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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 13
It turned at Q1 11:54, 2nd and 8, on James Robinson — 8.4 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:54 · 2nd and 8
James Robinson
Rams
(11:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 34 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-5-J.Ramsey at JAX 35. 5-J.Ramsey to JAX 27 for 8 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
Los Angeles Rams 37–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:54, Rams +8.4% win probability on one snap.
8.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.85 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(11:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 34 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-5-J.Ramsey at JAX 35. 5-J.Ramsey to JAX 27 for 8 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Gay's 40-yard field goal with 12:24 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Matt Gay40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+30–38 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.85 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 1, Rams 5.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars-4.5 ptsright on their number · −2.5 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 55 snaps
Rams3.6 ptsright on their number · +0.8 vs their 2.8 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 34% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jaguars53.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 41 early downs
Rams56.6%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars50.0%inside their normal wobble · +14.5 vs their 35.5%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Rams25.0%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±14.8 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jaguars2.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −11.0 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Rams12.1%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
JAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 11.0 points below their season mean of 13.6% and 1.3 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
26/38, 295 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
13.0 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
16/28, 145 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.9 expected points added · -19.7% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
4/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD
18% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Laquon Treadwell banked 2.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | +2.6 | 93% | 85% | 18% | 21% | 4/5, 62 yd |
| Carlos HydeRB | 7.3 | −1.4 | 49% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 24 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 6.8 | −3.1 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 16/28, 145 yd · 4 car, 10 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −2.4 | 53% | 61% | 18% | 10% | 3 car, 1 yd · 3/5, 30 yd |
| James O'ShaughnessyTE · Featured Receiver | 3.3 | −5.9 | 66% | 64% | 21% | 31% | 2/6, 13 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −0.8 | 83% | 85% | 11% | 21% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Jaydon MickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| James RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 2.5 | −7.1 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 12% | 8 car, 24 yd · 1/4, 11 yd |
| Tavon AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.0 | 27% | 27% | 7% | 3% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| C.J. BeathardQB | 0.2 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson up the middle to JAX 34 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-5-J.Ramsey at JAX 35. 5-J.Ramsey to JAX 27 for 8 yards (16-T.Lawrence).
Q1 11:54 · Jaguars · 2nd & 8 at JAX 33 · gained 1 · -5.64 EP · −10.5% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 85 yards from the LA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars0
Rams3Jaguars0Rams9Jaguars0Rams10Jaguars6Rams10Jaguars7Rams10Jaguars7Rams13Jaguars7Rams16Jaguars7Rams22Jaguars7Rams23Jaguars7Rams29Jaguars7Rams30Jaguars7Rams36Jaguars7Rams37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 16/28 | 145 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −2.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 | −7.9 |
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 1 | −5.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 18% | +5.7 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 18% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wingard | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawuane Smoot |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/38 | 295 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +13.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_13_JAX_LA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -14 and covered, winning by 30.
Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −2.6 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 21% | −5.3 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11% | +1.1 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Damien Wilson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevin Lawson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Claybrooks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |
| 121 |
| 5.0 |
| 1 |
| +2.3 |
| Mekhi Sargent | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 10 | 129 | 1 | 27% | +11.7 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 16% | +2.2 |
| Van Jefferson | 6 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 22% | +1.4 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5% | +1.1 |
| Odell Beckham | 2 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 14% | −0.2 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 11% | −1.8 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Fuller | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ernest Jones | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Donald | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Rapp | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Deayon | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
