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Minnesota Vikings 26 at San Francisco 49ers 34. Final.
49ers -3.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
San Francisco 49ers 34, Vikings 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:58 — 15.1 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:58
Unnamed on the sheet
Vikings
18-M.Wishnowsky kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to MIN 1. 26-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
San Francisco 49ers 34–26. Biggest swing: Q3 4:58, Vikings +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Azeez Al-Shaair49ersQ3 11:24(11:24) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 51-A.Al-Shaair at MIN 26. 51-A.Al-Shaair to MIN 2 for 24 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
12.2pts
Dalvin Cook49ersQ3 1:37(1:37) 33-D.Cook right guard to MIN 16 for -4 yards (90-K.Givens). FUMBLES (90-K.Givens), touched at MIN 12, RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at MIN 9. MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.
13.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.42 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Vikings at 6 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.14 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Vikings at 2 of 8 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Vikings158 of 166 plays carry both curves
Q3 · 4:58Vikings 26 — 49ers 31MIN ballSF 91%
Vikings 9%49ers 91%
18-M.Wishnowsky kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to MIN 1. 26-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.1 for 49ersExpected points −6.13 for 49ersThe model had Vikings 3 points higher than the market did.play 113
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:58SF +15% win prob18-M.Wishnowsky kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to MIN 1. 26-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:37MIN +13% win prob(1:37) 33-D.Cook right guard to MIN 16 for -4 yards (90-K.Givens). FUMBLES (90-K.Givens), touched at MIN 12, RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at MIN 9. MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.
3rd · 11:24MIN +12% win prob(11:24) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 51-A.Al-Shaair at MIN 26. 51-A.Al-Shaair to MIN 2 for 24 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
3rd · 13:41SF +11% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end pushed ob at MIN 8 for 49 yards (7-P.Peterson).
2nd · 0:22SF +11% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at Min 1. 1-YAC
2nd · 0:35SF +10% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk to MIN 6 for 24 yards (22-H.Smith, 23-X.Woods). Caught at Min 16. 10-YAC
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deebo Samuel's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 11:36 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd8:34Alexander Mattison·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+620–28
3rd5:03Robbie Gould·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+320–31
3rd4:58Kene Nwangwu·99-yd return TD99-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick · two-point no good+626–31
3rd0:13Robbie Gould·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+326–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by category49ers
Vikings1–849ers
323Total yards425
6.1Yards per play6.5
40%Success rate46%
25%Third-down rate42%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays11
17First downs21
1Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Vikings: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Vikings: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.42Vikings: −0.42 expected points added per play
+0.1349ers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 53 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against 49ers’s 65 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.8% in week 11 against 21.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
49ers8.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.4%, 7.3 points above their season mean of 14.2% and 1.5 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%55 snaps
74Olisaemeka UdohT · Every snap100%55 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%55 snaps
52Mason ColeC · Every snap100%55 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time96%53 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time93%51 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Full-time80%44 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Heavy rotation69%38 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Heavy rotation55%30 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
25Alexander MattisonRB · Rotational40%22 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Rotational36%20 snaps
69Rashod HillT · Rotational31%17 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Situational15%8 snaps
35Luke StockerTE · Situational11%6 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Situational9%5 snaps
64Blake BrandelT · Situational9%5 snaps
26Kene NwangwuRB · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Harrison HandCBCamryn BynumFSWyatt DavisGChazz SurrattOLBKellen MondQBIhmir Smith-MarsetteWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Garrett BradburyCSean MannionQB
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
66Tom ComptonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillG · Every snap100%70 snaps
50Alex MackC · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time93%65 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time90%63 snaps
25Elijah MitchellRB · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational37%26 snaps
81Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational29%20 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
22Jeffery WilsonRB · Situational14%10 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational7%5 snaps
17Travis BenjaminWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 4
Jordan WillisDEMaurice HurstDTJamycal HastyRBColton McKivitzT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Wishnowsky kicks+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
18-M.Wishnowsky kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to MIN 1. 26-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:58 · Vikings · Kickoff at SF 35 · gained nothing · +6.13 EP · +14.2% win probability
156 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 85 yards from the SF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
746
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR26+0.2035%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.1167%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.18100%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.6554%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2330%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1957%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 26
Intercepted7 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Vikings 46
Vikings649ers0
Vikings749ers0
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 2
Vikings749ers6
Vikings749ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 20
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 25
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Vikings1349ers7
Vikings1449ers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the 49ers 20
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 28
Vikings1449ers13
Vikings1449ers14
Touchdown20 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the Vikings 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the 49ers 46
3rd quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Vikings1449ers20
Vikings1449ers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings1449ers27
Vikings1449ers28
Touchdown2 plays
Vikings2049ers28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the 49ers 6
Vikings2049ers31
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 28
Vikings2649ers31
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 40
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Vikings2649ers34
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 4
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the 49ers 3
No good14 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the Vikings 24
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the 49ers 38
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3.5
Closing total
49
Vikings moneyline
+164
49ers moneyline
-183
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 49; the game landed 60 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Vikings 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Kyle Shanahan
1st · 10:30SF +9% win prob(10:30) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at SF 6 for 29 yards (26-J.Norman). Caught at SF 12. 6-YAC
1st · 7:42SF +9% win prob(7:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at MIN 41 for 37 yards (7-P.Peterson). Caught at SF 42. 17-YAC
