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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Las Vegas Raiders 36, Cowboys 33 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 6:01, 3rd and 18, on Derek Carr — 43.0 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:01 · 3rd and 18
Derek Carr
Raiders
(6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.
Dome
Cowboys closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 36–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:01, Raiders +43.0% win probability on one snap.
43.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dalton SchultzCowboysQ4 2:59(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysOT 8:50(8:50) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to LV 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 35 for 7 yards (20-T.Pollard). PENALTY on LV-21-A.Robertson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 32.
21.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 5 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
6 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Raiders212 of 222 plays carry both curves
(6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.
Swing −43.0 for CowboysExpected points −3.76 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 213
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 6:01DAL +43% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.
4th · 2:59DAL +24% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 8:50DAL +22% win prob(8:50) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to LV 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 35 for 7 yards (20-T.Pollard). PENALTY on LV-21-A.Robertson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 32.
1st · 11:55DAL +18% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 1-D.Jackson for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:13DAL +16% win prob2-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to DAL 0. 20-T.Pollard for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 6:46LV +15% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 43 for -7 yards (11-M.Parsons).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 29-yard field goal with 4:31 left in overtime put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd7:13Tony Pollard·100-yd return TD100-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick · two-point no good+624–19
3rd3:32Daniel Carlson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+327–19
4th12:03Greg Zuerlein·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+327–22
4th8:21Daniel Carlson·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+330–22
4th2:59Dalton Schultz·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+830–30
4th1:57Daniel Carlson·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+333–30
4th0:24Greg Zuerlein·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+333–33
Overtime4:31Daniel Carlson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+336–33
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryCowboys
Raiders3–2Cowboys
510Total yards439
6.7Yards per play6.3
36%Success rate44%
23%Third-down rate23%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays5
21First downs21
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 3–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cowboys, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Raiders: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.08Cowboys: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Raiders: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Raiders: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.10Cowboys: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 76 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 70 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 6, Cowboys 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Cowboys18.6%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 44.2 points below their season mean of 44.2% and 1.2 times their own 38.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Carr pass+43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.
OT 6:01 · Raiders · 3rd & 18 at LV 43 · gained nothing · +3.76 EP · +43.0% win probability
210 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 222 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 222 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 86 yards from the DAL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
222 of 222 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
222
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
39%
Yards
948
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0781%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0158%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3967%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2118%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3660%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
222 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
222 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter50 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Raiders6Cowboys0
Raiders7Cowboys0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 44
Raiders7Cowboys6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Raiders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 27
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 9
Raiders13Cowboys6
Raiders14Cowboys6
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 25
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Raiders17Cowboys6
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Cowboys 4
No good8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Raiders 40
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Cowboys 46
Raiders17Cowboys12
Raiders17Cowboys13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Raiders 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 35
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 41
Raiders23Cowboys13
Raiders24Cowboys13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Cowboys 3
Raiders24Cowboys19
Touchdown3 plays
Raiders27Cowboys19
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Cowboys 27
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Cowboys 42
4th quarter61 plays
Punt2 plays
Raiders27Cowboys22
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Raiders 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Raiders30Cowboys22
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Cowboys 11
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Raiders30Cowboys28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Raiders30Cowboys30
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Raiders 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Raiders33Cowboys30
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Cowboys 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Raiders33Cowboys33
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Raiders 27
The period ended3 plays
Overtime19 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 13
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Raiders36Cowboys33
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Cowboys 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
