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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 at Atlanta Falcons 17. Final.
Buccaneers -11 ✓U 51 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Falcons 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:27, 2nd and 9, on Marlon Davidson — 8.4 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:27 · 2nd and 9
Marlon Davidson
Falcons
(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 7-L.Fournette INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Davidson at TB 3. 90-M.Davidson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Buccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:27, Falcons +8.4% win probability on one snap.
8.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell GageBuccaneersQ3 13:08(13:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-R.Gage to TB 45 for 19 yards (29-P.Desir). FUMBLES (29-P.Desir), RECOVERED by TB-24-C.Davis at TB 37. 24-C.Davis to TB 37 for no gain (4-T.Sharpe).
5.1pts
Matt RyanBuccaneersQ3 7:04(7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 48 for -8 yards (93-N.Suh).
5.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 4 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers172 of 184 plays carry both curves
(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 7-L.Fournette INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Davidson at TB 3. 90-M.Davidson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.4 for FalconsExpected points +6.97 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 19 points higher than the market did.play 91
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:27TB +8% win prob(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 7-L.Fournette INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Davidson at TB 3. 90-M.Davidson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:04TB +5% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 48 for -8 yards (93-N.Suh).
3rd · 13:08TB +5% win prob(13:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-R.Gage to TB 45 for 19 yards (29-P.Desir). FUMBLES (29-P.Desir), RECOVERED by TB-24-C.Davis at TB 37. 24-C.Davis to TB 37 for no gain (4-T.Sharpe).
2nd · 13:38ATL +5% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at TB 26 for 29 yards (43-R.Cockrell).
3rd · 2:15ATL +5% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans to ATL 17 for 18 yards (6-D.Fowler).
3rd · 0:34ATL +5% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Brate's 3-yard touchdown catch with 4:30 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:00Leonard Fournette·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–0
3rd0:34Rob Gronkowski·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+727–17
4th1:53Ryan Succop·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+330–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Buccaneers6–2Falcons
426Total yards380
6.4Yards per play5.5
46%Success rate46%
62%Third-down rate59%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays6
24First downs20
0Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Buccaneers: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.05Falcons: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Buccaneers: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.09Falcons: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Buccaneers: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.02Falcons: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 67 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Falcons’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Falcons 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 2.0%, was the lowest of the 27 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.3% in week 1.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 12.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.9 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +22.0 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 13 — 8.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +15.7 pts in week 5.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 12.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 53.7% in week 12 against 73.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Falcons2.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−1.92× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.0%, 7.5 points below their season mean of 9.5% and 1.9 times their own 3.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%70 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%70 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%70 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%70 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time93%65 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time91%64 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time87%61 snaps
16Breshad PerrimanWR · Full-time84%59 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time83%58 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Situational19%13 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Situational13%9 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Situational10%7 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Situational9%6 snaps
10Scott MillerWR · Situational6%4 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational3%2 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 4
Steve McLendonNTKyle TraskQBJordan WhiteheadSSJaelon DardenWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Nick LeverettGBlaine GabbertQB
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%71 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%71 snaps
77Jalen MayfieldG · Every snap100%71 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap99%70 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time94%67 snaps
4Tajae SharpeWR · Heavy rotation76%54 snaps
14Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation75%53 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
28Mike DavisRB · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Rotational48%34 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Rotational37%26 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational30%21 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational23%16 snaps
30Qadree OllisonRB · Situational18%13 snaps
46Parker HesseTE · Situational17%12 snaps
66Colby GossettG · Situational4%3 snaps
69Jason SpriggsT · Situational1%1 snap
13Christian BlakeWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jonathan BullardDEJohn CominskyDTJosh AndrewsGMike PennelNTJames VaughtersOLBWayne GallmanRB
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 7-L.Fournette INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Davidson at TB 3. 90-M.Davidson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:27 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 9 at TB 8 · gained nothing · -6.97 EP · −17.2% win probability
170 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 87 yards from the TB 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
805
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.2781%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.3583%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.2560%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12-0.1233%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Buccaneers6Falcons0
Buccaneers7Falcons0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 3
Buccaneers7Falcons6
Buccaneers7Falcons7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Buccaneers13Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 3
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 43
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 22
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Buccaneers13Falcons10
Field goal17 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Buccaneers19Falcons10
Buccaneers20Falcons10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 27
Punt15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Buccaneers20Falcons16
Touchdown2 plays, from the Buccaneers 7 to the Buccaneers 8
Buccaneers20Falcons17
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 39
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 37 to the Buccaneers 43
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Buccaneers 40
Buccaneers26Falcons17
Buccaneers27Falcons17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 13 to the Falcons 11
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Falcons 48
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Buccaneers 43
Buccaneers30Falcons17
Field goal18 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Falcons 13
The period ended13 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Buccaneers 7
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
