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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:10 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 13
It turned at Q3 11:10, 1st and 10, on Patrick Surtain — 6.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Kansas City Chiefs 22–9. Biggest swing: Q3 11:10, Broncos +6.4% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:10 · 1st and 10
Patrick Surtain
Broncos
(11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 21. 2-P.Surtain to DEN 21 for no gain (10-T.Hill).
6.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 4 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — -0.06 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 21. 2-P.Surtain to DEN 21 for no gain (10-T.Hill).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Patrick Mahomes's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 7:05 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Harrison Butker26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–16
Daniel Sorensen75-yd defence TD75-yard touchdownthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide left+63–22
Javonte Williams13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Teddy Bridgewater · two-point no good+69–227 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 73 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 52 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Chiefs 2.
Broncos outgained Chiefs 404-269 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 57.1% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.6 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-7.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 72 snaps
Chiefs6.5 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their 9.2 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 92%
Tendencies room →Broncos55.8%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 52 early downs
Chiefs55.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Broncos75.0%leaned — went for it · +40.4 vs their 34.6%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 27%
Tendencies room →Broncos9.4%inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Chiefs15.6%inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 40.4 points above their season mean of 34.6% and 1.6 times their own 24.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
22/40, 257 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-10.9 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected
Passing · KC
15/29, 184 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-2.6 expected points added · -17.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
6/9 for 76 yds, 1 TD
25% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Javonte Williams banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 29.8 | +5.4 | 78% | 73% | 25% | 1% | 23 car, 102 yd · 6/9, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 12.6 | −0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/29, 184 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/40, 257 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 17 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.7 | +1.9 | 73% | 78% | 17% | 19% | 4/6, 77 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | −0.7 | 51% | 41% | 11% | 0% | 14 car, 54 yd · 3/3, 28 yd |
| Darrel WilliamsRB · Receiving Back | 11.0 | +3.0 | 46% | 53% | 11% | 13% | 5 car, 20 yd · 3/3, 60 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +0.3 | 75% | 64% | 11% | 6% | 4/4, 33 yd |
| Mike BooneRB | 6.4 | +3.1 | 22% | 20% | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 35 yd · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 5.7 | −7.6 | 77% | 78% | 30% | 40% | 3/8, 27 yd |
| Albert OkwuegbunamTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.1 | 43% | 36% | 11% | 6% | 3/4, 21 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 4.2 | −4.4 | 88% | 91% | 19% | 31% | 2/5, 22 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.1 | 54% | 56% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −6.9 | 88% | 87% | 17% | 41% | 2/6, 15 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −4.1 | 72% | 72% | 15% | 16% | 1/4, 14 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 16% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −6.0 | 87% | 84% | 14% | 19% | 1/5, 9 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 18% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 0.3 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Diontae SpencerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marcus KempWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 21. 2-P.Surtain to DEN 21 for no gain (10-T.Hill).
Q3 11:10 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at DEN 32 · gained nothing · -4.55 EP · −8.4% win probability
158 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 88 yards from the DEN 3 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Chiefs6Broncos0Chiefs7Broncos0Chiefs10Broncos3Chiefs10Broncos3Chiefs13Broncos3Chiefs16Broncos3Chiefs22Broncos9Chiefs22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Chiefs, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 22/40 | 257 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Mike Boone | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 6 | 77 | 0 | 17% | −1.0 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 25% | +5.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Young | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Reed |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/29 | 184 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_13_DEN_KC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 13.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 31 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 11% | +0.6 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 11% | −0.2 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 17% | −0.3 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −10.0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Stephen | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 54 |
| 3.9 |
| 0 |
| −0.9 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 | 11% | +4.4 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +0.5 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 30% | −3.0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 19% | −2.9 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 15% | −0.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Marcus Kemp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrann Mathieu | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Hitchens | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Niemann | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Juan Thornhill | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jarran Reed | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deandre Baker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bolton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
