2021 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 6, 2021 · New Era Field

New England PatriotsWinner

Buffalo Bills

BUF -3 upsetU 40 ✓27 mph windBills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 14–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, NE +26% win probability on one snap. Played in 27 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:00NE — BUF BUF ball · 4th & 14NE 63%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:00NE +26% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).
Q1 · 5:28BUF +18% win prob(5:28) 37-D.Harris left tackle for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:45BUF +17% win prob(3:45) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left end to NE 25 for 17 yards (9-M.Judon). NE-9-M.Judon was injured during the play. M.Judon walks off.
Q1 · 2:19BUF +16% win prob(2:19) 3-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 1-N.Harry MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BUF-33-S.Neal at NE 14.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	48	57
Total yards	251 (edge)	230
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.19
Success rate	40% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	6%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	2/11	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	12	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/30, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.1 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

10 att, 111 yds, 1 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

24 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

4/7 for 51 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

2/4 for 30 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	6	2:14	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 48	4	3	1:30	Punt
3	NE	NE 20	4	5	2:07	Punt
4	BUF	NE 40	4	6	2:14	Fumble
5	NE	NE 31	4	71	1:37	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	7	13	3:11	Punt
7	BUF	NE 14	2	14	0:05	Touchdown
8	NE	NE 25	10	52	5:34	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	BUF 25	11	31	6:16	Punt
10	NE	NE 16	4	4	2:10	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 34	4	7	1:14	Punt
12	NE	NE 25	5	25	1:48	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 25	6	16	1:20	Punt
14	NE	NE 20	6	19	4:25	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 37	8	31	2:40	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 25	15	59	8:34	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 36	12	42	5:37	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 23	4	6	1:37	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 20	11	67	3:52	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 19	4	4	1:55	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 71 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	2/3	19	0	0	0	0.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	10	111	11.1	1	5.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	24	78	3.3	0	-5.1
Brandon Bolden	4	28	7.0	0	1.2
Nelson Agholor	1	6	6.0	0	0.0
Kendrick Bourne	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Jonnu Smith	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8
Mac Jones	5	-3	-0.6	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jonnu Smith	1	1	12	33%	0.9
Brandon Bolden	1	1	7	33%	-0.3
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	33%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Davon Godchaux	5	4	0.0	0
Dont'a Hightower	4	3	0.0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	5	0.0	0
Myles Bryant	3	2	0.0	1
Lawrence Guy	3	1	0.0	0
Matt Judon	3	0	1.0	0
Devin McCourty	2	0	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	2	0	0.0	2
Daniel Ekuale	1	1	1.0	0
Cody Davis	1	0	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/30	145	1	0	2	-7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	6	39	6.5	-0.7
Devin Singletary	10	36	3.6	-1.6
Zack Moss	8	21	2.6	-1.4
Matt Breida	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	4	7	51	0	23%	0.7
Gabe Davis	2	4	30	1	13%	-0.1
Emmanuel Sanders	3	6	22	0	20%	-2.3
Dawson Knox	2	6	14	0	20%	-2.8
Zack Moss	2	3	12	0	10%	0.9
Cole Beasley	1	3	11	0	10%	-1.8
Matt Breida	1	1	5	0	3%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jordan Poyer	4	3	0
Harrison Phillips	3	3	0
Tyrel Dodson	4	1	0
Tremaine Edmunds	1	4	0
Dane Jackson	4	1	1
Matt Milano	2	2	0
Ed Oliver	3	0	0
Levi Wallace	1	2	0
Micah Hyde	3	0	0
Eli Ankou	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3
Closing total: 40
NE moneyline: +132
BUF moneyline: -146

Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 24 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 27 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: NE 8 days · BUF 11 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 27 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.