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2021 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 28, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay38
BY 7final margin
ColtsIndianapolis31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 at Indianapolis Colts 31. Final.
Buccaneers -3 ✓O 53 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Colts 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:52, 1st and 10, on Ashton Dulin — 21.0 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:52 · 1st and 10
Ashton Dulin
Colts
(11:52) 2-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Buccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–31. Biggest swing: Q2 11:52, Colts +21.0% win probability on one snap.
21.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zach PascalBuccaneersQ1 2:44(2:44) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal to IND 46 for 9 yards (32-M.Edwards). FUMBLES (32-M.Edwards), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at IND 46. 54-L.David to IND 34 for 12 yards (56-Q.Nelson, 81-M.Alie-Cox).
17.2pts
Leonard FournetteBuccaneersQ4 2:41(2:41) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette left tackle to TB 42 for 11 yards (42-A.Sendejo, 30-G.Odum).
13.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 63% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Colts at 4 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 11 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 8 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.35 expected points per carry, against Colts at +0.15 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Buccaneers172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(11:52) 2-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +21.0 for ColtsExpected points +4.82 for ColtsThe model had Colts 17 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:52IND +21% win prob(11:52) 2-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:44TB +17% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal to IND 46 for 9 yards (32-M.Edwards). FUMBLES (32-M.Edwards), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at IND 46. 54-L.David to IND 34 for 12 yards (56-Q.Nelson, 81-M.Alie-Cox).
4th · 2:41IND +14% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette left tackle to TB 42 for 11 yards (42-A.Sendejo, 30-G.Odum).
4th · 12:36IND +13% win prob(12:36) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to IND 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-10-S.Miller at IND 19.
4th · 0:29IND +12% win prob(:29) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 7-L.Fournette left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:15IND +12% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Brate [57-K.Turay]. PENALTY on IND-38-T.Carrie, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at IND 10 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Leonard Fournette's 28-yard rushing touchdown with 0:29 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:36Michael Badgley·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+30–3
4th0:29Leonard Fournette·28-yd TD run28-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+738–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryColts
Buccaneers5–4Colts
360Total yards392
5.8Yards per play5.9
63%Success rate46%
25%Third-down rate45%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays8
24First downs23
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers4
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Buccaneers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.02Colts: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Buccaneers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.08Colts: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.35Buccaneers: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.15Colts: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Colts’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Colts 5.
NoteColts outgained Buccaneers 392-360 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, +9.8 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 12 — 4.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +5.5 pts in week 8.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 11.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 30.2% in week 11 against 70.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Colts8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.8 pts, 14.4 points above their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.7 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%67 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%67 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Every snap99%66 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time97%65 snaps
60Nick LeverettG · Full-time85%57 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time82%55 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time81%54 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Situational18%12 snaps
64Aaron StinnieG · Situational15%10 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Situational13%9 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational6%4 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational6%4 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Ali MarpetGKyle TraskQBKe'Shawn VaughnRBAndrew AdamsSSAntonio BrownWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Blaine GabbertQB
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
79Eric FisherT · Every snap100%69 snaps
2Carson WentzQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
72Braden SmithT · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Full-time96%66 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time94%65 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time93%64 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational36%25 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Situational13%9 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational6%4 snaps
69Matt PryorT · Situational4%3 snaps
62Chris ReedG · Situational4%3 snaps
10Dezmon PatmonWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 5
Ben BanoguDEWill FriesGMarlon MackRBJulien DavenportTMike StrachanWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Wells reported+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:29) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 7-L.Fournette left end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:29 · Buccaneers · 1st & 10 at IND 28 · gained 28 · +3.73 EP · +20.8% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 90 yards from the IND 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
51%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0056%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2272%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.5661%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3280%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.56100%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 26
Buccaneers0Colts3
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 26
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Colts 39
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 43
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 23
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 37
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Buccaneers 24
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 12
2nd quarter57 plays
Buccaneers6Colts3
Buccaneers7Colts3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Colts 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Buccaneers7Colts9
Buccaneers7Colts10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 38
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 46
Buccaneers7Colts16
Buccaneers7Colts17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Buccaneers 15
Buccaneers13Colts17
Buccaneers14Colts17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Colts 4
Buccaneers14Colts23
Buccaneers14Colts24
Touchdown19 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Buccaneers 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Buccaneers 20
Buccaneers20Colts24
Buccaneers21Colts24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Colts 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Buccaneers 46
Buccaneers27Colts24
Buccaneers28Colts24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Colts 1
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Buccaneers 42
Buccaneers31Colts24
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 6
Buccaneers31Colts30
Buccaneers31Colts31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Buccaneers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Buccaneers37Colts31
Buccaneers38Colts31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Colts 28
Intercepted4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3
Closing total
53
Buccaneers moneyline
-149
Colts moneyline
+135
Buccaneers closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 53; the game landed 69 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Buccaneers 6 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Frank Reich
3rd · 11:05TB +11% win prob(11:05) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at TB 29 for -9 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-58-S.Barrett at TB 32. 58-S.Barrett to TB 35 for 3 yards (64-M.Glowinski). Credit TB #58 Barrett with a 12-yard sack.
3rd · 5:38TB +11% win prob(5:38) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield at TB 5. 31-A.Winfield to TB 35 for 30 yards (14-Z.Pascal, 11-M.Pittman).
