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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:14 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Seahawks160 of 173 plays carry both curves
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 18-F.Swain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing +14.7 for CommandersExpected points +0.95 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15SEA +15% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 18-F.Swain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
1st · 1:45WAS +14% win prob(1:45) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at WAS 11 for 55 yards (29-K.Fuller) [94-D.Payne].
4th · 0:22WAS +13% win prob(:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-F.Swain for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:56SEA +11% win prob3-J.Slye extra point is Blocked (94-R.Green), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 94-R.Green recovered the blocked kick. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
3rd · 8:35WAS +11% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 41-J.McKissic right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:16WAS +10% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 1-D.Carter to SEA 27 for 16 yards (56-J.Brooks; 6-Q.Diggs). PENALTY on SEA-94-R.Green, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at SEA 27.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.D. McKissic's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 8:35 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st3:02Joey Slye·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+30–3
1st0:25Gerald Everett·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–3
2nd1:03J.D. McKissic·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke+67–9
3rd8:35J.D. McKissic·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+89–17
4th0:22Freddie Swain·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point no good+615–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCommanders
Seahawks1–6Commanders
267Total yards375
5.8Yards per play4.8
33%Success rate54%
33%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays4
11First downs24
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Seahawks: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.03Commanders: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Seahawks: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.13Commanders: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Seahawks: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 46 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Commanders’s 78 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 2, Commanders 4.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 5.3%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, is past their previous high of 26.5% in week 5 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 11.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
WAS's pass rate over expected turned over: −17.8 pts in week 11 against −2.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
77 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.1 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Commanders28.6%
leaned — got home · +13.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.85× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 13.1 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 1.8 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 18-F.Swain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:15 · Seahawks · — at WAS 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −14.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 96 yards from the SEA 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1350%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0378%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29-0.1345%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0043%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5050%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 28
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Seahawks 26
Seahawks0Commanders3
Field goal16 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Seahawks 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Seahawks6Commanders3
Seahawks7Commanders3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Commanders 6
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 49
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 36
Intercepted11 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Seahawks 41
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to midfield
Seahawks7Commanders9
Seahawks9Commanders9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Seahawks 10
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 37
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 25
Seahawks9Commanders15
Seahawks9Commanders17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Seahawks 10
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 37
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 19
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 36
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 19
4th quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Seahawks 47
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 39
Turnover on downs21 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Seahawks 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Seahawks15Commanders17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 4 to the Commanders 32
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
