For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bears151 of 161 plays carry both curves
(:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Swing −24.5 for LionsExpected points −0.06 for LionsThe model had Lions 5 points higher than the market did.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01DET +24% win prob(:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
2nd · 5:21DET +14% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 11-D.Mooney to DET 17 for 52 yards (31-D.Marlowe; 25-W.Harris).
3rd · 1:51DET +12% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 88-T.Hockenson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:33DET +11% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 8-J.Reynolds for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:28CHI +11% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 39 for -8 yards (94-R.Quinn). Penalty on DET-58-P.Sewell, Offensive Holding, declined. Chicago challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 39 for -8 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn) [94-R.Quinn], RECOVERED by CHI-99-T.Gipson at DET 39. Penalty on DET-58-P.Sewell, Offensive Holding, declined. Fumble Forced by CHI-99-T.Gipson.
4th · 6:03DET +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 28-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:33Josh Reynolds·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–7
2nd13:27Cairo Santos·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–7
2nd4:33Jimmy Graham·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+710–7
2nd0:04Cairo Santos·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+313–7
3rd1:51T.J. Hockenson·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+713–14
4th0:01Cairo Santos·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+316–14
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryLions
Bears4–1Lions
384Total yards239
5.8Yards per play5.3
36%Success rate40%
42%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays3
21First downs13
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 4–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Bears: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.03Lions: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Bears: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.37Bears: −0.37 expected points added per play
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Lions’s 45 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Lions 2.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −4.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Lions9.3%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DET's pass rate over expected, -2.0 pts against a season mean of -5.5 pts — and DET swings 7.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
65Cody WhitehairG · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Larry BoromT · Every snap100%70 snaps
67Sam MustipherC · Every snap100%70 snaps
68James DanielsG · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Jason PetersT · Every snap100%70 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
11Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time87%61 snaps
85Cole KmetTE · Full-time86%60 snaps
32David MontgomeryRB · Full-time84%59 snaps
10Damiere ByrdWR · Heavy rotation76%53 snaps
84Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational46%32 snaps
18Jesse JamesTE · Rotational33%23 snaps
17Jakeem GrantWR · Rotational27%19 snaps
82Isaiah CoulterWR · Situational20%14 snaps
80Jimmy GrahamTE · Situational20%14 snaps
24Khalil HerbertRB · Situational14%10 snaps
81J.P. HoltzTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mario EdwardsDTAkiem HicksDTTeez TaborFSJustin FieldsQBDamien WilliamsRBJesper HorstedTEAllen RobinsonWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Cairo Santos+29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 0:01 · Bears · 4th & goal at DET 10 · gained nothing · +0.06 EP · +29.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 79 yards from the DET 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
35%
Yards
617
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0274%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0364%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1320%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.2333%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.4522%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 32
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Bears0Lions6
Bears0Lions7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Bears 35
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 49
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Lions 31
2nd quarter47 plays
Bears3Lions7
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 10
Punt15 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Bears 29
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Bears9Lions7
Bears10Lions7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Lions 17
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Lions 23
Punt6 plays
Bears13Lions7
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Lions 25
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 27
No good10 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Lions 25
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Lions 49
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Bears13Lions13
Bears13Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Bears 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 35
4th quarter40 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Lions 47
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Bears16Lions14
Field goal24 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Lions 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
