2021 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 29, 2021 · FedExField

Seattle Seahawks

Washington CommandersWinner

SEA -1 upsetU 47 ✓Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 17–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, SEA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:15SEA — WAS SEA ballWAS 79%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 18-F.Swain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:15SEA +15% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 18-F.Swain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q1 · 1:45WAS +14% win prob(1:45) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at WAS 11 for 55 yards (29-K.Fuller) [94-D.Payne].
Q4 · 0:22WAS +13% win prob(:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-F.Swain for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:56SEA +11% win prob3-J.Slye extra point is Blocked (94-R.Green), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 94-R.Green recovered the blocked kick. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Commanders
Offensive plays	46	78
Total yards	267	375 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	33%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	11	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

20/31, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

27/35, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.3 expected points added · +7.3% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

29 att, 111 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

J.D. McKissicRB

7 att, 30 yds, 1 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

3/5 for 96 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

4/7 for 51 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 22	5	6	1:01	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 24	4	1	1:35	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 27	15	68	9:25	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 25	8	75	2:39	Touchdown
5	WAS	WAS 31	7	6	1:58	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 14	5	22	2:39	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 9	10	45	6:03	Interception
8	SEA	SEA 11	2	52	0:48	Fumble
9	WAS	WAS 27	10	54	2:56	Touchdown
10	SEA	SEA 28	5	9	0:40	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 9	1	0	0:16	End of half
12	SEA	SEA 20	5	5	1:34	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 27	12	75	4:56	Touchdown
14	SEA	SEA 30	5	7	1:36	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 25	4	14	1:56	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 13	4	6	0:48	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 27	4	9	2:07	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 17	4	-3	2:13	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 44	4	9	2:10	Punt
20	SEA	SEA 23	6	16	1:44	Punt
21	WAS	WAS 13	16	89	8:37	Turnover on downs
22	SEA	SEA 4	11	77	2:04	Touchdown
23	WAS	SEA 39	2	0	0:15	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 89 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	20/31	247	2	0	2	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Russell Wilson	2	16	8.0	0.5
Alex Collins	7	14	2.0	-2.4
DeeJay Dallas	3	4	1.3	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	3	5	96	0	16%	4.2
Gerald Everett	5	9	37	1	29%	-0.2
Freddie Swain	1	2	32	1	6%	3.1
DeeJay Dallas	5	5	27	0	16%	-0.3
Will Dissly	2	2	19	0	6%	1.1
Alex Collins	1	1	13	0	3%	-3.2
DK Metcalf	1	4	13	0	13%	-0.8
D'Wayne Eskridge	2	3	10	0	10%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	9	4	0	0
Bobby Wagner	7	4	0	1
Jamal Adams	6	3	1	2
Al Woods	5	3	0	0
D.J. Reed	5	1	0	0
Kerry Hyder	4	2	0	0
Quandre Diggs	4	2	0	0
Bryan Mone	3	0	0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	1	2	0	0
Rasheem Green	1	1	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	27/35	223	1	1	1	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	29	111	3.8	0	-2.7
J.D. McKissic	7	30	4.3	1	1.7
DeAndre Carter	1	4	4.0	0	0.0
Curtis Samuel	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3
Taylor Heinicke	4	3	0.8	0	-2.7
Jaret Patterson	1	0	0.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	4	7	51	0	21%	0.1
DeAndre Carter	4	5	42	0	15%	5.9
Antonio Gibson	7	7	35	0	21%	0.7
Logan Thomas	3	6	31	0	18%	-4.4
J.D. McKissic	5	5	26	1	15%	1.8
John Bates	1	1	15	0	3%	1.2
Adam Humphries	2	2	14	0	6%	1.6
Curtis Samuel	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Landon Collins	4	2	0.0
Kamren Curl	4	0	1.0
Cole Holcomb	1	2	0.0
James Smith-Williams	2	1	0.0
Jamin Davis	2	1	0.0
Matt Ioannidis	1	2	0.0
Shaka Toney	2	0	1.0
William Jackson	2	0	0.0
John Bates	1	0	0.0
Cam Sims	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -1
Closing total: 47
SEA moneyline: -128
WAS moneyline: +116

Seahawks closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 32 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: SEA 8 days · WAS 8 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Ron Rivera