2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Soldier Field

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Chicago Bears

ARI -7.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓Cardinals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Arizona Cardinals 33–22. Biggest swing: Q1 4:06, ARI +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:06ARI — CHI CHI ball · 3rd & 6ARI 85%

(4:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 8. 3-B.Baker to CHI 15 for 77 yards (32-D.Montgomery; 14-A.Dalton). Penalty on CHI-75-L.Borom, Illegal Formation, decli

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:06ARI +10% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 8. 3-B.Baker to CHI 15 for 77 yards (32-D.Montgomery; 14-A.Dalton). Penalty on CHI-75-L.Borom, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q1 · 13:42ARI +7% win prob(13:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 17-J.Grant INTERCEPTED by 34-J.Thompson at CHI 34. 34-J.Thompson pushed ob at CHI 28 for 6 yards (17-J.Grant).
Q1 · 11:02CHI +6% win prob(11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:48ARI +5% win prob(11:48) 14-A.Dalton pass short left intended for 10-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy (55-C.Jones) at CHI 41. 7-B.Murphy pushed ob at CHI 28 for 13 yards (85-C.Kmet).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Bears
Offensive plays	52	72
Total yards	257	331 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	46% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	40%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	6/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	14	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Bears outgained Cardinals 331–257 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Andy DaltonQB

26/41, 229 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT

-15.3 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

11/15, 123 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

21 att, 90 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

20 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Jakeem GrantWR

5/7 for 62 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

8/9 for 51 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	4	4	1:25	Interception
2	ARI	CHI 28	5	28	2:40	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 25	11	40	7:04	Interception
4	ARI	CHI 15	6	22	2:12	Touchdown
5	CHI	CHI 23	15	77	7:49	Touchdown
6	ARI	ARI 26	9	74	3:10	Touchdown
7	CHI	CHI 25	6	3	2:15	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 19	4	10	1:34	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 43	4	8	0:41	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 16	5	18	1:10	End of half
11	ARI	ARI 34	10	51	5:08	Turnover on downs
12	CHI	CHI 27	15	75	7:03	Touchdown
13	ARI	ARI 19	7	11	3:05	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 2	7	13	3:08	Interception
15	ARI	CHI 28	6	21	3:05	Turnover on downs
16	CHI	CHI 25	6	23	1:23	Interception
17	ARI	CHI 12	3	12	0:45	Touchdown
18	CHI	CHI 25	14	77	3:38	Touchdown
19	ARI	CHI 45	8	10	2:26	Turnover on downs
20	CHI	CHI 35	1	11	0:19	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 77 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	11/15	123	2	0	1	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	20	75	3.8	0	-2.4
Kyler Murray	10	59	5.9	2	4.8
Rondale Moore	3	2	0.7	0	-1.3
Eno Benjamin	2	1	0.5	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Conner	2	2	36	1	13%	4.1
DeAndre Hopkins	2	2	32	1	13%	5.4
A.J. Green	1	1	14	0	7%	1.0
Eno Benjamin	1	1	12	0	7%	1.3
Zach Ertz	1	2	10	0	13%	-0.3
Rondale Moore	1	2	8	0	13%	0.1
Demetrius Harris	2	2	7	0	13%	-0.1
Christian Kirk	1	3	4	0	20%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	7	4	1.0	0	0
Jalen Thompson	7	3	0.0	1	1
Budda Baker	4	2	0.0	1	1
Byron Murphy	4	2	0.5	1	2
Isaiah Simmons	2	3	0.0	0	1
Chandler Jones	3	2	0.5	0	2
Dennis Gardeck	3	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Allen	1	3	1.0	1	1
Jordan Phillips	3	1	0.0	0	0
Antonio Hamilton	2	0	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	26/41	229	2	4	3	-15.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	21	90	4.3	1	2.5
Khalil Herbert	4	16	4.0	0	1.0
Andy Dalton	2	6	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakeem Grant	5	7	62	1	18%	2.9
David Montgomery	8	9	51	0	23%	-3.6
Cole Kmet	3	7	41	0	18%	-7.2
Damiere Byrd	3	7	36	0	18%	-3.5
Darnell Mooney	5	7	27	0	18%	-1.1
Khalil Herbert	1	1	11	0	3%	-0.3
Jimmy Graham	1	1	1	1	3%	2.2
Rodney Adams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	3	4	0.0	0
Artie Burns	6	0	0.0	1
Eddie Jackson	4	1	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	3	2	0.0	0
Angelo Blackson	2	2	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	3	1	0.0	0
Trevis Gipson	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Robert Quinn	3	0	1.0	0
Andy Dalton	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -7.5
Closing total: 43.5
ARI moneyline: -373
CHI moneyline: +314

Cardinals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 55 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: ARI 14 days · CHI 10 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Matt Nagy