2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Los Angeles Chargers

Denver BroncosWinner

LAC -2.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 28–13. Biggest swing: Q3 1:29, DEN +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:29LAC — DEN LAC ball · 4th & 4DEN 68%

(1:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-J.Guyton to DEN 19 for 15 yards (31-J.Simmons).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:29DEN +13% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-J.Guyton to DEN 19 for 15 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q4 · 14:37LAC +12% win prob(14:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN -2. Touchback.
Q3 · 7:58LAC +10% win prob(7:58) 6-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
Q2 · 1:22LAC +10% win prob(1:22) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 9-K.Hinton INTERCEPTED by 33-D.James at LAC 48. 33-D.James to DEN 47 for 5 yards (9-K.Hinton). Penalty on DEN-73-C.Fleming, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Broncos
Offensive plays	65	57
Total yards	357 (edge)	303
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	80%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.20 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	7/14	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

28/44, 303 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

11/18, 129 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · -4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

17 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

14 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

7/10 for 85 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

6/8 for 68 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · -4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	11	42	4:02	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 1	4	9	2:03	Punt
3	DEN	50	9	45	4:24	Touchdown
4	LAC	LAC 25	5	7	0:59	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 25	12	70	5:46	Touchdown
6	LAC	LAC 25	11	60	5:43	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 35	4	8	2:10	Punt
8	LAC	LAC 14	6	8	2:18	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 38	3	4	1:19	Interception
10	LAC	DEN 47	7	47	0:45	Touchdown
11	DEN	DEN 25	5	24	0:31	End of half
12	LAC	LAC 25	12	61	7:06	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 43	4	2	1:15	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 25	13	52	7:09	Interception
15	DEN	DEN 20	11	75	5:36	Touchdown
16	LAC	LAC 25	6	38	1:26	Defensive touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 25	11	75	2:54	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 23	9	33	4:34	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	28/44	303	2	2	3	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Herbert	4	36	9.0	3.7
Austin Ekeler	12	31	2.6	-2.3
Joshua Kelley	1	5	5.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	7	10	85	0	23%	0.3
Austin Ekeler	6	8	68	1	18%	-4.7
Mike Williams	4	8	39	0	18%	2.8
Josh Palmer	2	2	25	0	5%	2.0
Jared Cook	2	5	25	1	11%	-1.6
Jalen Guyton	2	3	23	0	7%	3.3
Stephen Anderson	2	2	18	0	5%	1.1
Joshua Kelley	2	3	15	0	7%	-0.2
Donald Parham	1	1	5	0	2%	0.2
Darius Bradwell	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
Tre' McKitty	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyzir White	6	3	0.0	0	0
Justin Jones	1	5	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	4	2	0.0	1	1
Nasir Adderley	3	3	0.0	0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	2	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Covington	2	3	0.0	0	0
Drue Tranquill	2	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Davis	2	2	0.0	0	1
Joey Bosa	2	1	1.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	0	2	0.0	0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	11/18	129	1	0	0	7.8
Drew Lock	4/7	26	0	1	1	-5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	17	83	4.9	0	1.5
Javonte Williams	14	54	3.9	1	0.4
Teddy Bridgewater	2	10	5.0	1	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Javonte Williams	3	4	57	0	17%	3.6
Tim Patrick	2	3	26	0	13%	0.7
Jerry Jeudy	2	3	25	0	13%	1.6
Courtland Sutton	2	3	17	0	13%	2.1
Noah Fant	3	4	12	0	17%	-1.6
Albert Okwuegbunam	1	2	12	0	9%	0.3
Melvin Gordon	1	2	5	0	9%	-1.8
Eric Saubert	1	1	1	1	4%	1.3
Kendall Hinton	0	1	0	0	4%	-4.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Fuller	8	1	0.0	0	0
Kenny Young	4	3	0.0	0	0
Baron Browning	5	2	0.0	0	1
Justin Simmons	6	1	0.0	0	2
Patrick Surtain	4	1	0.0	2	2
McTelvin Agim	1	1	1.0	0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	1	0.0	0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	1	1.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	2	0	0.0	0	1
Stephen Weatherly	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
LAC moneyline: -141
DEN moneyline: +127

Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 41 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: LAC 7 days · DEN 14 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs Vic Fangio

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.