2021 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 5, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

LV -1 upsetU 47.5 ✓DomeRaiders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 17–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:03, WAS +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:03WAS — LV WAS ball · 3rd & 4WAS 73%

(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs (98-M.Crosby) [92-S.Thomas] at LV 30. 39-N.Hobbs to LV 39 for 9 yards (87-J.Bates, 13-A.Humphries).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:03WAS +21% win prob(7:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs (98-M.Crosby) [92-S.Thomas] at LV 30. 39-N.Hobbs to LV 39 for 9 yards (87-J.Bates, 13-A.Humphries).
Q4 · 0:02WAS +19% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right (23-W.Jackson).
Q4 · 0:42LV +15% win prob(:42) 16-B.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q4 · 1:06LV +13% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 13-A.Humphries ran ob at LV 40 for 12 yards (29-C.Hayward).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Raiders
Offensive plays	60	57
Total yards	299	310 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	43%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.14 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	2/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	19	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

28/38, 249 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

23/30, 196 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.5 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

23 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

13 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

9/10 for 102 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Logan ThomasTE

3/5 for 48 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	11	75	5:21	Touchdown
2	LV	LV 24	8	24	3:25	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 10	6	29	3:08	Punt
4	LV	LV 18	4	7	0:59	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 24	7	20	3:07	Punt
6	LV	LV 9	11	43	6:14	Fumble
7	WAS	WAS 10	12	27	6:05	Punt
8	LV	LV 20	10	46	1:37	Turnover on downs
9	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:04	End of half
10	LV	LV 25	7	10	3:01	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 23	7	11	3:41	Punt
12	LV	LV 9	8	71	3:26	Turnover on downs
13	WAS	WAS 25	11	65	6:24	Touchdown
14	LV	LV 25	7	48	2:31	Touchdown
15	WAS	WAS 20	8	28	4:08	Interception
16	LV	LV 39	8	43	4:27	Turnover on downs
17	WAS	WAS 25	9	44	1:45	Turnover on downs
18	LV	LV 25	5	18	0:37	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	23/30	196	2	1	1	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Antonio Gibson	23	88	3.8	-1.6
Wendell Smallwood	1	13	13.0	-0.5
Taylor Heinicke	3	10	3.3	0.4
Jaret Patterson	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Curtis Samuel	2	-1	-0.5	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Logan Thomas	3	5	48	1	17%	3.8
John Bates	3	4	42	0	13%	2.7
Adam Humphries	4	5	38	0	17%	2.5
Antonio Gibson	5	6	23	1	20%	1.6
Terry McLaurin	3	5	22	0	17%	-3.2
Wendell Smallwood	2	2	12	0	7%	-0.7
DeAndre Carter	1	1	6	0	3%	1.0
Dyami Brown	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Curtis Samuel	1	1	-1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cole Holcomb	7	3	0.0	2
Kendall Fuller	8	0	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	5	1	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	3	2	0.0	1
James Smith-Williams	0	4	0.5	0
Deshazor Everett	2	2	0.0	0
Khaleke Hudson	1	2	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	2	1	0.0	1
Jonathan Allen	0	2	0.5	0
Daron Payne	2	0	0.0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	28/38	249	0	0	2	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	13	52	4.0	1	-1.1
Derek Carr	2	24	12.0	0	1.3
Kenyan Drake	1	0	0.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Renfrow	9	10	102	28%	5.0
Josh Jacobs	9	9	38	25%	-0.9
Foster Moreau	1	3	34	8%	0.9
Bryan Edwards	3	5	30	14%	-0.6
Zay Jones	3	5	21	14%	-0.6
DeSean Jackson	1	1	14	3%	1.7
Kenyan Drake	1	2	8	6%	-1.0
Peyton Barber	1	1	2	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Denzel Perryman	9	3	0	0
Nate Hobbs	4	5	1	1
Divine Deablo	5	3	0	0
Cory Littleton	2	3	0	0
Trevon Moehrig	3	1	0	1
Solomon Thomas	1	2	0	0
Brandon Facyson	2	1	0	0
Johnathan Abram	1	2	0	1
Maxx Crosby	2	1	0	1
Casey Hayward	2	1	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -1
Closing total: 47.5
WAS moneyline: +116
LV moneyline: -128

Raiders closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 32 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: WAS 6 days · LV 10 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Rich Bisaccia