2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Levi's Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -3.5 ✓O 49 ✓49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

San Francisco 49ers 34–26. Biggest swing: Q3 4:58, SF +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:58MIN — SF MIN ballSF 91%

18-M.Wishnowsky kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to MIN 1. 26-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:58SF +15% win prob18-M.Wishnowsky kicks 64 yards from SF 35 to MIN 1. 26-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:37MIN +13% win prob(1:37) 33-D.Cook right guard to MIN 16 for -4 yards (90-K.Givens). FUMBLES (90-K.Givens), touched at MIN 12, RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at MIN 9. MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.
Q3 · 11:24MIN +12% win prob(11:24) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 51-A.Al-Shaair at MIN 26. 51-A.Al-Shaair to MIN 2 for 24 yards (72-E.Cleveland).
Q3 · 13:41SF +11% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right end pushed ob at MIN 8 for 49 yards (7-P.Peterson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	49ers
Offensive plays	53	65
Total yards	323	425 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	40%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.42	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	2/8	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

20/32, 238 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

17/26, 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.3 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

27 att, 133 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

6 att, 66 yds, 2 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

3/6 for 91 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

4/9 for 83 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 22	5	4	0:50	Punt
2	SF	SF 29	6	28	2:10	Interception
3	MIN	SF 49	9	49	3:33	Touchdown
4	SF	SF 25	8	75	2:56	Touchdown
5	MIN	MIN 17	5	8	2:16	Punt
6	SF	SF 31	5	4	2:43	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 20	7	80	2:50	Touchdown
8	SF	SF 25	5	7	1:32	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 17	6	11	2:32	Punt
10	SF	SF 15	16	87	8:20	Touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 40	3	14	0:18	End of half
12	SF	SF 25	8	85	3:29	Touchdown
13	MIN	MIN 21	2	0	0:18	Interception
14	SF	MIN 2	2	2	0:04	Touchdown
15	MIN	MIN 25	7	75	2:41	Touchdown
16	SF	SF 25	8	47	3:30	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	—	2	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown
18	SF	SF 25	6	18	3:09	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 20	1	-8	0:07	Fumble
20	SF	MIN 9	4	5	1:21	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	MIN 25	13	60	6:05	Turnover on downs
22	SF	SF 4	12	67	7:08	Turnover on downs
23	MIN	MIN 32	6	30	1:11	Turnover on downs
24	SF	SF 38	2	0	0:45	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	20/32	238	2	1	1	-1.4
Justin Jefferson	1/1	24	0	0	0	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	10	39	3.9	0	-6.9
Alexander Mattison	7	21	3.0	1	-0.7
Kene Nwangwu	1	7	7.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	4	9	83	0	28%	-1.9
Dalvin Cook	6	7	64	0	22%	2.0
Adam Thielen	5	7	62	2	22%	1.4
Tyler Conklin	2	3	25	0	9%	2.0
C.J. Ham	1	1	16	0	3%	1.0
Alexander Mattison	2	3	7	0	9%	-0.9
K.J. Osborn	1	2	5	0	6%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Harrison Smith	3	5	0.0	1	2
Anthony Barr	5	3	0.0	0	0
Nick Vigil	3	4	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	2	3	0.0	0	0
Xavier Woods	3	2	0.0	0	1
Patrick Peterson	5	0	0.0	0	0
Sheldon Richardson	1	4	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	2	2	1.0	0	0
James Lynch	2	2	0.0	0	0
Armon Watts	1	2	1.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	17/26	230	1	1	2	3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	27	133	4.9	1	2.5
Deebo Samuel	6	66	11.0	2	3.7
Jeffery Wilson	2	5	2.5	0	-1.9
Brandon Aiyuk	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Jimmy Garoppolo	3	0	0.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	3	6	91	0	23%	7.1
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	37	0	8%	1.5
Elijah Mitchell	5	6	35	0	23%	-0.2
Jauan Jennings	2	3	24	1	12%	3.1
George Kittle	1	2	13	0	8%	-0.1
Deebo Samuel	1	4	12	0	15%	-5.5
Charlie Woerner	1	1	11	0	4%	1.1
Trent Sherfield	1	1	5	0	4%	0.9
Jeffery Wilson	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	5	1	0.0	1	1
Jimmie Ward	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	4	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Jones	1	3	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	2	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Norman	3	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Bosa	2	0	1.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	1	1	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	0	0.0	0	1
Kevin Givens	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 49
MIN moneyline: +164
SF moneyline: -183

49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 49; the game landed 60 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: MIN 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Kyle Shanahan