2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Miami DolphinsWinner

CAR -1 upsetO 41 ✓Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 33–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:24, MIA +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:24CAR — MIA CAR ball · 3rd & 6MIA 60%

(8:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 2-Dj.Moore to MIA 7 for 64 yards (24-By.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:24MIA +16% win prob(8:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 2-Dj.Moore to MIA 7 for 64 yards (24-By.Jones).
Q2 · 6:44MIA +13% win prob(6:44) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle to CAR 14 for 57 yards (26-D.Jackson).
Q2 · 0:12CAR +13% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at CAR 27, touched at CAR 40, RECOVERED by CAR-49-F.Luvu at CAR 49. 49-F.Luvu to MIA 23 for 28 yards (87-I.Ford).
Q1 · 11:01CAR +12% win prob(11:01) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at CAR 34 for -10 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], recovered by MIA-77-J.Davis at CAR 42.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Dolphins
Offensive plays	54	70
Total yards	198	317 (edge)
Yards per play	3.7	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.31	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	31%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.51	0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	4/14	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	10	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

27/31, 230 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.4 expected points added · +13.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

5/21, 92 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-13.1 expected points added · -42.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

16 att, 49 yds, 2 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Phillip LindsayRB

12 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

9/10 for 137 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 12.7 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/10 for 103 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	10	18	4:51	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 5	4	4	0:58	Defensive touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	8	75	3:10	Touchdown
4	MIA	MIA 25	9	22	4:16	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 9	7	31	3:59	Interception
6	MIA	MIA 47	4	5	0:56	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 13	2	1	1:23	Interception
8	MIA	CAR 9	4	9	1:26	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 25	5	-2	1:42	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 27	7	73	2:53	Touchdown
11	CAR	CAR 25	5	0	1:00	Punt
12	MIA	MIA 32	7	17	1:52	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 15	6	13	0:41	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 32	6	41	0:52	Fumble
15	CAR	MIA 23	1	0	0:01	Turnover on downs
16	CAR	CAR 25	9	29	3:25	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 20	14	75	7:24	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 25	5	-14	1:39	Punt
19	MIA	CAR 47	10	34	6:34	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 25	6	4	1:55	Interception
21	MIA	CAR 37	10	23	5:22	Turnover on downs
22	CAR	CAR 25	11	57	2:33	Turnover on downs
23	MIA	MIA 23	2	0	1:08	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	5/21	92	0	2	1	-13.1
P.J. Walker	5/10	87	0	1	4	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	10	35	3.5	0	-1.9
Sean Chandler	1	14	14.0	0	3.5
Chuba Hubbard	2	6	3.0	0	-0.1
Cam Newton	3	5	1.7	1	1.5
Ameer Abdullah	2	4	2.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	4	10	103	32%	0.0
Brandon Zylstra	1	2	24	6%	-0.8
Ameer Abdullah	2	6	20	19%	-1.7
Robbie Chosen	1	4	15	13%	-2.0
Alex Erickson	1	1	13	3%	0.0
Tommy Tremble	1	3	4	10%	-0.9
Christian McCaffrey	0	1	0	3%	-0.8
Chuba Hubbard	0	1	0	3%	-0.9
Ian Thomas	0	3	0	10%	-4.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaq Thompson	8	3	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	10	1	0.0	1
Jeremy Chinn	5	2	0.0	1
Haason Reddick	2	3	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	3	0.0	0
Juston Burris	3	1	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	1	1.0	0
Myles Hartsfield	2	1	0.0	0
Bravvion Roy	1	2	0.0	0
A.J. Bouye	1	1	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	27/31	230	1	0	2	6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	16	49	3.1	2	1.4
Phillip Lindsay	12	42	3.5	0	-2.2
Salvon Ahmed	5	17	3.4	0	1.4
Durham Smythe	2	3	1.5	0	1.3
Tua Tagovailoa	4	0	0.0	0	-3.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	9	10	137	1	32%	12.7
Durham Smythe	5	5	32	0	16%	0.6
Albert Wilson	5	6	17	0	19%	-2.9
Mike Gesicki	3	3	17	0	10%	2.1
Isaiah Ford	1	2	11	0	6%	-0.4
Salvon Ahmed	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9
Preston Williams	1	1	4	0	3%	0.4
Myles Gaskin	2	2	3	0	6%	-0.1
Mack Hollins	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Rowe	1	4	0.0	0	1
Christian Wilkins	1	3	1.0	0	0
Jaelan Phillips	3	1	3.0	0	1
Duke Riley	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jerome Baker	2	1	0.0	0	0
Raekwon Davis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	2	1	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	1	1.0	0	1
Nik Needham	0	2	0.0	1	1
Javaris Davis	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -1
Closing total: 41
CAR moneyline: -119
MIA moneyline: +108

Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 43 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 74°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CAR 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Brian Flores