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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 23 at Seattle Seahawks 30. Final.
49ers -3 upsetO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 13
Seattle Seahawks 30, 49ers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:22, 4th and 6, on Travis Homer — 18.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:22 · 4th and 6
Travis Homer
Seahawks
(13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 13:22, Seahawks +18.5% win probability on one snap.
18.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Quandre DiggsSeahawksQ3 4:47(4:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA 43. 6-Q.Diggs pushed ob at SF 28 for 29 yards (60-D.Brunskill).
17.3pts
Tyler LockettSeahawksQ3 2:34(2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa].
16.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 3 giveaways, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per dropback, against Seahawks at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on 49ers165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.5 for SeahawksExpected points +8.04 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 12 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:22SEA +19% win prob(13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:47SF +17% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA 43. 6-Q.Diggs pushed ob at SF 28 for 29 yards (60-D.Brunskill).
3rd · 2:34SEA +16% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa].
4th · 0:22SF +14% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Sherfield (8-C.Dunlap).
4th · 0:27SF +14% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 81-T.Sherfield (23-S.Jones).
3rd · 15:00SF +13% win prob5-J.Myers kicks 55 yards from SEA 35 to SF 10. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 22 for 12 yards (44-N.Bellore). FUMBLES (44-N.Bellore), RECOVERED by SEA-25-T.Homer at SF 26.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Lockett's 12-yard touchdown catch with 2:34 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd2:00George Kittle·48-yd TD catch48-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo · kick no good, hit right upright+623–14
2nd0:18D'Wayne Eskridge·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+723–21
3rd10:33Carlos Dunlap·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+223–23
3rd2:34Tyler Lockett·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+723–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categorySeahawks
49ers5–4Seahawks
366Total yards328
6.7Yards per play4.9
47%Success rate39%
30%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays6
18First downs17
1Sacks taken4
4Turnovers3
The read
49ers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.0049ers: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.06Seahawks: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.0649ers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.19Seahawks: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.17Seahawks: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 55 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 67 at 64%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Seahawks 7.
Note49ers outgained Seahawks 366-328 but lost the turnover battle 4-3. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Seahawks9.7%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SEA's pass rate over expected, 2.7 pts against a season mean of -2.0 pts — and SEA swings 6.2 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%58 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillG · Every snap100%58 snaps
66Tom ComptonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%58 snaps
50Alex MackC · Every snap100%58 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
81Trent SherfieldWR · Full-time98%57 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time93%54 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time93%54 snaps
25Elijah MitchellRB · Full-time84%49 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation55%32 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Heavy rotation50%29 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational12%7 snaps
17Travis BenjaminWR · Situational5%3 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational3%2 snaps
22Jeffery WilsonRB · Situational3%2 snaps
23Jamycal HastyRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Maurice HurstDTFred WarnerMLBMarcell HarrisOLBDre GreenlawOLBColton McKivitzTDeebo SamuelWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Travis Homer+23% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:22 · Seahawks · 4th & 6 at SEA 27 · gained 73 · +8.04 EP · +23.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 95 yards from the SF 2 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
692
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1868%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2674%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.0938%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1060%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end, one receiver, one punter, four linebackers, one long snapper and one backDefense on the fieldTwo linebackers and three backs
49ers0Seahawks6
49ers0Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 27
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 16
Fumble lost2 plays
49ers6Seahawks7
49ers7Seahawks7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
No good5 plays
49ers13Seahawks7
49ers14Seahawks7
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended6 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt1 play
49ers17Seahawks7
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the Seahawks 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
49ers17Seahawks13
49ers17Seahawks14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the 49ers 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
49ers23Seahawks14
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Seahawks 48
49ers23Seahawks20
49ers23Seahawks21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the 49ers 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 5
49ers23Seahawks23
Drive ended3 plays, from the 49ers 3 to the 49ers 5
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the 49ers 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
49ers23Seahawks29
49ers23Seahawks30
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 12
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Seahawks 40
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 23
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the 49ers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the Seahawks 3
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
