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Philadelphia Eagles 7 at New York Giants 13. Final.
Eagles -4 upsetU 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
New York Giants 13, Eagles 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:41, 1st and 10, on Boston Scott — 21.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:41 · 1st and 10
Boston Scott
Giants
(1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right guard to NYG 45 for 4 yards (97-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 37.
Eagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 13–7. Biggest swing: Q4 1:41, Giants +21.4% win probability on one snap.
21.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darnay HolmesGiantsQ1 1:15(1:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle intended for 16-Q.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Holmes at NYG 5. 30-D.Holmes to NYG 20 for 15 yards (16-Q.Watkins; 68-J.Mailata).
13.6pts
Jalen HurtsGiantsQ4 0:25(:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 18-J.Reagor.
15.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Giants won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Eagles149 of 161 plays carry both curves
(1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right guard to NYG 45 for 4 yards (97-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 37.
Swing +21.4 for GiantsExpected points +3.88 for GiantsThe model had Giants 7 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:41PHI +21% win prob(1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right guard to NYG 45 for 4 yards (97-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (97-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 37.
4th · 0:25PHI +15% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 18-J.Reagor.
1st · 1:15PHI +14% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle intended for 16-Q.Watkins INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Holmes at NYG 5. 30-D.Holmes to NYG 20 for 15 yards (16-Q.Watkins; 68-J.Mailata).
2nd · 0:08PHI +13% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 35-B.Scott INTERCEPTED by 48-T.Crowder at NYG 0. 48-T.Crowder to NYG 9 for 9 yards (6-D.Smith). FUMBLES (6-D.Smith), ball out of bounds at PHI 13.
4th · 1:19PHI +12% win prob(1:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PHI 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 41 for 9 yards (37-G.Brightwell).
3rd · 12:51PHI +11% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Reagor (33-A.Robinson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Graham Gano's 35-yard field goal with 6:48 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:48Graham Gano·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+30–3
3rd6:55Chris Myarick·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+70–10
4th2:59Graham Gano·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+37–13
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryGiants
Eagles6–1Giants
332Total yards265
5.2Yards per play4.6
45%Success rate42%
36%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays3
19First downs16
1Sacks taken1
4Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Eagles: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Eagles: −0.53 expected points added per play
+0.11Giants: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Eagles: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.29Giants: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Giants’s 57 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Giants 2.
NoteEagles outgained Giants 332-265 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Giants6.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.8 pts, 11.7 points below their season mean of -6.2 pts and 1.1 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 35-B.Scott INTERCEPTED by 48-T.Crowder at NYG 0. 48-T.Crowder to NYG 9 for 9 yards (6-D.Smith). FUMBLES (6-D.Smith), ball out of bounds at PHI 13.
Q2 0:08 · Eagles · 3rd & goal at NYG 1 · gained nothing · -4.24 EP · −18.1% win probability
147 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 92 yards from the PHI 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
40%
Yards
596
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.3157%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0056%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1721%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1058%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.1820%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 27
Punt4 plays
Eagles0Giants3
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Eagles 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Giants 20
The period ended3 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 38
2nd quarter41 plays
No good7 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Eagles 33
Punt4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Eagles 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Intercepted20 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Giants 1
3rd quarter35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 40
Eagles0Giants9
Eagles0Giants10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Eagles 1
Intercepted3 plays
Punt4 plays
The period ended10 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Giants 2
4th quarter50 plays
Eagles6Giants10
Eagles7Giants10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Giants 46
Eagles7Giants13
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Eagles 16
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Giants 49
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.8 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Giants 27
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
