2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Houston Texans

IND -10 ✓U 45.5 ✓DomeColts closed -10 and covered, winning by 31.

Indianapolis Colts 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, IND +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 15:00IND — HOU HOU ball · 1st & 10IND 82%

(15:00) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Davis (23-K.Moore). Indianapolis challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 81-D.Davis INTERCEPTED by

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 15:00IND +6% win prob(15:00) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Davis (23-K.Moore). Indianapolis challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Taylor pass short right intended for 81-D.Davis INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at HOU 29. 23-K.Moore ran ob at HOU 29 for no gain.
Q1 · 4:28IND +4% win prob(4:28) 6-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q1 · 9:40IND +3% win prob(9:40) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 85-P.Brown to HOU 49 for 5 yards (23-K.Moore). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore), RECOVERED by IND-27-X.Rhodes at IND 49.
Q2 · 9:31HOU +3% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles up the middle to HOU 33 for 7 yards (37-K.Willis).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Texans
Offensive plays	69	50
Total yards	391 (edge)	141
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	2.8
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	-0.62
Success rate	57% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	35%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.77
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.62.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

16/22, 158 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

6/14, 49 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.3 expected points added · -25.4% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

32 att, 143 yds, 2 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Rex BurkheadRB

8 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

6/8 for 77 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

3/6 for 38 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
2	IND	HOU 29	7	29	3:29	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 23	5	26	1:55	Fumble
4	IND	IND 49	9	40	5:06	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 25	4	4	0:57	Punt
6	IND	IND 28	8	36	4:25	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 1	4	6	1:30	Punt
8	IND	IND 45	4	3	1:06	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 9	10	13	4:28	Punt
10	IND	IND 46	12	54	6:16	Touchdown
11	HOU	HOU 25	5	-1	0:30	Punt
12	IND	IND 26	1	0	0:13	End of half
13	IND	IND 25	11	75	5:13	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 22	6	18	1:49	Punt
15	IND	IND 19	6	31	4:08	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 18	9	42	4:34	Turnover on downs
17	IND	IND 41	8	60	5:08	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 25	5	0	0:22	Punt
19	IND	IND 49	4	18	2:17	Fumble
20	HOU	HOU 31	4	9	1:00	Turnover on downs
21	IND	HOU 40	10	45	3:33	Touchdown
22	HOU	HOU 25	8	24	1:15	Turnover on downs
23	IND	HOU 49	1	0	0:41	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	16/22	158	1	0	1	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	32	143	4.5	2	0.1
Michael Pittman	2	33	16.5	0	2.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	24	8.0	0	2.9
Deon Jackson	6	19	3.2	1	1.1
Zach Pascal	1	12	12.0	0	1.1
Carson Wentz	3	8	2.7	0	1.6
Sam Ehlinger	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	6	8	77	0	36%	4.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	4	32	0	18%	1.2
T.Y. Hilton	2	2	22	0	9%	1.5
Jack Doyle	1	1	13	0	5%	1.9
Zach Pascal	1	3	6	0	14%	-2.9
Kylen Granson	1	2	6	0	9%	-1.6
Ashton Dulin	1	1	2	1	5%	0.9
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	0	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Khari Willis	5	0	0.0	0	1
Shaquille Leonard	2	2	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	3	1	0.0	1	2
Al-Quadin Muhammad	3	0	2.0	0	0
George Odum	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kemoko Turay	2	0	2.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kwity Paye	1	1	0.0	0	0
Antwaun Woods	1	1	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	6/14	49	0	0	2	-12.3
Tyrod Taylor	5/13	45	0	1	2	-10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rex Burkhead	8	30	3.8	-2.8
Brandin Cooks	1	16	16.0	0.9
Tyrod Taylor	3	15	5.0	0.4
Davis Mills	2	11	5.5	0.1
Royce Freeman	3	10	3.3	-0.8
Jaylen Samuels	2	2	1.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	3	6	38	23%	-2.0
Pharaoh Brown	4	5	23	19%	-4.8
Rex Burkhead	1	2	15	8%	1.3
Royce Freeman	1	1	11	4%	0.9
Brevin Jordan	2	4	7	15%	-2.3
Jaylen Samuels	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Davion Davis	0	2	0	8%	-6.4
Nico Collins	0	1	0	4%	-2.3
Chris Conley	0	4	0	15%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kamu Grugier-Hill	10	10	1.0	0
Desmond King	5	1	0.0	0
Justin Reid	2	3	0.0	0
Christian Kirksey	3	2	0.0	1
Maliek Collins	3	1	0.0	0
Terrance Mitchell	4	0	0.0	0
Kevin Pierre-Louis	2	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Owens	2	1	0.0	0
Tavierre Thomas	2	1	0.0	0
Eric Murray	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -10
Closing total: 45.5
IND moneyline: -408
HOU moneyline: +339

Colts closed -10 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 31 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: IND 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs David Culley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.