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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 12
It turned at Q1 9:12, 2nd and 9, on John Franklin-Myers — 20.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:12 · 2nd and 9
John Franklin-Myers
Jets
(9:12) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 91-J.Franklin-Myers [94-F.Fatukasi] at NYJ 31. 91-J.Franklin-Myers to HOU 37 for 32 yards (31-D.Johnson).
New York Jets 21–14. Biggest swing: Q1 9:12, Jets +20.3% win probability on one snap.
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 13 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.19 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(9:12) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 91-J.Franklin-Myers [94-F.Fatukasi] at NYJ 31. 91-J.Franklin-Myers to HOU 37 for 32 yards (31-D.Johnson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Zach Wilson's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 7:57 left in the 3rd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryTexans
Jets ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 62 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Texans’s 55 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Texans 3.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 39.1%, is past their previous low of 51.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.7% in week 11 against 25.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.2 pts in week 11 against −10.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-10.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.5 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 61 snaps
Texans-13.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.5 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 91%
Tendencies room →Jets39.1%leaned — ran early · −20.0 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 46 early downs
Texans46.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 53.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Jets50.0%inside their normal wobble · +16.2 vs their 33.8%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Texans50.0%leaned — went for it · +17.6 vs their 32.4%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 28%
Tendencies room →Jets25.0%leaned — got home · +11.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.99× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Texans17.9%leaned — got home · +6.0 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 11.7 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 2.0 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
17/26, 158 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-12.9 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
14/24, 145 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-9.4 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Brevin Jordan banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod TaylorQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | +6.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/26, 158 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 30 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 13.5 | +5.3 | 82% | 94% | 19% | 43% | 3/5, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Brevin JordanTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.3 | +6.8 | 60% | 59% | 12% | 3% | 3/3, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 10.1 | −2.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/24, 145 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Austin WalterRB | 9.8 | +0.9 | 24% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 38 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −4.6 | 88% | 96% | 35% | 49% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/8, 46 yd |
| Tevin ColemanRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −2.6 | 45% | 32% | 13% | 0% | 16 car, 67 yd · 2/3, 3 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB · Committee Back | 8.4 | −1.3 | 61% | 66% | 12% | 3% | 12 car, 27 yd · 3/3, 27 yd |
| David JohnsonRB · Committee Back | 7.5 | −1.8 | 39% | 31% | 12% | 0% | 10 car, 39 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +2.5 | 19% | 36% | 13% | 6% | 2/3, 47 yd |
| Danny AmendolaWR · Featured Receiver | 5.3 | −1.2 | 39% | 56% | 19% | 20% | 3/5, 23 yd |
| Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −1.8 | 84% | 82% | 17% | 23% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Nico CollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −4.0 | 65% | 78% | 19% | 36% | 2/5, 28 yd |
| Keelan ColeWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +0.9 | 96% | 93% | 9% | 19% | 2/2, 24 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 4.2 | −1.1 | 34% | 43% | 4% | 6% | 6 car, 42 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh JohnsonQB | 2.0 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.1 | 49% | 75% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −0.8 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -4 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 60% | 38% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Trevon WescoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:12) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 91-J.Franklin-Myers [94-F.Fatukasi] at NYJ 31. 91-J.Franklin-Myers to HOU 37 for 32 yards (31-D.Johnson).
Q1 9:12 · Texans · 2nd & 9 at NYJ 17 · gained nothing · -8.23 EP · −24.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 75 yards from the NYJ 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets3
Texans0Jets3Texans6Jets3Texans7Jets3Texans13Jets3Texans14Jets9Texans14Jets11Texans14Jets17Texans14Jets18Texans14Jets21Texans14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 14/24 | 145 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Austin Walter | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 13% | +2.5 |
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 35% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/26 | 158 | 2 | 1 | 5 | −12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_12_NYJ_HOU
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 35 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 9% | +4.5 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 17% | −0.4 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −3.5 |
| Austin Walter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ronald Blair | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Riley | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hall | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrad Davis | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
| 39 |
| 3.9 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Rex Burkhead | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 45 | 1 | 19% | +5.3 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 19% | −1.8 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 12% | +1.8 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 19% | −2.4 |
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 12% | +3.2 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | −8.2 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Cunningham | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Desmond King | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Brooks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Neville Hewitt | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Mitchell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Maliek Collins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
