2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Heinz Field

Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

BAL -4 upsetU 44 ✓Ravens closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, BAL +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:12BAL — PIT BAL ballPIT 52%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:12BAL +31% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 · 0:16PIT +28% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:52PIT +18% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:36BAL +13% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT -5. Touchback. Pressure by 90-T.Watt.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Steelers
Offensive plays	70	57
Total yards	326 (edge)	324
Yards per play	4.7	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.05	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	39%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	-0.12 (edge)
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	7	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Ravens outgained Steelers 326–324 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

23/37, 253 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.6 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

21/31, 236 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

21 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

8 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

8/11 for 105 yds, 2 TD

37% of team targets · 11.7 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

5/7 for 55 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	12	75	6:30	Interception
2	PIT	PIT 20	4	9	1:35	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 33	4	-1	1:38	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 27	4	8	1:13	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 1	17	94	10:27	Touchdown
6	PIT	PIT 18	6	24	2:21	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 27	7	15	4:28	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 13	9	52	1:21	Turnover on downs
9	BAL	BAL 25	4	8	0:27	End of half
10	PIT	PIT 10	8	11	2:16	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 42	10	46	5:20	Turnover on downs
12	PIT	PIT 20	10	31	3:48	Punt
13	BAL	BAL 24	7	19	2:57	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 22	5	78	1:38	Touchdown
15	BAL	BAL 38	6	10	2:10	Turnover on downs
16	PIT	PIT 25	11	50	4:33	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	BAL 25	5	-5	0:57	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 31	12	61	4:33	Touchdown
19	BAL	BAL 40	10	65	1:36	Touchdown
20	PIT	BAL 45	2	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 94 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	23/37	253	1	1	7	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	8	55	6.9	0	3.8
Devonta Freeman	14	52	3.7	1	-0.5
Latavius Murray	2	1	0.5	0	-1.3
Nate McCrary	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	5	7	55	0	19%	2.2
Mark Andrews	4	9	50	0	24%	-1.9
Devonta Freeman	5	8	45	0	22%	2.6
Sammy Watkins	4	6	39	1	16%	3.8
Latavius Murray	2	2	34	0	5%	3.4
Devin Duvernay	2	3	21	0	8%	0.0
Patrick Ricard	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Rashod Bateman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Brandon Williams	3	5	0
Brandon Stephens	5	2	0
Chuck Clark	3	2	1
Patrick Queen	4	1	0
Josh Bynes	1	4	0
Jimmy Smith	3	1	0
Odafe Oweh	2	2	1
Marlon Humphrey	3	0	0
Anthony Averett	3	0	0
Malik Harrison	1	1	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	21/31	236	2	0	1	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Najee Harris	21	71	3.4	-3.5
Benny Snell	2	13	6.5	1.1
Chase Claypool	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Ben Roethlisberger	1	-1	-1.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	8	11	105	2	37%	11.7
Chase Claypool	2	3	52	0	10%	1.9
Najee Harris	5	5	36	0	17%	0.8
Pat Freiermuth	3	4	26	0	13%	0.3
Zach Gentry	2	2	10	0	7%	0.4
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	4	7	0	13%	-3.9
James Washington	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	7	2	0.0	1	1
Joe Schobert	6	1	0.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	5	1	3.5	0	0
Chris Wormley	3	2	2.5	0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	4	0	0.0	0	1
Cameron Sutton	3	0	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	1	1.0	0	0
Montravius Adams	1	1	0.0	0	1
Henry Mondeaux	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -4
Closing total: 44
BAL moneyline: -195
PIT moneyline: +174

Ravens closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 39 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 50°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: BAL 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.