2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Lumen Field

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SF -3 upsetO 44.5 ✓49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 13:22, SEA +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:22SF — SEA SEA ball · 4th & 6SF 66%

(13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:22SEA +19% win prob(13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:47SF +17% win prob(4:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA 43. 6-Q.Diggs pushed ob at SF 28 for 29 yards (60-D.Brunskill).
Q3 · 2:34SEA +16% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa].
Q4 · 0:22SF +14% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Sherfield (8-C.Dunlap).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Seahawks
Offensive plays	55	67
Total yards	366 (edge)	328
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	47% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	56%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	4	3 (edge)

49ers outgained Seahawks 366–328 but lost the turnover battle 4–3. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

20/30, 299 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

1.7 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

30/37, 231 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.1 expected points added · +14.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

22 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

10 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

9/12 for 181 yds, 2 TD

40% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

7/8 for 68 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 23	6	77	1:49	Touchdown
2	SF	SF 15	5	0	1:48	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 25	2	-5	0:49	Fumble
4	SF	SEA 24	2	24	0:07	Touchdown
5	SEA	SEA 25	5	7	1:44	Punt
6	SF	SF 23	1	0	0:10	Interception
7	SEA	SF 28	4	0	2:51	Turnover on downs
8	SF	SF 46	10	54	4:10	Touchdown
9	SEA	SEA 24	5	1	1:47	Punt
10	SF	SF 37	9	46	5:02	Turnover on downs
11	SEA	SEA 37	11	65	4:08	Touchdown
12	SF	SF 25	9	80	3:47	Touchdown
13	SEA	SEA 35	10	42	1:36	Touchdown
14	SF	SF 25	2	0	0:12	End of half
15	SF	—	1	0	0:07	Fumble
16	SEA	SF 26	6	21	2:59	Interception
17	SF	SF 3	3	-3	1:26	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	SEA 30	8	31	3:33	Punt
19	SF	SF 8	4	26	2:18	Interception
20	SEA	SF 28	6	28	2:09	Touchdown
21	SF	SF 30	5	9	2:09	Fumble
22	SEA	SEA 29	6	5	2:36	Punt
23	SF	SF 8	5	15	1:47	Punt
24	SEA	SEA 27	13	56	6:53	Fumble
25	SF	SF 2	12	115	3:45	Turnover on downs
26	SEA	SEA 3	1	0	0:18	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 115 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	20/30	299	2	2	1	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	22	66	3.0	1	-4.1
George Kittle	1	5	5.0	0	0.3
Jimmy Garoppolo	2	0	0.0	0	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	9	12	181	2	40%	8.6
Brandon Aiyuk	3	6	55	0	20%	2.2
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	21	0	10%	0.6
Elijah Mitchell	3	3	18	0	10%	-0.5
Trent Sherfield	2	5	16	0	17%	-8.5
Jauan Jennings	1	1	8	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	10	4	0.5	0	0
Dontae Johnson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	4	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Jones	4	0	0.0	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	1	3	0.0	0	0
K'Waun Williams	3	1	0.0	1	1
Jimmie Ward	2	1	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	1	2	1.0	0	0
Jordan Willis	1	2	1.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	2	0.0	0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	30/37	231	2	1	4	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Homer	3	80	26.7	1	10.7
Rashaad Penny	10	35	3.5	0	-3.7
Adrian Peterson	11	16	1.5	1	-3.0
Russell Wilson	3	15	5.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	7	8	68	1	22%	4.7
DK Metcalf	5	8	60	0	22%	2.6
D'Wayne Eskridge	3	3	35	1	8%	4.8
Rashaad Penny	1	1	27	0	3%	2.2
Freddie Swain	3	3	18	0	8%	0.9
Travis Homer	4	5	10	0	14%	-1.8
Gerald Everett	4	6	7	0	16%	-11.7
Will Dissly	2	2	7	0	5%	-0.4
Penny Hart	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	4	6	0	0
Bobby Wagner	6	3	1	1
Ryan Neal	1	4	0	0
Jamal Adams	2	2	0	0
Quandre Diggs	3	1	1	1
Poona Ford	1	2	0	0
D.J. Reed	1	2	0	2
Darrell Taylor	2	1	0	0
Sidney Jones	1	1	0	1
Ugochukwu Amadi	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3
Closing total: 44.5
SF moneyline: -138
SEA moneyline: +125

49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 53 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: SF 7 days · SEA 6 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.