+0.19Dolphins: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Panthers: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.04Dolphins: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 54 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 70 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Dolphins 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 30.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 22.5% in week 1.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
MIA's pass rate over expected, −7.3 pts, is past their previous low of −2.9 pts in week 11 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate, 44.4%, is past their previous low of 48.1% in week 11 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Dolphins30.6%
leaned — got home · +11.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.6%, 11.9 points above their season mean of 18.7% and 1.5 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:01) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at CAR 34 for -10 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], recovered by MIA-77-J.Davis at CAR 42.
Q1 11:01 · Dolphins · 3rd & 5 at CAR 24 · lost 18 · -3.77 EP · −13.6% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
35%
Yards
513
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR49-0.0943%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.5173%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR7-0.4186%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.7229%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0720%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.5060%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Panthers 24
Panthers0Dolphins6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Panthers 9
Panthers0Dolphins7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Panthers6Dolphins7
Panthers7Dolphins7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Dolphins 1
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Panthers 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Panthers 29
2nd quarter61 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Panthers 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Panthers7Dolphins13
Panthers7Dolphins14
Touchdown4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 26
Panthers7Dolphins20
Panthers7Dolphins21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Panthers 3
Punt6 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Dolphins 46
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 28
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Dolphins 32 to the Panthers 27
Panthers10Dolphins21
Field goal1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
Panthers10Dolphins27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Panthers 3
Punt6 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Panthers 29
4th quarter41 plays
Panthers10Dolphins30
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 24
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 39
Panthers10Dolphins33
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Panthers 14
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Dolphins 11
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -1
Closing total
41
Panthers moneyline
-119
Dolphins moneyline
+108
Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 43 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 74°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Matt Rhule vs Brian Flores
1st · 9:18
CAR +10% win prob
(9:18) 10-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 45-D.Riley, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by MIA-27-J.Coleman at CAR 2. 27-J.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:39CAR +10% win prob(10:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right intended for 2-Dj.Moore INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at CAR 25. 25-X.Howard to CAR 9 for 16 yards (2-Dj.Moore).
