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Los Angeles Rams 28 at Green Bay Packers 36. Final.
Rams -2 upsetO 47 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
Green Bay Packers 36, Rams 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 12:53, 3rd and 8, on Van Jefferson — 17.8 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 12:53 · 3rd and 8
Van Jefferson
Rams
(12:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark].
Rams closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 36–28. Biggest swing: Q2 12:53, Rams +17.8% win probability on one snap.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matthew StaffordPackersQ1 3:49(3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 12 for -9 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-91-P.Smith at LA 12. 91-P.Smith to LA 7 for 5 yards (79-R.Havenstein). FUMBLES (79-R.Havenstein), and recovers at LA 6. Penalty on LA-77-A.Whitworth, Offensive Holding, declined.
14.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetRamsQ2 8:22(8:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to GB 22, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at GB 25.
15.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Rams184 of 197 plays carry both curves
(12:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark].
Swing −17.8 for PackersExpected points −7.42 for PackersThe model had Packers 9 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:53GB +18% win prob(12:53) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark].
2nd · 8:22GB +15% win prob(8:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to GB 22, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-31-R.Rochell at GB 25.
1st · 3:49LA +15% win prob(3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 12 for -9 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-91-P.Smith at LA 12. 91-P.Smith to LA 7 for 5 yards (79-R.Havenstein). FUMBLES (79-R.Havenstein), and recovers at LA 6. Penalty on LA-77-A.Whitworth, Offensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 5:02GB +13% win prob(5:02) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to LA 15, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Koski to LA 28 for 13 yards (49-D.Dafney, 22-S.Jean-Charles). FUMBLES (49-D.Dafney), RECOVERED by GB-51-K.Barnes at LA 28. 51-K.Barnes to LA 27 for 1 yard (38-B.Howell).
2nd · 12:00GB +11% win prob(12:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to LA 14 for 54 yards (11-D.Williams) [99-A.Donald].
2nd · 5:44GB +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Rodgers's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:16 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:16Aaron Rodgers·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd13:34Mason Crosby·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.Wirtel+30–10
2nd12:53Van Jefferson·79-yd TD catch79-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–10
2nd9:44Mason Crosby·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.Wirtel+37–13
2nd7:24Matt Gay·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+310–13
3rd2:32Mason Crosby·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap S.Wirtel+317–30
3rd2:01Rasul Douglas·33-yd defence TD33-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point no good+617–36
4th15:00Odell Beckham·54-yd TD catch54-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point good+825–36
4th0:22Matt Gay·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+328–36
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryPackers
Rams2–7Packers
356Total yards400
5.8Yards per play5.1
44%Success rate40%
31%Third-down rate37%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays4
16First downs20
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Rams: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Rams: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.18Packers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Rams: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.08Packers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Packers’s 78 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, −4.6 pts, is past their previous low of +0.2 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 11 against 50.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Packers11.9%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.7%, 13.5 points above their season mean of 58.2% and 1.4 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford sacked−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at LA 12 for -9 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-91-P.Smith at LA 12. 91-P.Smith to LA 7 for 5 yards (79-R.Havenstein). FUMBLES (79-R.Havenstein), and recovers at LA 6. Penalty on LA-77-A.Whitworth, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 3:49 · Rams · 2nd & 4 at LA 21 · lost 9 · -6.46 EP · −15.5% win probability
182 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 197 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 197 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 89 yards from the GB 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
197 of 197 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
197
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
754
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.1269%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0170%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0718%
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11+0.6182%
snapsepapass rate
197 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
197 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 41
Punt17 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Rams 37
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 21
Rams0Packers6
Rams0Packers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 6 to the Rams 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter58 plays
Rams0Packers10
Field goal3 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams6Packers10
Rams7Packers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 21
Rams7Packers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 9
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Rams 41
Rams10Packers13
Field goal4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 18
Rams10Packers19
Rams10Packers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Rams 7
Rams16Packers20
Rams17Packers20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Packers 6
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Rams17Packers26
Rams17Packers27
Touchdown17 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 5
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Rams17Packers30
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 11
Rams17Packers36
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 28
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 43
4th quarter55 plays
Rams23Packers36
Rams25Packers36
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Packers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 1 to the Rams 26
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 47
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 30
No good10 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Rams 24
Rams28Packers36
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Packers 21
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
