2021 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 25, 2021 · Ford Field

Chicago BearsWinner

Detroit Lions

CHI -2 pushU 41.5 ✓DomeBears closed -2 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Chicago Bears 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, DET +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:01CHI — DET CHI ball · 4th & 10CHI 76%

(:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:01DET +24% win prob(:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q2 · 5:21DET +14% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 11-D.Mooney to DET 17 for 52 yards (31-D.Marlowe; 25-W.Harris).
Q3 · 1:51DET +12% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 88-T.Hockenson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:33DET +11% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 8-J.Reynolds for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Lions
Offensive plays	66	45
Total yards	384 (edge)	239
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	36%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.37	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	1

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Andy DaltonQB

24/39, 317 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

12.0 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

21/25, 171 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.0 expected points added · +11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

15 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

17 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-5.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Darnell MooneyWR

5/8 for 123 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Josh ReynoldsWR

3/5 for 70 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 20	7	12	2:18	Punt
2	DET	DET 31	8	64	3:16	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 17	9	32	4:09	Punt
4	DET	DET 4	4	2	2:16	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 16	10	74	4:37	Turnover on downs
6	DET	DET 33	12	37	8:03	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 31	3	69	0:52	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 26	5	13	2:06	Fumble
9	CHI	DET 39	4	16	0:36	Interception
10	DET	DET 20	4	4	0:38	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 46	7	29	1:09	Turnover on downs
12	DET	DET 21	5	6	2:14	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 43	9	42	4:08	Turnover on downs
14	DET	DET 43	4	5	1:32	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 20	4	8	1:59	Punt
16	DET	DET 21	8	64	3:21	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 19	10	32	4:38	Punt
18	DET	DET 10	6	44	3:38	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 21	18	70	8:30	Turnover on downs

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 74 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	24/39	317	1	1	1	12.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	17	46	2.7	-5.6
Andy Dalton	6	11	1.8	-3.2
Khalil Herbert	4	9	2.3	-1.5
Darnell Mooney	1	2	2.0	-0.6
Jakeem Grant	1	0	0.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	5	8	123	0	22%	6.3
Cole Kmet	8	11	65	0	30%	0.6
Damiere Byrd	4	5	42	0	14%	2.1
Jimmy Graham	2	3	34	1	8%	3.0
David Montgomery	3	3	28	0	8%	2.9
Jakeem Grant	2	4	25	0	11%	1.9
Jesse James	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Marquise Goodwin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Isaiah Coulter	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Christian Jones	3	3	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	5	1	0.0	0
Alec Ogletree	2	3	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	2	2	0.0	0
Robert Quinn	3	1	1.0	0
Eddie Goldman	1	2	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	3	0	0.0	0
Xavier Crawford	2	1	0.0	0
Artie Burns	2	0	0.0	1
Deon Bush	1	0	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	21/25	171	2	0	1	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	15	65	4.3	-1.6
Godwin Igwebuike	1	11	11.0	0.8
D'Andre Swift	3	0	0.0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Reynolds	3	5	70	1	20%	5.1
T.J. Hockenson	3	3	35	1	12%	3.1
Amon-Ra St. Brown	4	4	23	0	16%	1.1
Jamaal Williams	5	5	18	0	20%	-0.4
Kalif Raymond	3	4	16	0	16%	-2.4
D'Andre Swift	3	3	9	0	12%	0.1
Godwin Igwebuike	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Alex Anzalone	5	4	0	2
Dean Marlowe	3	4	0	1
Will Harris	4	2	0	1
Austin Bryant	3	2	0	0
Jerry Jacobs	4	1	0	1
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	3	2	0	0
Tracy Walker III	2	2	0	1
Amani Oruwariye	2	1	1	2
Anthony Pittman	2	1	0	0
Alim McNeill	2	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -2
Closing total: 41.5
CHI moneyline: -129
DET moneyline: +115

Bears closed -2 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CHI 4 days · DET 4 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.