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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 12
It turned at Q4 1:41, 1st and 10, on Boston Scott — 21.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Giants 13–7. Biggest swing: Q4 1:41, Giants +21.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:41 · 1st and 10
Boston Scott
Giants
(1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right guard to NYG 45 for 4 yards (97-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 37.
21.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right guard to NYG 45 for 4 yards (97-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 37.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Graham Gano's 35-yard field goal with 6:48 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Graham Gano35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+30–34 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryGiants
Eagles ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Giants’s 57 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Giants 2.
Eagles outgained Giants 332-265 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-17.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.7 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 64 snaps
Giants4.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their -1.9 pts, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 95%
Tendencies room →Eagles43.1%right on their number · −6.8 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 51 early downs
Giants50.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±14.0 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.9%.
Giants33.3%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 29.0%, and they swing ±26.1 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 31%
Tendencies room →Eagles15.2%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants6.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
PHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.8 pts, 11.7 points below their season mean of -6.2 pts and 1.1 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
19/30, 202 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.6 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
14/31, 129 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-17.6 expected points added · -14.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chris Myarick banked 2.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 15.1 | −3.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 202 yd, 1 TD · 9 car, 30 yd |
| Boston ScottRB · Committee Back | 13.2 | −6.0 | 51% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 15 car, 64 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 8 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 9.3 | −4.5 | 87% | 79% | 17% | 0% | 13 car, 40 yd · 4/5, 13 yd |
| Chris MyarickTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +2.8 | 40% | 30% | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenny GolladayWR · Featured Receiver | 8.0 | −6.7 | 77% | 79% | 24% | 48% | 3/7, 50 yd |
| Miles SandersRB | 7.4 | +1.9 | 33% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 64 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 6.9 | −15.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/31, 129 yd, 3 INT · 8 car, 77 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −1.4 | 90% | 88% | 21% | 5% | 3/6, 37 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 6.2 | +0.7 | 16% | 32% | 14% | 2% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −1.5 | 73% | 73% | 14% | 19% | 1 car, -13 yd · 3/4, 40 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −8.1 | 67% | 79% | 24% | 52% | 2/7, 31 yd |
| John RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +2.3 | 18% | 18% | 7% | 9% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −4.6 | 82% | 71% | 17% | 23% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/5, 23 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.6 | 91% | 91% | 14% | 14% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Devontae BookerRB | 3.7 | +0.9 | 17% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 17 yd |
| J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.9 | 22% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Pharoh CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.5 | 58% | 58% | 7% | 8% | 1 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −2.8 | 96% | 94% | 10% | 4% | 1/3, 0 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Greg WardWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 35-B.Scott INTERCEPTED by 48-T.Crowder at NYG 0. 48-T.Crowder to NYG 9 for 9 yards (6-D.Smith). FUMBLES (6-D.Smith), ball out of bounds at PHI 13.
Q2 0:08 · Eagles · 3rd & goal at NYG 1 · gained nothing · -4.24 EP · −18.1% win probability
147 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 92 yards from the PHI 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Giants3Eagles0Giants9Eagles0Giants10Eagles6Giants10Eagles7Giants10Eagles7Giants13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/31 | 129 | 0 | 3 | 1 | −17.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 0 | +4.7 |
| Boston Scott | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 1 | −1.9 |
| Miles Sanders |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 14% | +0.2 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Edwards | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avonte Maddox |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/30 | 202 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_12_PHI_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 20 — under by 25.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 9 |
| 64 |
| 7.1 |
| 0 |
| +2.6 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| 24% |
| −5.2 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 17% | −3.4 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 14% | +1.0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | −4.7 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Greg Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.1 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Steven Nelson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Barnett | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Genard Avery | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Daniel Jones | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 24% | +0.5 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 14% | +1.4 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 21% | −0.6 |
| John Ross | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 7% | +3.0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 17% | −1.6 |
| Chris Myarick | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 7% | +1.5 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier McKinney | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Julian Love | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| J.R. Reed | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Ragland | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Robinson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tae Crowder | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Benardrick McKinney | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
