For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
SteelersPittsburgh10
BY 31final margin
BengalsCincinnati41
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at Cincinnati Bengals 41. Final.
Bengals -3.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals 41, Steelers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:10, 2nd and 7, on Eli Apple — 11.5 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:10 · 2nd and 7
Eli Apple
Bengals
(8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Apple at CIN 45. 20-E.Apple to PIT 5 for 50 yards (22-N.Harris).
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Cincinnati Bengals 41–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:10, Bengals +11.5% win probability on one snap.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe BurrowBengalsQ1 9:38(9:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.2pts
Tee HigginsBengalsQ2 14:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bengals won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Steelers160 of 167 plays carry both curves
(8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Apple at CIN 45. 20-E.Apple to PIT 5 for 50 yards (22-N.Harris).
Swing +11.5 for BengalsExpected points +7.12 for BengalsThe model had Steelers 6 points higher than the market did.play 18
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:10PIT +11% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Apple at CIN 45. 20-E.Apple to PIT 5 for 50 yards (22-N.Harris).
2nd · 14:20CIN +8% win prob(14:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:38CIN +6% win prob(9:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:29CIN +5% win prob(14:29) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to PIT 45 for 25 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
1st · 3:13CIN +5% win prob(3:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson to CIN 22 for 11 yards (24-V.Bell).
1st · 6:01CIN +4% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 11-C.Claypool to CIN 34 for 41 yards (20-E.Apple).
1st · 6:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Burrow's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 9:38 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:38Joe Burrow·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st6:04Evan McPherson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+30–10
1st2:21Chris Boswell·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–10
2nd14:20Tee Higgins·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+73–17
4th3:05Pat Freiermuth·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+710–41
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers1–8Bengals
301Total yards370
5.1Yards per play5.7
34%Success rate55%
54%Third-down rate45%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays4
16First downs24
3Sacks taken2
3Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Steelers: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.19Bengals: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Steelers: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.11Bengals: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Steelers: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.25Bengals: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Bengals’s 65 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 1, Bengals 5.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Bengals13.6%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.6%, 14.7 points below their season mean of 54.3% and 1.3 times their own 11.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
65Dan MooreT · Every snap100%62 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%62 snaps
67B.J. FinneyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
53Kendrick GreenC · Every snap100%62 snaps
51Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%62 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Full-time98%61 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time98%61 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation58%36 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Rotational44%27 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Rotational40%25 snaps
81Zach GentryTE · Rotational35%22 snaps
26Anthony McFarlandRB · Situational19%12 snaps
29Kalen BallageRB · Situational13%8 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational11%7 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational3%2 snaps
72Zach BannerT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Joe HadenCBIsaiah BuggsDEBuddy JohnsonILBDwayne HaskinsQBKevin RaderTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Mason RudolphQBJohn LeglueTJoe HaegT
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiG · Every snap100%68 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Full-time85%58 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Full-time85%58 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation72%49 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation66%45 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation63%43 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Rotational46%31 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Rotational32%22 snaps
63Trey HillC · Situational22%15 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational19%13 snaps
79Jackson CarmanG · Situational18%12 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational15%10 snaps
8Brandon AllenQB · Situational15%10 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational13%9 snaps
Inactive · 6
Vernon HargreavesCBTyler ShelvinNTFred JohnsonTMitchell WilcoxTEAuden TateWRTrenton IrwinWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right intended for 11-C.Claypool INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Apple at CIN 45. 20-E.Apple to PIT 5 for 50 yards (22-N.Harris).
Q1 8:10 · Steelers · 2nd & 7 at PIT 37 · gained nothing · -7.12 EP · −15.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 84 yards from the CIN 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
42%
Yards
671
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0447%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.3380%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.9238%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2063%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.500%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Steelers0Bengals6
Steelers0Bengals7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 37
Steelers0Bengals10
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Steelers 1
Steelers3Bengals10
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 48
2nd quarter46 plays
Steelers3Bengals16
Steelers3Bengals17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Steelers 32
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 47
Steelers3Bengals23
Steelers3Bengals24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Steelers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Steelers 26
Steelers3Bengals30
Touchdown1 play
Steelers3Bengals31
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 46
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 46
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 45
Steelers3Bengals34
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Steelers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Steelers 33
4th quarter47 plays
Steelers3Bengals40
Steelers3Bengals41
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Steelers 1
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Bengals 43
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 7 to the Bengals 27
Steelers9Bengals41
Steelers10Bengals41
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Bengals 15
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 11
The period ended10 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Bengals 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -3.5
Closing total
43.5
Steelers moneyline
+154
Bengals moneyline
-172
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 51 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Zac Taylor
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
PIT +4% win prob
(6:48) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 13 for -12 yards (95-C.Wormley).
2nd · 0:37PIT +4% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 13-J.Washington INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hilton at PIT 24. 21-M.Hilton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
