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Detroit Lions 29, Vikings 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 4th and 2, on A.St. — 74.4 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 4th and 2
A.St.
Lions
(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
74.4
Dome
Vikings closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Lions +74.4% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cameron DantzlerVikingsQ4 8:41(8:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN 31. 27-C.Dantzler to MIN 31 for no gain (88-T.Hockenson).
21.4pts
Jared GoffVikingsQ4 4:08(4:08) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 21 for -7 yards (48-B.Lynch). FUMBLES (48-B.Lynch) [79-K.Willekes], RECOVERED by MIN-48-B.Lynch at DET 19.
26.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Lions at 2 of 11 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Vikings at 5 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Vikings182 of 195 plays carry both curves
(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +74.4 for LionsExpected points +4.32 for LionsThe model had Lions 10 points higher than the market did.play 194
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04DET +74% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:08MIN +27% win prob(4:08) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 21 for -7 yards (48-B.Lynch). FUMBLES (48-B.Lynch) [79-K.Willekes], RECOVERED by MIN-48-B.Lynch at DET 19.
4th · 8:41MIN +21% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN 31. 27-C.Dantzler to MIN 31 for no gain (88-T.Hockenson).
4th · 12:02DET +12% win prob(12:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-53-C.Harris, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
2nd · 11:16MIN +11% win prob(11:16) 8-K.Cousins sacked at DET 40 for -7 yards (53-C.Harris). FUMBLES (53-C.Harris) [53-C.Harris], RECOVERED by DET-99-J.Okwara at DET 38. 99-J.Okwara to DET 44 for 6 yards (75-B.O'Neill, 56-G.Bradbury).
4th · 1:54DET +11% win prob(1:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:04 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:54Greg Joseph·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+33–0
1st1:03Greg Joseph·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+36–0
2nd13:54T.J. Hockenson·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+76–7
2nd9:51Brock Wright·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+76–14
2nd1:37Riley Patterson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+36–17
2nd0:10Riley Patterson·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+36–20
3rd9:30Greg Joseph·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+39–20
3rd6:20Alexander Mattison·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+615–20
3rd2:01Riley Patterson·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+315–23
4th0:04Amon-Ra St. Brown·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+627–29
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Vikings7–1Lions
427Total yards372
5.8Yards per play5.4
48%Success rate46%
46%Third-down rate18%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
29First downs21
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Vikings: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.07Lions: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Vikings: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Vikings: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.33Lions: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 73 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Lions’s 69 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Lions 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Lions17.4%
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 17.4%, 6.8 points above their season mean of 10.6% and 1.1 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+64% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:04 · Lions · 4th & 2 at MIN 11 · gained 11 · +4.32 EP · +64.0% win probability
180 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 77 yards from the DET 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
42%
Yards
798
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1665%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1786%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.5435%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.4153%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3757%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.8550%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Lions 46
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 41
Vikings3Lions0
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Lions 19
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 28
Vikings6Lions0
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Lions 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 40
2nd quarter56 plays
Vikings6Lions6
Vikings6Lions7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 48 to the Vikings 9
Offense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Lions 32
Vikings6Lions13
Vikings6Lions14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Vikings 23
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 41
Vikings6Lions17
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Vikings 13
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 42
Vikings6Lions20
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Vikings 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 27
Vikings9Lions20
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Lions 12
Punt5 plays
Vikings15Lions20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Lions 8
Vikings15Lions23
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 31
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 41
4th quarter56 plays
Vikings21Lions23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Lions 5
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 38
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 31 to midfield
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 28
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Vikings27Lions23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Vikings27Lions29
Touchdown18 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
