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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Ravens167 of 180 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:12Ravens 19 — Steelers 20BAL ballPIT 52%
Ravens 48%Steelers 52%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing +30.9 for SteelersExpected points +0.95 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 6 points higher than the market did.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:12BAL +31% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:16PIT +28% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:52PIT +18% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:36BAL +13% win prob(8:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at PIT -5. Touchback. Pressure by 90-T.Watt.
4th · 14:08PIT +12% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:18PIT +10% win prob(9:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 89-M.Andrews to PIT 3 for 29 yards (20-C.Sutton, 39-M.Fitzpatrick) [90-T.Watt].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Diontae Johnson's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:52 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd0:32Chris Boswell·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+37–3
3rd7:29Justin Tucker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+310–3
4th14:08Diontae Johnson·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · kick no good, wide left+610–9
4th11:54Justin Tucker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+313–9
4th7:23Chris Boswell·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+313–12
4th1:52Diontae Johnson·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point goodLead never changed again+813–20
4th0:16Sammy Watkins·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar Jacksonfrom Lamar Jackson · two-point no good+619–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categorySteelers
Ravens5–4Steelers
326Total yards324
4.7Yards per play5.7
39%Success rate49%
50%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
20First downs16
7Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.11Steelers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Ravens: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.28Steelers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Ravens: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.12Steelers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 70 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Steelers’s 57 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Steelers 2.
NoteRavens outgained Steelers 326-324 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers18.8%
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PIT's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 27.1% — and PIT swings 29.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%74 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%74 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Full-time86%64 snaps
33Devonta FreemanRB · Heavy rotation69%51 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Heavy rotation59%44 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Heavy rotation54%40 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation51%38 snaps
74Tyre PhillipsG · Rotational46%34 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational46%34 snaps
12Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational45%33 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational34%25 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Situational19%14 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Situational11%8 snaps
11James ProcheWR · Situational8%6 snaps
47Nate McCraryRB · Situational3%2 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Chris WestryCBJaylon FergusonOLBTy'Son WilliamsRBNick BoyleTEMiles BoykinWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Trystan ColonCTyler HuntleyQB
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%60 snaps
51Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%60 snaps
53Kendrick GreenC · Every snap100%60 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Dan MooreT · Full-time98%59 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Full-time97%58 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time95%57 snaps
77John LeglueT · Full-time95%57 snaps
88Pat FreiermuthTE · Heavy rotation73%44 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Heavy rotation67%40 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation63%38 snaps
81Zach GentryTE · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Rotational37%22 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational10%6 snaps
67B.J. FinneyC · Situational5%3 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational3%2 snaps
39Minkah FitzpatrickSS · Situational2%1 snap
15Cody WhiteWR · Situational2%1 snap
72Zach BannerT · Situational2%1 snap
87Kevin RaderTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Joe HadenCBIsaiah BuggsDECarlos DavisDTDwayne HaskinsQBAnthony McFarlandRB
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:12 · Ravens · — at PIT 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −28.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 99 yards from the BAL 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
649
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.1865%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1884%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.0231%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3275%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3138%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.8157%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7+0.1243%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 10
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 29
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 1 to the Ravens 25
2nd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Ravens6Steelers0
Ravens7Steelers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 28 to the Steelers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 42
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 27 to midfield
Ravens7Steelers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Ravens 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 33
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 21
Ravens10Steelers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Steelers 12
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Ravens 49
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Ravens 45
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter61 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Ravens10Steelers9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Ravens 29
Ravens13Steelers9
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Steelers 11
Ravens13Steelers12
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Ravens 25
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens13Steelers18
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Ravens 5
Ravens13Steelers20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Ravens19Steelers20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Steelers 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
