2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · NRG Stadium

New York JetsWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -3 upsetU 44.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 21–14. Biggest swing: Q1 9:12, NYJ +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:12NYJ — HOU HOU ball · 2nd & 9HOU 66%

(9:12) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 91-J.Franklin-Myers [94-F.Fatukasi] at NYJ 31. 91-J.Franklin-Myers to HOU 37 for 32 yards (31-D.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:12NYJ +20% win prob(9:12) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 91-J.Franklin-Myers [94-F.Fatukasi] at NYJ 31. 91-J.Franklin-Myers to HOU 37 for 32 yards (31-D.Johnson).
Q1 · 2:14NYJ +15% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle intended for 25-T.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Thomas at NYJ 24. 37-T.Thomas to NYJ 24 for no gain (25-T.Johnson).
Q4 · 13:31NYJ +13% win prob(13:31) 6-M.Ammendola 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q2 · 10:36HOU +13% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 13-B.Cooks for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-37-B.Hall, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Texans
Offensive plays	62	55
Total yards	269 (edge)	202
Yards per play	4.3 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	42% (edge)	27%
Dropback rate	45%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	2/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	1

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Tyrod TaylorQB

17/26, 158 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-12.9 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

14/24, 145 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.4 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Tevin ColemanRB

16 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Ty JohnsonRB

6 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Braxton BerriosWR

2/3 for 47 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Elijah MooreWR

4/8 for 46 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 21	13	62	5:58	Interception
2	NYJ	HOU 37	7	24	3:28	Turnover on downs
3	HOU	HOU 25	5	-6	2:04	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	3	-7	1:25	Interception
5	HOU	NYJ 24	6	9	2:47	Touchdown
6	NYJ	NYJ 26	5	-2	1:02	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 33	7	72	2:47	Touchdown
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	7	1:36	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 31	4	3	2:21	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 30	11	57	5:19	Touchdown
11	HOU	HOU 25	8	17	1:09	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 26	1	0	0:04	End of half
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	73	7:09	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 25	9	19	4:38	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 11	8	71	4:46	Turnover on downs
16	HOU	HOU 32	4	7	1:15	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 11	4	-3	0:48	Punt
18	HOU	NYJ 37	4	0	1:30	Turnover on downs
19	NYJ	NYJ 45	13	46	6:20	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 31	5	8	1:29	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	HOU 38	4	3	1:45	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 20	3	11	0:20	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 73 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	14/24	145	0	1	4	-9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	16	67	4.2	0	0.8
Ty Johnson	6	42	7.0	0	0.2
Austin Walter	9	38	4.2	1	1.7
Elijah Moore	1	7	7.0	0	1.7
Zach Wilson	2	3	1.5	1	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Braxton Berrios	2	3	47	13%	2.5
Elijah Moore	4	8	46	35%	-0.9
Keelan Cole	2	2	24	9%	4.5
Ryan Griffin	3	4	20	17%	-0.4
Jamison Crowder	1	1	5	4%	-0.1
Tevin Coleman	2	3	3	13%	-1.9
Ty Johnson	0	1	0	4%	-3.5
Austin Walter	0	1	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	3	5	0.0	1
Quincy Williams	4	3	1.0	0
Michael Carter	4	2	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	1	2	0.0	0
Ronald Blair	1	2	1.0	0
Quinnen Williams	1	2	1.0	0
Elijah Riley	1	2	0.0	0
Bryce Hall	3	0	0.0	1
Ashtyn Davis	3	0	0.0	0
Jarrad Davis	3	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	17/26	158	2	1	5	-12.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	10	39	3.9	-0.7
Tyrod Taylor	2	30	15.0	0.9
Rex Burkhead	12	27	2.3	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	3	5	45	1	19%	5.3
Nico Collins	2	5	28	0	19%	-1.8
Rex Burkhead	3	3	27	0	12%	1.8
Danny Amendola	3	5	23	0	19%	-2.4
Brevin Jordan	3	3	23	1	12%	3.2
David Johnson	2	3	16	0	12%	-8.2
Pharaoh Brown	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Chris Moore	1	1	-4	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Cunningham	6	2	0.0	0	0
Eric Murray	5	3	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	5	1	1.0	0	0
Desmond King	3	2	0.0	0	0
Terrence Brooks	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jaleel Johnson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	3	1	0.0	1	1
Neville Hewitt	4	0	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	2	1	0.0	0	2
Maliek Collins	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3
Closing total: 44.5
NYJ moneyline: +125
HOU moneyline: -138

Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NYJ 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs David Culley