2021 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 25, 2021 · AT&T Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -7 upsetO 51 ✓DomeCowboys closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 36–33 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:01, DAL +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 6:01LV — DAL LV ball · 3rd & 18DAL 55%

(6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 6:01DAL +43% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones. PENALTY on DAL-30-A.Brown, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play.
Q4 · 2:59DAL +24% win prob(2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 8:50DAL +22% win prob(8:50) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to LV 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 35 for 7 yards (20-T.Pollard). PENALTY on LV-21-A.Robertson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 32.
Q1 · 11:55DAL +18% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 1-D.Jackson for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Cowboys
Offensive plays	76	70
Total yards	510 (edge)	439
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	6.3
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	36%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21	21
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

32/47, 375 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.1 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

24/39, 373 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

22 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

10 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

8/9 for 134 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Michael GallupWR

5/8 for 106 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	7	2:00	Punt
2	LV	LV 29	4	71	1:15	Touchdown
3	DAL	DAL 25	11	70	4:07	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 25	5	2	1:28	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 7	4	2	0:53	Punt
6	LV	LV 40	9	24	3:44	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 16	6	11	1:50	Punt
8	LV	LV 22	13	69	5:57	Turnover on downs
9	DAL	DAL 25	8	20	2:17	Turnover on downs
10	LV	LV 49	4	16	2:37	Punt
11	DAL	DAL 14	9	86	3:27	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 25	4	15	0:25	End of half
13	LV	LV 25	5	5	2:08	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 17	7	19	2:51	Punt
15	LV	LV 25	7	60	2:48	Touchdown
16	DAL	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown
17	LV	LV 25	10	31	3:32	Turnover on downs
18	DAL	DAL 25	5	8	1:16	Punt
19	LV	LV 9	7	44	2:24	Punt
20	DAL	DAL 11	8	88	2:48	Turnover on downs
21	LV	LV 25	7	83	3:42	Turnover on downs
22	DAL	DAL 25	5	3	1:08	Punt
23	LV	LV 25	6	19	3:29	Punt
24	DAL	DAL 31	5	71	0:47	Touchdown
25	LV	LV 25	6	42	1:02	Turnover on downs
26	DAL	DAL 25	11	48	1:33	Turnover on downs
27	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:19	Turnover on downs
28	DAL	DAL 7	5	6	1:20	Punt
29	LV	LV 22	8	29	4:12	Turnover on downs

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 88 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	24/39	373	1	0	3	7.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	22	87	4.0	1	-3.8
Kenyan Drake	7	25	3.6	0	-2.1
Derek Carr	2	21	10.5	0	3.3
Zay Jones	1	4	4.0	0	0.2
Marcus Mariota	2	4	2.0	1	0.4
Hunter Renfrow	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Renfrow	8	9	134	0	24%	6.6
DeSean Jackson	3	4	102	1	11%	6.7
Zay Jones	5	7	59	0	18%	2.1
Darren Waller	2	5	33	0	13%	0.3
Josh Jacobs	2	4	25	0	11%	0.6
Bryan Edwards	1	1	12	0	3%	2.2
Kenyan Drake	2	2	5	0	5%	-0.8
Foster Moreau	1	5	3	0	13%	-4.5
Daniel Helm	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Johnathan Abram	6	3	0
Cory Littleton	4	4	0
Denzel Perryman	2	5	0
Casey Hayward	5	1	0
Nate Hobbs	5	0	0
Solomon Thomas	3	1	0
Brandon Facyson	3	1	0
Trevon Moehrig	1	3	0
K.J. Wright	1	3	0
Johnathan Hankins	2	1	1

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	32/47	375	2	0	1	8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tony Pollard	10	36	3.6	0	-0.3
Ezekiel Elliott	9	25	2.8	1	-0.8
Dak Prescott	1	3	3.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Gallup	5	8	106	0	17%	5.9
Cedrick Wilson	7	10	104	0	21%	2.3
Noah Brown	6	9	53	0	19%	-1.2
Dalton Schultz	3	7	46	1	15%	3.6
Tony Pollard	4	4	32	0	9%	0.7
Ezekiel Elliott	6	8	24	0	17%	-3.3
Sean McKeon	1	1	10	1	2%	1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Keanu Neal	6	6	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	6	5	0.0	2
Jourdan Lewis	5	2	1.0	0
Malik Hooker	3	2	0.0	0
Trysten Hill	4	1	0.0	0
Trevon Diggs	2	3	0.0	0
Micah Parsons	3	1	1.0	0
Chauncey Golston	1	3	0.0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	0.0	0
Anthony Brown	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -7
Closing total: 51
LV moneyline: +269
DAL moneyline: -314

Cowboys closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 69 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: LV 4 days · DAL 4 days
Coaches: Rich Bisaccia vs Mike McCarthy