2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -14 ✓U 48 ✓DomeRams closed -14 and covered, winning by 30.

Los Angeles Rams 37–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:54, JAX +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:54JAX — LA JAX ball · 2nd & 8LA 85%

(11:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 34 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-5-J.Ramsey at JAX 35. 5-J.Ramsey to JAX 27 for 8 yards (16-T.Lawrence).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:54JAX +8% win prob(11:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 34 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-5-J.Ramsey at JAX 35. 5-J.Ramsey to JAX 27 for 8 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
Q1 · 15:00LA +7% win prob15-M.Wright kicks 64 yards from JAX 35 to LA 1. 19-B.Powell to JAX 34 for 65 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
Q1 · 13:15JAX +6% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 25-S.Michel to JAX 22 for -1 yards (5-R.Ford).
Q2 · 3:05JAX +5% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence to LA 43 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LA 42.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Rams
Offensive plays	55	66
Total yards	197	418 (edge)
Yards per play	3.6	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.38	0.24 (edge)
Success rate	31%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.85	0.10 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

26/38, 295 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.0 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

16/28, 145 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.9 expected points added · -19.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

24 att, 121 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

8 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-7.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

8/10 for 129 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 11.7 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Laquon TreadwellWR

4/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	JAX 34	7	12	2:40	Turnover on downs
2	JAX	JAX 31	3	3	0:34	Fumble
3	LA	JAX 27	4	32	1:21	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	5	6	1:32	Punt
5	LA	LA 1	8	26	3:58	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 27	14	61	6:32	Touchdown
7	LA	LA 17	11	57	5:42	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 40	5	-2	1:29	Punt
9	LA	LA 9	6	11	2:31	Punt
10	JAX	JAX 49	4	4	1:26	Punt
11	LA	LA 11	10	55	1:56	Turnover on downs
12	JAX	JAX 25	4	11	0:19	End of half
13	JAX	JAX 25	5	5	0:59	Punt
14	LA	LA 15	5	85	2:18	Touchdown
15	JAX	JAX 25	8	38	3:07	Turnover on downs
16	LA	LA 38	11	67	5:09	Touchdown
17	JAX	JAX 25	6	21	2:00	Fumble
18	LA	LA 45	11	41	5:35	Touchdown
19	JAX	JAX 25	10	31	6:02	Punt
20	LA	LA 9	5	32	2:35	Punt
21	JAX	JAX 1	5	19	2:15	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 85 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	16/28	145	0	0	2	-2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	8	24	3.0	0	-7.9
Carlos Hyde	9	24	2.7	1	-5.6
Trevor Lawrence	4	10	2.5	0	-1.5
C.J. Beathard	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	1	0.3	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Laquon Treadwell	4	5	62	18%	5.7
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	5	30	18%	0.1
James O'Shaughnessy	2	6	13	21%	-5.3
James Robinson	1	4	11	14%	-1.1
Marvin Jones	2	3	11	11%	1.1
Jaydon Mickens	2	2	10	7%	1.3
Tavon Austin	1	2	9	7%	0.1
Carlos Hyde	1	1	-1	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Andrew Wingard	3	5	0.0	0
Myles Jack	3	4	0.0	0
Rudy Ford	3	3	0.5	0
Dawuane Smoot	3	2	0.5	1
Damien Wilson	1	4	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	1	4	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	3	0	0.0	0
Chris Claybrooks	3	0	0.0	0
Tyson Campbell	1	2	0.0	0
Jihad Ward	1	1	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	26/38	295	3	0	1	13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	24	121	5.0	1	2.3
Mekhi Sargent	2	5	2.5	0	-1.1
Matthew Stafford	1	2	2.0	0	1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	8	10	129	1	27%	11.7
Tyler Higbee	5	6	48	0	16%	2.2
Van Jefferson	6	8	41	1	22%	1.4
Ben Skowronek	1	2	35	0	5%	1.1
Odell Beckham	2	5	28	1	14%	-0.2
Sony Michel	3	4	8	0	11%	-1.8
Kendall Blanton	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Fuller	5	3	0.0	0
Ernest Jones	2	4	0.5	1
Aaron Donald	1	4	1.0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	1	4	0.0	0
Greg Gaines	2	2	0.0	0
Darious Williams	4	0	0.0	1
Taylor Rapp	1	2	0.0	0
Nick Scott	2	1	0.0	0
Leonard Floyd	1	2	0.5	0
Donte Deayon	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -14
Closing total: 48
JAX moneyline: +597
LA moneyline: -796

Rams closed -14 and covered, winning by 30.

Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: JAX 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Urban Meyer vs Sean McVay