For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:10 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 13
It turned at Q2 9:26, 4th and 1, on Ryan Griffin — 11.7 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 33–18. Biggest swing: Q2 9:26, Jets +11.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:26 · 4th and 1
Ryan Griffin
Jets
(9:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 86-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Eagles at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Jets at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Jets at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(9:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 86-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kenneth Gainwell's 18-yard rushing touchdown with 4:36 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Elijah Moore3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Zach Wilson · kick no good, wide left+60–610 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryJets
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 68 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Jets’s 56 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Jets 3.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.2 pts in week 12 against +4.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-12.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 68 snaps
Jets4.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 0.3 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 92%
Tendencies room →Eagles35.2%inside their normal wobble · −14.8 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 54 early downs
Jets62.8%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 59.1%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Eagles33.3%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 31%
Tendencies room →Eagles10.0%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets14.3%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PHI's early-down pass rate, 35.2% against a season mean of 50.0% — and PHI swings 16.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
20/25, 242 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
14.2 expected points added · +21.2% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
23/38, 226 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
1.0 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Receiving · PHI
6/6 for 105 yds, 2 TD
27% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dallas Goedert banked 18.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 28.5 | +18.4 | 96% | 93% | 27% | 33% | 6/6, 105 yd, 2 TD |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | −5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/38, 226 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 0 yd, 1 TD |
| Elijah MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.6 | −5.4 | 86% | 88% | 33% | 65% | 1 car, 9 yd · 6/12, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Committee Back | 19.7 | +6.0 | 38% | 46% | 23% | 1% | 12 car, 54 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 33 yd |
| Gardner MinshewQB · Starter QB | 18.8 | +8.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/25, 242 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 11 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 17.2 | +0.1 | 58% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 24 car, 120 yd · 3/3, 22 yd |
| Tevin ColemanRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.7 | −3.9 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 0% | 11 car, 58 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | −0.4 | 78% | 83% | 17% | 17% | 4/6, 62 yd |
| Ryan GriffinTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +3.9 | 54% | 41% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +4.2 | 77% | 82% | 14% | 30% | 3/3, 60 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 3.5 | −2.9 | 47% | 56% | 11% | 5% | 1 car, 1 yd · 2/4, 14 yd |
| Corey DavisWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.1 | 42% | 32% | 8% | 5% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −3.6 | 62% | 86% | 18% | 34% | 2/4, 15 yd |
| Austin WalterRB | 3.1 | 0.0 | 14% | 17% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | 32% | 39% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.4 | 68% | 71% | 5% | 3% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Denzel MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.1 | 36% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Kenny YeboahTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 24% | 29% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jeff SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Boston ScottRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
4-J.Elliott kicks 65 yards from PHI 35 to NYJ 0. 10-B.Berrios to PHI 21 for 79 yards (22-M.Epps).
Q1 15:00 · Jets · Kickoff at PHI 35 · gained nothing · +3.45 EP · +11.4% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 94 yards from the PHI 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Jets6Eagles6Jets6Eagles7Jets6Eagles7Jets12Eagles13Jets12Eagles14Jets12Eagles14Jets18Eagles20Jets18Eagles21Jets18Eagles24Jets18Eagles27Jets18Eagles30Jets18Eagles33Jets18Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 20/25 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 24 | 120 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 | +1.9 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 6 | 105 | 2 | 27% | +10.5 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 | 14% | +7.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Darius Slay |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 23/38 | 226 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_13_PHI_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 44; the game landed 51 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 23% | +0.9 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 14% | +0.8 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 18% | −2.2 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Avonte Maddox | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Genard Avery | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 58 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.2 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Austin Walter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 12 | 77 | 1 | 33% | +1.9 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 17% | +1.5 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 11% | +0.7 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 6% | +3.1 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 11% | −2.8 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Austin Walter | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | −0.1 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 7 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Mosley | 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Riley | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Hall | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Javelin Guidry | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Folorunso Fatukasi | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarrad Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
