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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Cowboys176 of 185 plays carry both curves
(4:06) 20-T.Pollard left end for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.9 for SaintsExpected points −5.47 for SaintsThe model had Saints 13 points higher than the market did.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:06NO +13% win prob(4:06) 20-T.Pollard left end for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:02NO +10% win prob(13:02) 7-T.Hill pass short left to 84-L.Humphrey for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 9
1st · 5:16DAL +8% win prob(5:16) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
1st · 3:00NO +8% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper to NO 36 for 41 yards (26-P.Williams) [96-C.Granderson]. Pass 20, YAC 21
1st · 1:51NO +7% win prob(1:51) (No Huddle) 88-C.Lamb left end to NO 1 for 33 yards (43-M.Williams).
1st · 7:56DAL +7% win prob(7:56) 19-B.Maher 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
1st · 9:50NO +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 55-yard field goal with 9:10 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:05Michael Gallup·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+77–0
Cowboys ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.27Saints: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Cowboys: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.40Saints: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Cowboys: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.00Saints: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 62 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Saints’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Saints 2.
NoteSaints outgained Cowboys 405-380 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Saints17.1%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.0%, 12.6 points above their season mean of 50.4% and 1.1 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 3 inactive · 1 never used
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%70 snaps
63Tyler BiadaszC · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%70 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time96%67 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time91%64 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Full-time89%62 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation64%45 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Rotational40%28 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Rotational34%24 snaps
84Sean McKeonTE · Rotational27%19 snaps
17Malik TurnerWR · Rotational26%18 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational17%12 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Situational10%7 snaps
81Simi FehokoWR · Situational4%3 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 3
Azur KamaraDEWill GrierQBCedrick WilsonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cooper RushQB
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
76Calvin ThrockmortonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
74James HurstT · Every snap100%70 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%70 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%70 snaps
79Jordan MillsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
1Marquez CallawayWR · Heavy rotation69%48 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation67%47 snaps
81Nick VannettTE · Heavy rotation60%42 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryWR · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
45Garrett GriffinTE · Rotational46%32 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational43%30 snaps
14Mark IngramRB · Rotational43%30 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Rotational40%28 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational34%24 snaps
64Will ClappC · Situational21%15 snaps
12Kenny StillsWR · Situational16%11 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Situational10%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Marcus DavenportDEKaden EllissOLBIan BookQBAlvin KamaraRBTony JonesRBRyan RamczykTTerron ArmsteadT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Pollard left+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:06) 20-T.Pollard left end for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:06 · Cowboys · 2nd & 10 at DAL 42 · gained 58 · +5.47 EP · +18.1% win probability
174 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 80 yards from the DAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
33%
Yards
782
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1479%
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR28-0.2771%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0739%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11-0.2382%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.140%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.6533%
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 43
Punt5 plays
No good7 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Cowboys 37
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Saints 34
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys6Saints0
Cowboys7Saints0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Saints 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 47
2nd quarter51 plays
Cowboys7Saints6
Cowboys7Saints7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Cowboys 24
Cowboys10Saints7
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Saints 36
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Cowboys 26
Cowboys13Saints7
Field goal18 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Saints 7
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 20
Cowboys13Saints10
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Cowboys 24
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 33
Punt5 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys19Saints10
Cowboys20Saints10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 42
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Cowboys 34
4th quarter51 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 4 to the Saints 44
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 18
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 35
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Cowboys 32
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 31
Intercepted2 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 37
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to midfield
Cowboys26Saints10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 33
Cowboys27Saints10
Cowboys27Saints16
Cowboys27Saints17
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
