2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -3 ✓U 47 ✓Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Baltimore Ravens 16–10. Biggest swing: Q2 0:53, CLE +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:53CLE — BAL CLE ball · 2nd & 10BAL 59%

(:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at BAL 39 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 45, RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 49.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:53CLE +15% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at BAL 39 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 45, RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 49.
Q2 · 1:02CLE +12% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Delpit at BAL 33. 22-G.Delpit to BAL 28 for 5 yards (89-M.Andrews).
Q3 · 9:56BAL +11% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:34BAL +10% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to CLE 13 for 39 yards (33-R.Harrison) [90-J.Clowney]. Penalty on CLE-33-R.Harrison, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Ravens
Offensive plays	57	74
Total yards	262	305 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.20	-0.13 (edge)
Success rate	33%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	12	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

18/37, 247 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.2 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

20/32, 165 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-11.0 expected points added · -5.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Devonta FreemanRB

16 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

6/10 for 111 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

4/10 for 65 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · -6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 15	9	57	3:19	Turnover on downs
2	BAL	BAL 36	7	11	3:45	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 20	9	12	3:54	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 25	9	21	3:38	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 25	8	10	2:50	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 35	17	64	8:41	Turnover on downs
7	CLE	CLE 25	3	40	0:49	Fumble
8	BAL	BAL 35	2	13	0:35	Interception
9	CLE	CLE 47	7	25	1:27	Turnover on downs
10	BAL	BAL 25	2	0	0:06	Interception
11	CLE	BAL 28	2	-17	0:11	Fumble
12	BAL	BAL 49	4	21	0:24	Interception
13	CLE	CLE 33	4	4	0:20	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 30	1	0	0:01	End of half
15	BAL	BAL 25	12	70	5:12	Touchdown
16	CLE	CLE 25	6	21	1:52	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 14	10	25	4:47	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 13	6	72	2:30	Touchdown
19	BAL	BAL 25	6	22	2:45	Interception
20	CLE	CLE 13	8	26	4:25	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 14	4	3	1:04	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 30	4	5	0:57	Punt
23	BAL	BAL 24	11	55	5:18	Turnover on downs
24	CLE	CLE 25	5	7	0:22	Turnover on downs
25	BAL	CLE 32	2	0	0:48	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 72 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	18/37	247	1	0	2	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	7	20	2.9	-0.5
Nick Chubb	8	16	2.0	-3.9
Baker Mayfield	2	4	2.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	6	10	111	0	29%	5.7
Harrison Bryant	3	3	50	0	9%	2.7
David Njoku	3	5	35	1	15%	0.7
Nick Chubb	2	4	23	0	12%	0.2
Ja'Marcus Bradley	2	2	18	0	6%	1.6
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	5	10	0	15%	-1.3
Kareem Hunt	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.2
Demetric Felton	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6
Austin Hooper	0	3	0	0	9%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	6	7	0.5	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	10	2	0.0	1	1
Anthony Walker	6	4	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	2	3	1.0	0	1
John Johnson	3	2	0.0	1	1
Sione Takitaki	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jordan Elliott	1	2	0.5	0	0
Greg Newsome	3	0	0.0	0	0
Takk McKinley	1	2	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	20/32	165	1	4	2	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17	68	4.0	0.7
Devonta Freeman	16	52	3.3	-1.0
Latavius Murray	8	14	1.8	-1.3
Devin Duvernay	1	13	13.0	1.4
Ty'Son Williams	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	4	10	65	1	31%	-6.7
Marquise Brown	8	10	51	0	31%	2.2
Rashod Bateman	4	4	31	0	13%	0.1
Devonta Freeman	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Sammy Watkins	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Devin Duvernay	1	2	2	0	6%	-2.3
Ty'Son Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Patrick Ricard	1	2	0	0	6%	-1.8
Tylan Wallace	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marlon Humphrey	5	1	0.0	2
Patrick Queen	6	0	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	2	3	0.0	1
Mark Andrews	3	1	0.0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	2	1.0	1
Chuck Clark	2	2	0.0	2
Nnamdi Madubuike	1	1	0.0	1
Geno Stone	1	1	0.0	0
Odafe Oweh	2	0	1.0	0
Justin Houston	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 47
CLE moneyline: +140
BAL moneyline: -156

Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 47; the game landed 26 — under by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CLE 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.