2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

TB -11 ✓U 51 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 13.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:27, TB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:27TB — ATL TB ball · 2nd & 9TB 93%

(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 7-L.Fournette INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Davidson at TB 3. 90-M.Davidson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:27TB +8% win prob(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 7-L.Fournette INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Davidson at TB 3. 90-M.Davidson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:04TB +5% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TB 48 for -8 yards (93-N.Suh).
Q3 · 13:08TB +5% win prob(13:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-R.Gage to TB 45 for 19 yards (29-P.Desir). FUMBLES (29-P.Desir), RECOVERED by TB-24-C.Davis at TB 37. 24-C.Davis to TB 37 for no gain (4-T.Sharpe).
Q2 · 13:38ATL +5% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at TB 26 for 29 yards (43-R.Cockrell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Falcons
Offensive plays	67	69
Total yards	426 (edge)	380
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	-0.05
Success rate	46%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	10/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

38/51, 368 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

15.7 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

30/41, 297 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.7 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

13 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

13 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

15/17 for 143 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Russell GageWR

11/12 for 130 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	15	75	5:07	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 25	8	75	3:13	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 25	8	71	2:17	Touchdown
4	ATL	ATL 25	6	13	2:18	Punt
5	TB	TB 20	4	2	1:26	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 25	15	79	7:00	Turnover on downs
7	TB	TB 25	11	85	3:45	Touchdown
8	ATL	ATL 25	13	29	4:10	Punt
9	TB	TB 7	2	1	0:22	Defensive touchdown
10	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:22	End of half
11	ATL	ATL 25	5	35	2:00	Fumble
12	TB	TB 37	4	6	0:39	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 16	12	36	6:09	Punt
14	TB	TB 13	15	87	5:43	Touchdown
15	ATL	ATL 25	5	-3	2:04	Punt
16	TB	TB 31	6	21	1:57	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 16	8	51	4:03	Punt
18	TB	TB 9	13	78	5:36	Turnover on downs
19	ATL	ATL 28	10	65	1:49	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	38/51	368	4	1	0	15.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Leonard Fournette	13	44	3.4	-1.9
Chris Godwin	1	9	9.0	0.9
Giovani Bernard	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Ronald Jones	1	2	2.0	-0.6
Tom Brady	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	15	17	143	0	33%	8.7
Mike Evans	7	10	99	0	20%	7.0
Rob Gronkowski	4	8	58	2	16%	3.6
Leonard Fournette	7	8	48	1	16%	-1.3
Giovani Bernard	1	2	7	0	4%	-0.0
Tyler Johnson	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.1
Breshad Perriman	1	3	5	0	6%	-2.4
Cameron Brate	1	1	3	1	2%	0.8
Ronald Jones	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	7	3	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	5	4	0.0	1
Lavonte David	4	2	0.0	0
William Gholston	1	5	0.0	0
Andrew Adams	3	3	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	3	2	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	2	2	2.0	0
Pierre Desir	4	0	0.0	0
Ross Cockrell	2	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	2	1	0.0	3

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	30/41	297	0	0	5	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	13	78	6.0	0	1.0
Mike Davis	4	32	8.0	1	1.4
Qadree Ollison	2	7	3.5	0	-0.4
Matt Ryan	3	2	0.7	0	-0.2
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	2	2.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Russell Gage	11	12	130	30%	7.0
Kyle Pitts	4	7	48	18%	1.3
Olamide Zaccheaus	3	5	44	13%	2.3
Mike Davis	4	4	37	10%	0.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	5	18	13%	-2.2
Tajae Sharpe	3	5	10	13%	-1.7
Qadree Ollison	1	1	8	3%	1.0
Keith Smith	1	1	2	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	6	7	0
Deion Jones	6	2	2
Fabian Moreau	5	1	0
Darren Hall	4	1	0
Steven Means	1	3	0
Duron Harmon	2	1	0
A.J. Terrell	2	1	1
Avery Williams	1	2	0
Richie Grant	2	1	0
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -11
Closing total: 51
TB moneyline: -475
ATL moneyline: +387

Buccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 51; the game landed 47 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: TB 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Arthur Smith

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.