2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Ford Field

Minnesota Vikings

Detroit LionsWinner

MIN -7 upsetO 47.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, DET +74% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04MIN — DET DET ball · 4th & 2MIN 74%

(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04DET +74% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:08MIN +27% win prob(4:08) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 21 for -7 yards (48-B.Lynch). FUMBLES (48-B.Lynch) [79-K.Willekes], RECOVERED by MIN-48-B.Lynch at DET 19.
Q4 · 8:41MIN +21% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN 31. 27-C.Dantzler to MIN 31 for no gain (88-T.Hockenson).
Q4 · 12:02DET +12% win prob(12:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-53-C.Harris, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Lions
Offensive plays	73	69
Total yards	427 (edge)	372
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.07
Success rate	48% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	63%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.33
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	29 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

30/40, 340 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.4 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

25/41, 296 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

3.7 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

22 att, 90 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

17 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

11/14 for 182 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

10/12 for 86 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 22	8	32	2:59	Punt
2	DET	DET 20	6	21	2:21	Turnover on downs
3	MIN	DET 41	5	18	2:51	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 25	5	-5	1:39	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 34	10	53	4:11	Turnover on downs
6	DET	DET 31	7	55	2:09	Touchdown
7	MIN	MIN 48	6	14	2:42	Fumble
8	DET	DET 44	4	56	1:23	Touchdown
9	MIN	MIN 25	6	16	2:39	Punt
10	DET	DET 10	13	72	5:33	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 25	8	30	1:01	Turnover on downs
12	DET	DET 45	5	37	0:26	Turnover on downs
13	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
14	DET	DET 25	5	2	0:47	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 28	11	70	4:47	Turnover on downs
16	DET	DET 25	5	-10	1:37	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 33	6	67	1:36	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	9	27	4:17	Turnover on downs
19	MIN	MIN 25	12	80	4:59	Touchdown
20	DET	DET 25	8	37	3:23	Interception
21	MIN	MIN 31	5	28	3:02	Punt
22	DET	DET 19	4	0	1:31	Fumble
23	MIN	DET 19	7	19	2:11	Touchdown
24	DET	DET 25	15	80	1:50	Touchdown

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	30/40	340	2	0	3	4.4
Justin Jefferson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alexander Mattison	22	90	4.1	1	1.2
Kirk Cousins	2	6	3.0	0	0.6
Justin Jefferson	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Kene Nwangwu	2	0	0.0	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	11	14	182	1	34%	10.8
Tyler Conklin	7	9	56	0	22%	1.6
K.J. Osborn	4	7	47	1	17%	4.8
Alexander Mattison	3	3	34	0	7%	1.6
C.J. Ham	1	1	19	0	2%	1.9
Kene Nwangwu	2	3	4	0	7%	-2.4
Adam Thielen	1	2	0	0	5%	-2.7
Dede Westbrook	1	2	-2	0	5%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Vigil	8	6	0.0	0
Blake Lynch	6	3	2.0	0
Bashaud Breeland	5	3	0.0	1
Xavier Woods	2	5	0.0	0
Troy Dye	1	4	0.0	0
Harrison Smith	3	1	0.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	3	0	0.0	0
Michael Pierce	2	0	0.0	0
Kris Boyd	1	1	0.0	0
Dan Chisena	1	1	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	25/41	296	3	1	3	3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	17	71	4.2	-2.6
Jermar Jefferson	5	18	3.6	-1.1
Godwin Igwebuike	2	8	4.0	-0.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	1	2	2.0	-0.6
Jared Goff	2	1	0.5	-4.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	10	12	86	1	32%	8.2
Josh Reynolds	4	7	69	0	18%	3.5
T.J. Hockenson	4	8	49	1	21%	-1.7
Kalif Raymond	2	2	33	0	5%	0.9
Brock Wright	2	3	28	1	8%	2.0
Godwin Igwebuike	1	2	13	0	5%	-0.3
Jamaal Williams	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
KhaDarel Hodge	1	1	9	0	3%	0.5
Jermar Jefferson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Jason Cabinda	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tracy Walker III	7	4	0.0	0
Josh Woods	6	2	0.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	7	0	0.0	0
Jerry Jacobs	7	0	0.0	0
Dean Marlowe	5	0	0.0	0
Alex Anzalone	4	1	0.0	2
Will Harris	2	1	0.0	1
Levi Onwuzurike	1	2	0.0	0
Julian Okwara	1	1	1.0	0
Derrick Barnes	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -7
Closing total: 47.5
MIN moneyline: -296
DET moneyline: +255

Vikings closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 56 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: MIN 7 days · DET 10 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.