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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 13
It turned at Q1 4:06, 3rd and 6, on Budda Baker — 9.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:06 · 3rd and 6
Budda Baker
Cardinals
(4:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 8. 3-B.Baker to CHI 15 for 77 yards (32-D.Montgomery; 14-A.Dalton). Penalty on CHI-75-L.Borom, Illegal Formation, declined.
Arizona Cardinals 33–22. Biggest swing: Q1 4:06, Cardinals +9.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 4 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(4:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 8. 3-B.Baker to CHI 15 for 77 yards (32-D.Montgomery; 14-A.Dalton). Penalty on CHI-75-L.Borom, Illegal Formation, decli
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
DeAndre Hopkins's 20-yard touchdown catch with 11:02 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
DeAndre Hopkins20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Kyler MurrayLead never changed again+77–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryBears
Cardinals ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 52 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Bears’s 72 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Bears 4.
Bears outgained Cardinals 331-257 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's early-down pass rate, 34.2%, is past their previous low of 43.1% in week 6 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected, −7.3 pts, is past their previous low of −4.6 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 13.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 37.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-7.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.4 vs their 0.2 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 51 snaps
Bears-4.8 ptsright on their number · −2.3 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 85%
Tendencies room →Cardinals34.2%leaned — ran early · −22.1 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 38 early downs
Bears54.9%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 154%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.6%.
Bears100.0%leaned — went for it · +40.7 vs their 59.3%, and they swing ±37.1 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 41%
Tendencies room →Cardinals10.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bears4.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.8 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
ARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.2%, 22.1 points below their season mean of 56.3% and 2.0 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
26/41, 229 yds, 2 TD, 4 INT
-15.3 expected points added · -5.6% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
11/15, 123 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.7 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
8/9 for 51 yds, 0 TD
23% of team targets · -3.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Kyler Murray banked 11.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 30.8 | +11.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/15, 123 yd, 2 TD · 10 car, 59 yd, 2 TD |
| David MontgomeryRB · Bell Cow Back | 28.1 | +1.1 | 70% | 61% | 23% | 0% | 21 car, 90 yd, 1 TD · 8/9, 51 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 19.1 | −3.4 | 91% | 71% | 13% | 0% | 20 car, 75 yd · 2/2, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Jakeem GrantWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.2 | +6.8 | 63% | 72% | 18% | 17% | 5/7, 62 yd, 1 TD |
| Andy DaltonQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −9.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/41, 229 yd, 2 TD, 4 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +6.2 | 74% | 57% | 13% | 48% | 2/2, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Jimmy GrahamTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +3.8 | 28% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −3.8 | 95% | 91% | 18% | 16% | 5/7, 27 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | −3.5 | 72% | 83% | 18% | 29% | 3/7, 41 yd |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −4.7 | 86% | 83% | 18% | 29% | 3/7, 36 yd |
| Khalil HerbertRB | 3.7 | +0.2 | 29% | 35% | 3% | 2% | 4 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Demetrius HarrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.3 | 32% | 29% | 13% | 0% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.6 | 68% | 48% | 7% | 24% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 2.3 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −1.5 | 77% | 71% | 13% | 26% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −3.3 | 43% | 48% | 13% | 0% | 3 car, 2 yd · 1/2, 8 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Featured Receiver | 1.4 | −5.2 | 60% | 43% | 20% | 29% | 1/3, 4 yd |
| Rodney AdamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 13% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:06) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 8. 3-B.Baker to CHI 15 for 77 yards (32-D.Montgomery; 14-A.Dalton). Penalty on CHI-75-L.Borom, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q1 4:06 · Bears · 3rd & 6 at ARI 20 · gained nothing · -8.69 EP · −18.7% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 77 yards from the CHI 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals6
Bears0Cardinals7Bears0Cardinals13Bears0Cardinals14Bears0Cardinals14Bears6Cardinals14Bears7Cardinals20Bears7Cardinals21Bears7Cardinals24Bears7Cardinals24Bears13Cardinals24Bears14Cardinals27Bears14Cardinals33Bears14Cardinals33Bears20Cardinals33Bears22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 11/15 | 123 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +7.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Kyler Murray | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 | 13% | +4.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 13% | +5.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Budda Baker | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Byron Murphy |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/41 | 229 | 2 | 4 | 3 | −15.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_13_ARI_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cardinals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 55 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Eno Benjamin | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +1.0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 13% | −0.3 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 13% | −0.1 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 20% | −2.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.5 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chandler Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Phillips | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Hamilton | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |
| 90 |
| 4.3 |
| 1 |
| +2.5 |
| Khalil Herbert | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakeem Grant | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 18% | +2.9 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 9 | 51 | 0 | 23% | −3.6 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 18% | −7.2 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 18% | −3.5 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 18% | −1.1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +2.2 |
| Rodney Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Artie Burns | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eddie Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Angelo Blackson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Nichols | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevis Gipson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Quinn | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
