For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York9
BY 11final margin
DolphinsMiami20
New York Giants 9 at Miami Dolphins 20. Final.
Dolphins -6.5 ✓U 40 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 13
Miami Dolphins 20, Giants 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:31, 2nd and 5, on Mack Hollins — 8.8 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:31 · 2nd and 5
Mack Hollins
Dolphins
(:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Miami Dolphins 20–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:31, Dolphins +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tua TagovailoaGiantsQ1 1:31(1:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 2 for -6 yards (95-Q.Roche). MIA-32-P.Laird was injured during the play. He is Out.
7.5pts
Evan EngramGiantsQ2 6:19(6:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 88-E.Engram to NYG 42 for 16 yards (27-J.Coleman).
6.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 2 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Giants169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.8 for DolphinsExpected points +2.27 for DolphinsThe model had Giants 6 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:31MIA +9% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:31NYG +7% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 2 for -6 yards (95-Q.Roche). MIA-32-P.Laird was injured during the play. He is Out.
2nd · 6:19MIA +6% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 88-E.Engram to NYG 42 for 16 yards (27-J.Coleman).
2nd · 9:17MIA +5% win prob(9:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at NYG 34 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
2nd · 4:18MIA +5% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at MIA 19 for 8 yards (95-Q.Roche; 33-A.Robinson).
1st · 2:52NYG +5% win prob(2:52) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA 3. 25-X.Howard to MIA 3 for no gain (86-D.Slayton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mack Hollins's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:31 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:17Graham Gano·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
2nd7:12Jason Sanders·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+33–3
2nd0:31Mack Hollins·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+73–10
3rd10:33Graham Gano·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+36–10
4th11:13Isaiah Ford·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+76–17
4th5:04Graham Gano·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+39–17
4th1:16Jason Sanders·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+39–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryDolphins
Giants1–8Dolphins
250Total yards298
4.0Yards per play4.4
32%Success rate43%
38%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays2
16First downs18
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Giants: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.03Dolphins: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Giants: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Giants: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.25Dolphins: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 62 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 67 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Giants 1, Dolphins 2.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Dolphins17.8%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NYG's early-down pass rate, 68.9% against a season mean of 57.7% — and NYG swings 14.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Glennon pass+8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 88-E.Engram to NYG 34 for 18 yards (27-J.Coleman; 8-J.Holland).
Q1 4:52 · Giants · 3rd & 11 at NYG 16 · gained 18 · +2.71 EP · +8.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 89 yards from the MIA 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
37%
Yards
547
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0864%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.0268%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.1780%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1771%
Giants3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Dolphins 47
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 40
Intercepted7 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Dolphins 48
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Dolphins 8
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Giants3Dolphins0
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 21
Giants3Dolphins3
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Giants 30
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 48
Giants3Dolphins9
Giants3Dolphins10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Giants 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
Giants6Dolphins10
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Dolphins 16
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 26
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Dolphins 46
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 39
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 27
4th quarter53 plays
Punt1 play
Giants6Dolphins16
Giants6Dolphins17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 39 to the Giants 2
Punt5 plays
No good4 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 34
Giants9Dolphins17
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Dolphins 33
Giants9Dolphins20
Field goal15 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Giants 25
No good8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Dolphins 38
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
