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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:08 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 13
It turned at Q4 7:03, 3rd and 4, on Nate Hobbs — 20.6 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:03 · 3rd and 4
Nate Hobbs
Raiders
(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs (98-M.Crosby) [92-S.Thomas] at LV 30. 39-N.Hobbs to LV 39 for 9 yards (87-J.Bates, 13-A.Humphries).
Washington Commanders 17–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:03, Raiders +20.6% win probability on one snap.
20.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Raiders at 2 of 8 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs (98-M.Crosby) [92-S.Thomas] at LV 30. 39-N.Hobbs to LV 39 for 9 yards (87-J.Bates, 13-A.Humphries).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brian Johnson's 48-yard field goal with 0:42 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Brian Johnson48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.CheesemanLead never changed again+317–157 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 60 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Raiders’s 57 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Raiders 3.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.6% in week 12 against 7.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-7.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 60 snaps
Raiders7.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 2.1 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 91%
Tendencies room →Commanders48.9%right on their number · −5.3 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 47 early downs
Raiders70.8%inside their normal wobble · +10.4 vs their 60.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Commanders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.2 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.5 vs their 26.5%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders7.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Raiders15.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.2 points below their season mean of 35.2% and 1.4 times their own 25.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
28/38, 249 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.6 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
23/30, 196 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
5.5 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Hunter Renfrow banked 3.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.0 | +1.6 | 85% | 79% | 25% | 0% | 13 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 9/9, 38 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.1 | −3.8 | 82% | 70% | 20% | 2% | 23 car, 88 yd · 5/6, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.2 | +3.2 | 92% | 91% | 28% | 21% | 9/10, 102 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 14.8 | −1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/30, 196 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 10 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.8 | +2.9 | 64% | 64% | 17% | 36% | 3/5, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Derek CarrQB · Starter QB | 12.4 | −6.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/38, 249 yd · 2 car, 24 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +0.3 | 51% | 55% | 17% | 19% | 4/5, 38 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +0.4 | 57% | 52% | 13% | 14% | 3/4, 42 yd |
| Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | −4.1 | 68% | 70% | 14% | 21% | 3/5, 30 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −2.4 | 93% | 85% | 17% | 26% | 3/5, 22 yd |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −5.3 | 86% | 84% | 14% | 27% | 3/5, 21 yd |
| Wendell SmallwoodRB | 4.5 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −3.3 | 85% | 79% | 8% | 17% | 1/3, 34 yd |
| DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +0.7 | 41% | 37% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Kenyan DrakeRB | 1.8 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 73% | 64% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Peyton BarberRB | 1.2 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −1.7 | 30% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, -1 yd · 1/1, -1 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sammis ReyesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right (23-W.Jackson).
Q4 0:02 · Raiders · 2nd & 3 at LV 43 · gained nothing · -0.29 EP · −28.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 75 yards from the WAS 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders6
Raiders0Commanders7Raiders0Commanders7Raiders3Commanders7Raiders6Commanders13Raiders6Commanders14Raiders6Commanders14Raiders12Commanders14Raiders15Commanders17Raiders15Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 23/30 | 196 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 5 | 48 | 1 | 17% | +3.8 |
| John Bates | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kendall Fuller | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 28/38 | 249 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_13_WAS_LV
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 32 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 17% | +2.5 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 20% | +1.6 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 17% | −3.2 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | −0.7 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| James Smith-Williams | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Deshazor Everett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaleke Hudson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Allen | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
| 52 |
| 4.0 |
| 1 |
| −1.1 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 9 | 10 | 102 | 0 | 28% | +5.0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 25% | −0.9 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 14% | −0.6 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 14% | −0.6 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Perryman | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hobbs | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Divine Deablo | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cory Littleton | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Solomon Thomas | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Facyson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnathan Abram | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Casey Hayward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
