2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Indianapolis Colts

TB -3 ✓O 53 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–31. Biggest swing: Q2 11:52, IND +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:52TB — IND IND ball · 1st & 10TB 68%

(11:52) 2-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:52IND +21% win prob(11:52) 2-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:44TB +17% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal to IND 46 for 9 yards (32-M.Edwards). FUMBLES (32-M.Edwards), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at IND 46. 54-L.David to IND 34 for 12 yards (56-Q.Nelson, 81-M.Alie-Cox).
Q4 · 2:41IND +14% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette left tackle to TB 42 for 11 yards (42-A.Sendejo, 30-G.Odum).
Q4 · 12:36IND +13% win prob(12:36) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to IND 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-10-S.Miller at IND 19.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Colts
Offensive plays	62	67
Total yards	360	392 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	63% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	58%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	0.15
Third downs	2/8	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Colts outgained Buccaneers 392–360 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

27/44, 306 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

1.0 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

25/34, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

17 att, 100 yds, 3 TD

7.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Rob GronkowskiTE

7/9 for 123 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Jack DoyleTE

6/7 for 81 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 22	5	4	0:55	Punt
2	IND	TB 30	4	4	1:34	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 25	8	36	2:14	Fumble
4	IND	IND 34	4	4	1:24	Punt
5	TB	TB 16	4	6	2:13	Punt
6	IND	IND 33	4	2	1:33	Punt
7	TB	TB 17	4	4	1:43	Punt
8	IND	IND 37	2	9	0:50	Fumble
9	TB	IND 34	8	34	4:12	Touchdown
10	IND	IND 25	5	75	1:38	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 30	3	11	0:54	Interception
12	IND	IND 10	10	66	5:43	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 16	10	84	3:11	Touchdown
14	IND	IND 25	16	75	1:38	Touchdown
15	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:18	End of half
16	IND	IND 25	9	43	4:02	Fumble
17	TB	TB 35	7	28	2:52	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 25	8	29	2:44	Interception
19	TB	TB 35	8	56	4:16	Touchdown
20	IND	IND 25	5	10	1:58	Punt
21	TB	TB 38	4	4	1:40	Punt
22	TB	IND 19	6	13	2:22	Turnover on downs
23	IND	IND 25	12	75	6:37	Touchdown
24	TB	TB 25	10	80	3:09	Touchdown
25	IND	TB 32	3	0	0:20	Interception

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	25/34	226	1	1	2	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	17	100	5.9	3	7.4
Ronald Jones	7	37	5.3	1	1.9
Chris Godwin	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Tom Brady	2	2	1.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	7	9	123	0	26%	8.8
Leonard Fournette	7	8	31	1	24%	-1.4
Chris Godwin	4	5	24	0	15%	-2.4
Cameron Brate	3	4	23	0	12%	0.3
Mike Evans	3	6	16	0	18%	-3.2
Tyler Johnson	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Scott Miller	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquil Barrett	4	3	2.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	2	0.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	3	0.0	0	2
Antoine Winfield	3	2	0.0	1	1
Lavonte David	3	2	0.0	0	1
Pierre Desir	3	1	0.0	1	1
Devin White	3	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	2	1	0.0	0	2
Kevin Minter	3	0	0.0	0	0
Vita Vea	1	1	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	27/44	306	3	2	3	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	16	83	5.2	1	1.5
Carson Wentz	3	21	7.0	0	2.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jack Doyle	6	7	81	1	16%	8.9
Ashton Dulin	1	1	62	1	2%	4.8
Michael Pittman	4	10	53	0	23%	-6.4
T.Y. Hilton	4	5	28	1	12%	5.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	4	26	0	9%	1.4
Kylen Granson	2	2	22	0	5%	1.6
Jonathan Taylor	4	5	14	0	12%	-1.1
Zach Pascal	2	7	12	0	16%	-9.9
Mo Alie-Cox	1	2	8	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	9	3	0.0	0	1
George Odum	4	4	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	3	3	0.0	0	0
Andrew Sendejo	2	3	0.0	0	0
Xavier Rhodes	3	1	0.0	0	1
Rock Ya-Sin	3	0	0.0	0	1
Michael Pittman	1	1	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	2	0	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	2	0	0.0	1	1
Kwity Paye	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3
Closing total: 53
TB moneyline: -149
IND moneyline: +135

Buccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 53; the game landed 69 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: TB 6 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Frank Reich