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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland10
BY 6final margin
RavensBaltimore16
Cleveland Browns 10 at Baltimore Ravens 16. Final.
Ravens -3 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
Baltimore Ravens 16, Browns 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:53, 2nd and 10, on Baker Mayfield — 14.5 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:53 · 2nd and 10
Baker Mayfield
Ravens
(:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at BAL 39 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 45, RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 49.
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Baltimore Ravens 16–10. Biggest swing: Q2 0:53, Ravens +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Grant DelpitBrownsQ2 1:02(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Delpit at BAL 33. 22-G.Delpit to BAL 28 for 5 yards (89-M.Andrews).
11.9pts
Mark AndrewsRavensQ3 9:56(9:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Ravens at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Ravens at 4 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 13 on third down.
(:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at BAL 39 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 45, RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 49.
Swing +14.5 for RavensExpected points +4.81 for RavensThe model had Browns 3 points higher than the market did.play 82
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:53CLE +15% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at BAL 39 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 45, RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 49.
2nd · 1:02CLE +12% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Delpit at BAL 33. 22-G.Delpit to BAL 28 for 5 yards (89-M.Andrews).
3rd · 9:56BAL +11% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:34BAL +10% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to CLE 13 for 39 yards (33-R.Harrison) [90-J.Clowney]. Penalty on CLE-33-R.Harrison, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 13:04BAL +9% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry pushed ob at BAL 32 for 36 yards (21-B.Stephens).
2nd · 3:14CLE +8% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 80-J.Landry. 80-J.Landry sacked at BAL 37 for -3 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh) [99-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by BAL-6-P.Queen at BAL 35.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 52-yard field goal with 0:29 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:29Justin Tucker·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.MooreLead never changed again+30–3
2nd3:56Justin Tucker·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+30–6
2nd1:07Chase McLaughlin·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–6
4th1:15Justin Tucker·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+310–16
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryRavens
Browns2–5Ravens
262Total yards305
4.6Yards per play4.1
33%Success rate42%
31%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays4
12First downs18
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers4
The read
Ravens ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Browns: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.13Ravens: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Browns: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.22Ravens: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Browns: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.04Ravens: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 57 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Ravens’s 74 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Browns 1, Ravens 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 69.8%, is past their previous high of 61.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 11.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Ravens14.6%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.8%, 18.0 points above their season mean of 51.8% and 2.1 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%60 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%60 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%60 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Full-time93%56 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Full-time90%54 snaps
62Blake HanceG · Full-time83%50 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation75%45 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield sacked−22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at BAL 39 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 45, RECOVERED by BAL-99-O.Oweh at BAL 49.
Q2 0:53 · Browns · 2nd & 10 at BAL 28 · lost 17 · -4.81 EP · −21.6% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 87 yards from the CLE 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
35%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.1438%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2183%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.9389%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.3878%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR15+0.0633%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13-0.0131%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.2018%
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Ravens 28
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 47
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 47
Browns0Ravens3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 34
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 36
Browns0Ravens6
Field goal18 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Browns 1
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 34
Intercepted2 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 48
Browns3Ravens6
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Ravens 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost2 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Browns 30
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Browns3Ravens12
Browns3Ravens13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 9
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 47
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Browns 45
Browns9Ravens13
Browns10Ravens13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Ravens 20
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 47
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 41
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 17
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 35
Browns10Ravens16
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Browns 31
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3
Closing total
47
Browns moneyline
+140
Ravens moneyline
-156
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 47; the game landed 26 — under by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the north; partly cloudy.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Browns 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 11:45CLE +8% win prob(11:45) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
4th · 13:01CLE +7% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at CLE 13. 43-J.Johnson to CLE 13 for no gain (89-M.Andrews). CLE-4-A.Walker was injured during the play.
