2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -2.5 upsetO 49.5 ✓Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Chargers 41–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:53, LAC +42% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:53LAC — CIN CIN ball · 2nd & 2CIN 60%

(13:53) 28-J.Mixon right guard to LAC 37 for -3 yards (95-C.Covington). FUMBLES (95-C.Covington), RECOVERED by LAC-20-T.Campbell at LAC 39. 20-T.Campbell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:53LAC +42% win prob(13:53) 28-J.Mixon right guard to LAC 37 for -3 yards (95-C.Covington). FUMBLES (95-C.Covington), RECOVERED by LAC-20-T.Campbell at LAC 39. 20-T.Campbell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:47CIN +13% win prob(12:47) (No Huddle) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to CIN 4 for 41 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
Q3 · 9:06LAC +12% win prob(9:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 31 for 9 yards (21-M.Hilton) [91-T.Hendrickson]. FUMBLES (21-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by CIN-57-G.Pratt at LAC 32.
Q2 · 10:20CIN +12% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-J.Guyton for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-30-J.Bates III, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Bengals
Offensive plays	62	72
Total yards	365 (edge)	356
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.29
Success rate	47% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	66%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.67
Third downs	4/13	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	6
Turnovers	3 (edge)	4

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

26/35, 317 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

11.1 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

24/40, 300 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.0 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

14 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

19 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

-15.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

9/14 for 138 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

5/7 for 110 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 45	11	55	3:29	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 16	6	13	2:44	Fumble
3	LAC	CIN 29	4	14	2:19	Turnover on downs
4	CIN	CIN 12	6	25	1:59	Interception
5	LAC	LAC 27	6	73	2:55	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 28	5	4	1:52	Punt
7	LAC	CIN 42	4	3	1:03	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 20	4	-5	2:02	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 42	4	60	1:25	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	8	85	2:33	Touchdown
11	LAC	LAC 21	8	43	3:30	Fumble
12	CIN	LAC 19	4	14	1:29	Touchdown
13	LAC	LAC 27	7	9	1:21	Interception
14	CIN	CIN 12	6	34	1:19	End of half
15	CIN	CIN 25	11	55	5:07	Turnover on downs
16	LAC	LAC 25	3	21	0:53	Fumble
17	CIN	LAC 32	6	32	1:50	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	8	-1	3:46	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 32	5	7	1:43	Punt
20	LAC	LAC 15	4	-3	1:03	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 43	4	18	1:55	Defensive touchdown
22	CIN	CIN 25	5	-10	0:51	Punt
23	LAC	LAC 47	5	53	2:03	Touchdown
24	CIN	CIN 25	8	50	2:49	Interception
25	LAC	LAC 20	5	23	1:10	Punt
26	CIN	CIN 21	6	19	1:51	Turnover on downs
27	LAC	CIN 40	7	15	3:49	Turnover on downs
28	CIN	CIN 25	3	15	1:10	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	26/35	317	3	1	4	11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	14	59	4.2	1	-0.6
Justin Jackson	6	15	2.5	0	0.3
Justin Herbert	1	6	6.0	0	0.6
Jalen Guyton	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	5	7	110	0	20%	5.9
Jalen Guyton	4	4	90	1	11%	7.2
Austin Ekeler	5	5	45	0	14%	-8.9
Keenan Allen	5	8	34	2	23%	7.9
Jared Cook	3	4	29	0	11%	-0.2
Justin Jackson	2	2	6	0	6%	-0.6
Donald Parham	2	4	3	0	11%	-4.3
Josh Palmer	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Drue Tranquill	6	4	1.0	0	1
Kyzir White	6	3	0.0	0	0
Derwin James	3	4	0.5	0	0
Nasir Adderley	2	5	0.5	0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	3	2	0.0	0	0
Chris Rumph	2	3	1.0	0	0
Chris Harris	4	0	0.0	1	1
Justin Jones	2	1	1.0	0	0
Michael Davis	2	0	0.0	1	3
Uchenna Nwosu	2	0	2.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	24/40	300	1	2	6	-6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	19	54	2.8	1	-15.9
Samaje Perine	5	36	7.2	0	-0.9
Joe Burrow	1	6	6.0	1	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	9	14	138	1	37%	8.6
Tyler Boyd	5	7	85	0	18%	6.3
Ja'Marr Chase	5	8	52	0	21%	1.6
C.J. Uzomah	3	6	20	0	16%	-6.0
Samaje Perine	2	2	5	0	5%	-0.9
Joe Mixon	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Germaine Pratt	3	6	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	6	3	0.0	0	1
Joe Bachie	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	4	2	0.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	1	4	0.5	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	4	0.5	0	0
Vonn Bell	1	4	0.5	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	1	3	1.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	0	0.0	1	2
Tre Flowers	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -2.5
Closing total: 49.5
LAC moneyline: +127
CIN moneyline: -141

Bengals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 63 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: LAC 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs Zac Taylor