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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:10 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 6, 2021 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 13
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 14, on Josh Allen — 25.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 14–10. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Patriots +25.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 28.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 14
Josh Allen
Patriots
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).
25.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Bills at 3 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Damien Harris's 64-yard rushing touchdown with 5:28 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Damien Harris64-yd TD run64-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+88–05 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 48 snaps at a 6% dropback rate against Bills’s 57 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Bills 4.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's pass rate over expected, −56.7 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 13 — 42.6 points clear of the next team along.
47 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points. · −3.0σ from their own normal
NE's early-down pass rate, 5.7%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 13 — 23.4 points clear of the next team along.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.8 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -64 pts to 38 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-56.7 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −50.5 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−3.00× that swing) · 47 snaps
Bills-2.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.3 vs their 4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 96%
Tendencies room →Patriots5.7%off script — ran early · −44.5 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (−2.49× that swing) · 35 early downs
Bills53.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 60.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots20.0%right on their number · −10.0 vs their 30.0%, and they swing ±31.1 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.5%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 34%
Tendencies room →Patriots13.9%right on their number · +0.0 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bills—Only 3 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 15.5%.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -56.7 pts, 50.5 points below their season mean of -6.2 pts and 3.0 times their own 16.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
15/30, 145 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-7.1 expected points added · -8.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Damien Harris banked 12.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 17.1 | +12.4 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 10 car, 111 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 11.7 | −7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/30, 145 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 39 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 11.0 | +1.0 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −3.4 | 95% | 86% | 23% | 35% | 4/7, 51 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −4.5 | 63% | 67% | 0% | — | 24 car, 78 yd |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zack MossRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −3.6 | 41% | 39% | 10% | 4% | 8 car, 21 yd · 2/3, 12 yd |
| Emmanuel SandersWR · Featured Receiver | 5.2 | −3.6 | 79% | 75% | 20% | 18% | 3/6, 22 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 3.6 | −1.2 | 48% | 39% | 0% | — | 10 car, 36 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Featured Receiver | 3.4 | −6.7 | 97% | 89% | 20% | 21% | 2/6, 14 yd |
| Cole BeasleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.4 | 69% | 75% | 10% | 4% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Alpha Receiver | 2.1 | −0.3 | 76% | 100% | 33% | 67% | 1 car, -1 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 1.8 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Alpha Receiver | 0.6 | −1.5 | 49% | 100% | 33% | 53% | 1 car, 6 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 0.5 | −0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 2/3, 19 yd · 5 car, -3 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.3 | 29% | 67% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| N'Keal HarryTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 49% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Matt SlaterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (41-M.Bryant).
Q4 2:00 · Bills · 4th & 14 at NE 18 · gained nothing · -2.71 EP · −26.9% win probability
137 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 150 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 69 yards from the NE 31 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots6
Bills0Patriots8Bills0Patriots8Bills6Patriots8Bills7Patriots11Bills7Patriots11Bills10Patriots14Bills10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 10 | 111 | 11.1 | 1 | +5.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 24 | 78 | 3.3 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 33% | +0.9 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 33% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davon Godchaux | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/30 | 145 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_13_NE_BUF
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 24 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 28.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Mac Jones | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Lawrence Guy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Judon | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Daniel Ekuale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |
| 39 |
| 6.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Zack Moss | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 23% | +0.7 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 13% | −0.1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 20% | −2.3 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 20% | −2.8 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | +0.9 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −1.8 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Milano | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Oliver | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Wallace | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Ankou | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
