2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Denver Broncos

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -8.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓22 mph windChiefs closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Kansas City Chiefs 22–9. Biggest swing: Q3 11:10, DEN +6% win probability on one snap. Played in 22 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:10DEN — KC KC ball · 1st & 10KC 93%

(11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 21. 2-P.Surtain to DEN 21 for no gain (10-T.Hill).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:10DEN +6% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 21. 2-P.Surtain to DEN 21 for no gain (10-T.Hill).
Q2 · 4:27KC +5% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to KC 32 for 10 yards (35-C.Ward).
Q1 · 13:44DEN +4% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at DEN 26 for -7 yards (sack split by 50-W.Gay and 24-M.Ingram).
Q2 · 1:12DEN +4% win prob(1:12) 33-J.Williams up the middle to KC 9 for -1 yards (50-W.Gay, 24-M.Ingram).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chiefs
Offensive plays	73	52
Total yards	404 (edge)	269
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	-0.14	-0.04 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	62%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	4/14	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Broncos outgained Chiefs 404–269 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

22/40, 257 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-10.9 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

15/29, 184 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.6 expected points added · -17.0% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

23 att, 102 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

14 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

4/6 for 77 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

6/9 for 76 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	2:01	Punt
2	KC	KC 28	13	82	6:03	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	1:04	Punt
4	KC	KC 21	9	42	3:30	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 25	11	71	3:48	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 25	6	16	1:18	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 3	20	83	11:07	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 9	4	2	1:05	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 45	2	34	0:04	End of half
10	KC	KC 25	9	43	3:56	Interception
11	DEN	DEN 21	4	7	2:06	Punt
12	KC	KC 24	7	60	3:23	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 20	7	31	3:33	Interception
14	KC	KC 33	4	12	2:02	Punt
15	KC	DEN 16	4	8	1:34	Turnover on downs
16	DEN	DEN 25	9	43	3:44	Defensive touchdown
17	DEN	DEN 25	13	85	4:30	Touchdown
18	KC	KC 49	7	4	2:29	Punt
19	DEN	DEN 15	7	48	1:33	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 42	2	0	1:10	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	22/40	257	1	2	1	-10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	23	102	4.4	-3.3
Mike Boone	4	35	8.8	1.7
Teddy Bridgewater	4	17	4.3	2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	4	6	77	0	17%	-1.0
Javonte Williams	6	9	76	1	25%	5.6
Noah Fant	4	4	33	0	11%	0.6
Albert Okwuegbunam	3	4	21	0	11%	-0.2
Mike Boone	1	1	19	0	3%	2.4
Courtland Sutton	2	6	15	0	17%	-0.3
Tim Patrick	1	5	9	0	14%	-10.0
Kendall Hinton	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenny Young	4	4	0.0	0
Baron Browning	7	1	0.0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	5	0.0	1
Malik Reed	2	2	0.0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	3	1	1.0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	1	0.0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	2	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	2	0	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	2	0	0.0	0
Jonathon Cooper	1	1	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	15/29	184	0	1	1	-2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	14	54	3.9	0	-0.9
Darrel Williams	5	20	4.0	0	0.1
Patrick Mahomes	4	12	3.0	1	0.6
Michael Burton	1	3	3.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Darrel Williams	3	3	60	11%	4.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	3	28	11%	0.5
Travis Kelce	3	8	27	30%	-3.0
Tyreek Hill	2	5	22	19%	-2.9
Demarcus Robinson	2	2	21	7%	1.3
Byron Pringle	1	4	14	15%	-0.7
Mecole Hardman	1	1	12	4%	0.7
Marcus Kemp	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrann Mathieu	7	2	0.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	4	3	0.0	0	1
Anthony Hitchens	2	4	0.0	0	0
Willie Gay	2	4	0.5	0	1
Ben Niemann	4	1	0.0	0	1
Juan Thornhill	3	2	0.0	1	1
Jarran Reed	3	1	0.0	0	0
Deandre Baker	3	1	0.0	0	1
L'Jarius Sneed	1	2	0.0	0	0
Nick Bolton	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -8.5
Closing total: 46.5
DEN moneyline: +323
KC moneyline: -387

Chiefs closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 31 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 22 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: DEN 7 days · KC 14 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 22 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.