2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -3.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Cincinnati Bengals 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:10, PIT +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:10PIT — CIN PIT ball · 2nd & 7CIN 74%

(8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Apple at CIN 45. 20-E.Apple to PIT 5 for 50 yards (22-N.Harris).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:10PIT +11% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Apple at CIN 45. 20-E.Apple to PIT 5 for 50 yards (22-N.Harris).
Q2 · 14:20CIN +8% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:38CIN +6% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:29CIN +5% win prob(14:29) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to PIT 45 for 25 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bengals
Offensive plays	59	65
Total yards	301	370 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.31	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	34%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	75%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.25 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

24/41, 263 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-14.6 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

20/24, 190 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.3 expected points added · +20.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

28 att, 165 yds, 2 TD

10.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Chris EvansRB

5 att, 23 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/8 for 114 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

9/14 for 95 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	12	71	5:31	Touchdown
2	PIT	PIT 23	4	14	1:33	Interception
3	CIN	PIT 5	4	-8	1:55	Turnover on downs
4	PIT	PIT 25	9	53	3:44	Turnover on downs
5	CIN	CIN 25	8	75	3:02	Touchdown
6	PIT	PIT 25	9	28	3:57	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 16	15	78	7:35	Touchdown
8	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	0:55	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 29	6	45	1:11	Interception
10	PIT	PIT 21	1	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown
11	PIT	PIT 30	3	-9	0:30	End of half
12	PIT	PIT 25	8	17	2:49	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 33	6	8	3:44	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 18	5	27	2:04	Fumble
15	CIN	PIT 45	8	12	3:48	Turnover on downs
16	PIT	PIT 25	5	2	1:28	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 35	6	65	2:57	Touchdown
18	PIT	PIT 23	8	43	2:34	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 7	7	23	4:25	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 31	10	69	3:12	Touchdown
21	CIN	CIN 10	5	1	1:12	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 36	7	48	1:47	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 78 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	24/41	263	1	2	3	-14.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	8	23	2.9	-2.1
Kalen Ballage	3	21	7.0	0.2
Benny Snell	2	5	2.5	-0.7
Anthony McFarland	2	2	1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	9	14	95	0	36%	7.6
Chase Claypool	3	8	82	0	21%	-4.6
Pat Freiermuth	4	4	40	1	10%	3.8
Najee Harris	3	5	14	0	13%	-1.4
Anthony McFarland	1	1	11	0	3%	-1.9
Zach Gentry	1	2	10	0	5%	0.0
Kalen Ballage	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.5
James Washington	1	2	3	0	5%	-7.9
Anthony Miller	1	1	2	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	4	0.0	1	1
Joe Schobert	6	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	5	1.0	0	0
Arthur Maulet	3	3	0.0	0	0
Devin Bush	2	3	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	3	2	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	1	0.0	0	0
James Pierre	3	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Wormley	2	2	1.0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	3	1	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	20/24	190	1	1	2	2.3
Brandon Allen	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	28	165	5.9	2	10.3
Chris Evans	5	23	4.6	0	0.8
Joe Burrow	1	8	8.0	1	1.9
Samaje Perine	3	3	1.0	0	-1.2
Brandon Allen	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	6	8	114	1	33%	6.8
Ja'Marr Chase	3	3	39	0	13%	3.1
Tyler Boyd	2	2	13	0	8%	0.5
Samaje Perine	1	1	12	0	4%	1.2
C.J. Uzomah	3	3	9	0	13%	0.4
Chris Evans	1	1	5	0	4%	0.5
Stanley Morgan	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7
Mike Thomas	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.1
Joe Mixon	4	4	-2	0	17%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Markus Bailey	3	2	0.0	0	0
Tre Flowers	2	2	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	3	1	1.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	1	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Thomas	2	1	0.0	0	1
D.J. Reader	2	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	1	2	0.0	1	1
Vonn Bell	3	0	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3.5
Closing total: 43.5
PIT moneyline: +154
CIN moneyline: -172

Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 51 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: PIT 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.