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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles41
BY 19final margin
BengalsCincinnati22
Los Angeles Chargers 41 at Cincinnati Bengals 22. Final.
Bengals -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 13
Los Angeles Chargers 41, Bengals 22 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 13:53, 2nd and 2, on Joe Mixon — 41.6 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:53 · 2nd and 2
Joe Mixon
Chargers
(13:53) 28-J.Mixon right guard to LAC 37 for -3 yards (95-C.Covington). FUMBLES (95-C.Covington), RECOVERED by LAC-20-T.Campbell at LAC 39. 20-T.Campbell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 49.5 ✓
Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 41–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:53, Chargers +41.6% win probability on one snap.
41.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike WilliamsChargersQ1 12:47(12:47) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to CIN 4 for 41 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
13.0pts
Austin EkelerBengalsQ3 9:06(9:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 31 for 9 yards (21-M.Hilton) [91-T.Hendrickson]. FUMBLES (21-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by CIN-57-G.Pratt at LAC 32.
11.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.67 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 13 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Chargers176 of 186 plays carry both curves
(13:53) 28-J.Mixon right guard to LAC 37 for -3 yards (95-C.Covington). FUMBLES (95-C.Covington), RECOVERED by LAC-20-T.Campbell at LAC 39. 20-T.Campbell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −41.6 for BengalsExpected points −10.69 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 139
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:53LAC +42% win prob(13:53) 28-J.Mixon right guard to LAC 37 for -3 yards (95-C.Covington). FUMBLES (95-C.Covington), RECOVERED by LAC-20-T.Campbell at LAC 39. 20-T.Campbell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:47CIN +13% win prob(12:47) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to CIN 4 for 41 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
3rd · 9:06LAC +12% win prob(9:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 31 for 9 yards (21-M.Hilton) [91-T.Hendrickson]. FUMBLES (21-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by CIN-57-G.Pratt at LAC 32.
2nd · 10:20CIN +12% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-J.Guyton for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-30-J.Bates III, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 8:53LAC +11% win prob(8:53) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 27 for -8 yards (42-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (42-U.Nwosu), RECOVERED by LAC-42-U.Nwosu at CIN 29. {Sack credited at -6 yards due to recovery}
2nd · 7:44CIN +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Keenan Allen's 4-yard touchdown catch with 11:36 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:36Keenan Allen·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–0
1st6:33Dustin Hopkins·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.Overton+39–0
4th1:15Dustin Hopkins·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap M.Overton+341–22
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBengals
Chargers6–3Bengals
365Total yards356
5.9Yards per play4.9
47%Success rate36%
31%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays8
19First downs21
4Sacks taken6
3Turnovers4
The read
Chargers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.29Bengals: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.08Bengals: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Chargers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.67Bengals: −0.67 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bengals’s 72 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Bengals 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +9.5 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bengals22.0%
leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.0%, 8.1 points above their season mean of 13.8% and 1.7 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Mixon right−44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:53) 28-J.Mixon right guard to LAC 37 for -3 yards (95-C.Covington). FUMBLES (95-C.Covington), RECOVERED by LAC-20-T.Campbell at LAC 39. 20-T.Campbell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 13:53 · Bengals · 2nd & 2 at LAC 34 · lost 5 · -10.69 EP · −43.6% win probability
174 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 75 yards from the CIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
38%
Yards
721
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0575%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0482%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1133%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-1.210%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chargers6Bengals0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Bengals 4
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 35
Chargers9Bengals0
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 25
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 29
Chargers15Bengals0
Chargers16Bengals0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Bengals 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 32
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 42 to the Bengals 39
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 22
Chargers22Bengals0
Chargers24Bengals0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Bengals 44
Chargers24Bengals6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chargers 29
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Bengals 43
Chargers24Bengals12
Chargers24Bengals13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Chargers 6
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Bengals 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 41
3rd quarter43 plays
Chargers24Bengals16
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chargers 30
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays
Chargers24Bengals22
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 42
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 46
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Chargers30Bengals22
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Chargers 34
Chargers31Bengals22
Punt5 plays
Chargers37Bengals22
Chargers38Bengals22
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Bengals 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chargers 10
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 43
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 40
Chargers41Bengals22
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 25
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -2.5
Closing total
49.5
Chargers moneyline
+127
Bengals moneyline
-141
Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 63 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Brandon Staley vs Zac Taylor
(7:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 85-T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:22LAC +9% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler to CIN 36 for 7 yards (57-G.Pratt; 29-V.Hargreaves). FUMBLES (57-G.Pratt), RECOVERED by CIN-30-J.Bates III at CIN 35. 30-J.Bates III pushed ob at LAC 19 for 46 yards (10-J.Herbert). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 5:04LAC +8% win prob(5:04) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 30 for -12 yards (sack split by 24-V.Bell and 96-C.Sample).
Chargerscategory by categoryBengals
Chargers6
Bengals0
