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2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Los Angeles Rams

28

Green Bay PackersWinner

36

LA -2 upsetO 47 ✓

Green Bay Packers 36–28. Biggest swing: Q2 12:53, GB +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑LA ↓
Q2 · 12:53LA — GB LA ball · 3rd & 8GB 74%

(12:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 12:53GB +18% win prob(12:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark].
  2. Q2 · 8:22GB +15% win prob(8:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to GB 22, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at GB 25.
  3. Q1 · 3:49LA +15% win prob(3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 12 for -9 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-91-P.Smith at LA 12. 91-P.Smith to LA 7 for 5 yards (79-R.Havenstein). FUMBLES (79-R.Havenstein), and recovers at LA 6. Penalty on LA-77-A.Whitworth, Offensive Holding, declined.
  4. Q3 · 5:02GB +13% win prob(5:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Koski to LA 28 for 13 yards (49-D.Dafney, 22-S.Jean-Charles). FUMBLES (49-D.Dafney), RECOVERED by GB-51-K.Barnes at LA 28. 51-K.Barnes to LA 27 for 1 yard (38-B.Howell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRamsPackers
Offensive plays6178
Total yards356400 (edge)
Yards per play5.8 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play-0.120.07 (edge)
Success rate44% (edge)40%
Dropback rate69%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.060.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.23-0.08 (edge)
Third downs4/137/19 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)34 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1620 (edge)
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

28/45, 307 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

21/38, 302 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

20 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

16 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

8/9 for 104 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

7/10 for 96 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 267152:29Punt
2GBGB 616568:08Punt
3LALA 152-30:41Fumble
4GBLA 6461:31Touchdown
5LALA 20591:49Turnover on downs
6GBLA 29431:53Turnover on downs
7LALA 195810:47Touchdown
8GBGB 258663:02Turnover on downs
9LALA 33581:27Punt
10LAGB 25470:53Turnover on downs
11GBGB 118892:59Touchdown
12LALA 2510752:53Touchdown
13GBGB 219231:17Punt
14LALA 10100:11End of half
15GBGB 2515877:42Touchdown
16LALA 25500:43Punt
17GBGB 344-21:48Punt
18GBLA 276142:19Turnover on downs
19LALA 25430:36Defensive touchdown
20LALA 209822:00Touchdown
21GBGB 195142:11Punt
22LALA 16251:52Punt
23GBGB 337133:13Punt
24LALA 20521:12Punt
25GBGB 458313:19Turnover on downs
26LALA 3211522:47Turnover on downs
27GBLA 43200:18End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 89 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford21/38302312-2.3
Cooper Kupp0/10000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Darrell Henderson16553.40-4.4
Sony Michel3144.70-0.0
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Cooper Kupp71096026%0.4
Van Jefferson3993123%5.3
Odell Beckham51081126%-0.5
Darrell Henderson4418110%2.5
Sony Michel111103%0.5
Tyler Higbee153013%-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Troy Reeder570.000
Darious Williams600.001
Jordan Fuller240.002
Aaron Donald330.000
Jalen Ramsey410.000
Greg Gaines321.000
Nick Scott320.001
Ernest Jones230.000
A'Shawn Robinson130.000
Von Miller220.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers28/453072018.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
A.J. Dillon20693.50-0.4
Aaron Jones10232.30-3.3
Aaron Rodgers200.010.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams89104020%9.0
Randall Cobb4595111%6.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling4950020%-0.9
A.J. Dillon5521111%0.9
Josiah Deguara241309%0.3
Allen Lazard2613014%-4.1
Equanimeous St. Brown12705%0.0
Marcedes Lewis23407%-1.8
Aaron Jones01002%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Krys Barnes620.001
Kenny Clark331.000
Rasul Douglas330.014
Henry Black320.000
Adrian Amos400.000
De'Vondre Campbell400.000
Rashan Gary211.000
Ladarius Hamilton210.000
Eric Stokes300.002
Dominique Dafney110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -2
Closing total
47
LA moneyline
-120
GB moneyline
+108

Rams closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 64 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
37°F, wind 14 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
LA 13 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Matt LaFleur