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2021 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 6, 2021 · New Era Field
14
10
New England Patriots 14–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, NE +26% win probability on one snap. Played in 27 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 48 | 57 |
| Total yards | 251 (edge) | 230 |
| Yards per play | 5.2 (edge) | 4.0 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.01 (edge) | -0.19 |
| Success rate | 40% (edge) | 35% |
| Dropback rate | 6% | 63% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 (edge) | -0.41 |
| Third downs | 2/11 | 4/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 14 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
15/30, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-7.1 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | NE 25 | 5 | 6 | 2:14 | Punt | |
| 2 | BUF | BUF 48 | 4 | 3 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 3 | NE | NE 20 | 4 | 5 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 4 | BUF | NE 40 | 4 | 6 | 2:14 | Fumble | |
| 5 | NE | NE 31 | 4 | 71 | 1:37 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | BUF | BUF 25 | 7 | 13 | 3:11 | Punt | |
| 7 | BUF | NE 14 | 2 | 14 | 0:05 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | NE | NE 25 | 10 | 52 | 5:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 25 | 11 | 31 | 6:16 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | NE 16 | 4 | 4 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 34 | 4 | 7 | 1:14 | Punt | |
| 12 | NE | NE 25 | 5 | 25 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 25 | 6 | 16 | 1:20 | Punt | |
| 14 | NE | NE 20 | 6 | 19 | 4:25 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 37 | 8 | 31 | 2:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | NE | NE 25 | 15 | 59 | 8:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 36 | 12 | 42 | 5:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | NE | NE 23 | 4 | 6 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 20 | 11 | 67 | 3:52 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | NE | NE 19 | 4 | 4 | 1:55 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 71 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 10 | 111 | 11.1 | 1 | 5.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 24 | 78 | 3.3 | 0 | -5.1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 33% | 0.9 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 33% | -0.3 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davon Godchaux | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/30 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 24 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 27 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| -0.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Lawrence Guy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 23% | 0.7 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 13% | -0.1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 20% | -2.3 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 20% | -2.8 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | 0.9 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | -1.8 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | 1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Milano | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Ankou | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
