2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -2.5 upsetO 41 ✓Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 29–21. Biggest swing: Q2 8:47, ATL +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 8:47ATL — CAR CAR ball · 3rd & 6CAR 63%

(8:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle intended for 20-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 3-M.Walker at ATL 34. 3-M.Walker for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 8:47ATL +27% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle intended for 20-A.Abdullah INTERCEPTED by 3-M.Walker at ATL 34. 3-M.Walker for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:45ATL +17% win prob(4:45) 1-C.Newton FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 49, RECOVERED by ATL-97-G.Jarrett at CAR 49.
Q3 · 3:27CAR +8% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 38 for 14 yards (7-S.Thompson) [53-B.Burns].
Q2 · 6:14CAR +8% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 28-M.Davis to CAR 32 for 20 yards (21-J.Chinn) [53-B.Burns].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Panthers
Offensive plays	63	62
Total yards	320	334 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	37%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	46%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Panthers outgained Falcons 334–320 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

19/28, 190 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.2 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

15/23, 178 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

16 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

10 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

6/10 for 84 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

7/12 for 84 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	5	9	2:22	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 35	10	65	4:19	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 25	13	75	5:16	Touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 28	5	7	1:41	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 11	7	22	3:55	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 3	10	66	3:52	Defensive touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 13	5	5	1:31	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 49	9	38	3:52	Turnover on downs
9	CAR	CAR 25	4	4	1:17	Interception
10	ATL	ATL 46	4	13	1:55	End of half
11	CAR	CAR 40	10	60	3:39	Touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 25	10	45	4:53	Turnover on downs
13	CAR	CAR 24	6	29	1:48	Fumble
14	ATL	CAR 49	11	59	5:23	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 25	10	28	4:22	Turnover on downs
16	ATL	CAR 48	6	18	3:45	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 25	7	19	1:16	Turnover on downs
18	ATL	ATL 44	1	1	0:05	Fumble
19	CAR	CAR 49	7	51	1:38	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 40	9	40	3:11	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	19/28	190	1	0	0	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	16	58	3.6	1	-0.3
Mike Davis	11	44	4.0	0	-0.5
Qadree Ollison	5	23	4.6	0	-3.8
Matt Ryan	4	3	0.8	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Russell Gage	4	6	64	0	22%	4.5
Kyle Pitts	5	6	61	0	22%	5.3
Mike Davis	5	6	42	0	22%	0.6
Lee Smith	1	1	12	0	4%	0.8
Tajae Sharpe	1	2	7	0	7%	-1.0
Hayden Hurst	1	1	3	1	4%	0.9
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	5	1	0	19%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	3	4	0.0	0	1
Deion Jones	5	1	0.0	0	0
A.J. Terrell	1	3	0.0	1	3
Darren Hall	4	0	0.0	0	1
Steven Means	3	1	0.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	2	0.0	0	0
Brandon Copeland	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Pennel	3	0	0.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	2	0	1.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	15/23	178	0	1	1	-3.5
P.J. Walker	6/12	75	1	1	0	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Newton	10	47	4.7	1	-2.4
Chuba Hubbard	10	33	3.3	1	-1.2
Ameer Abdullah	4	16	4.0	0	-0.5
P.J. Walker	2	-5	-2.5	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	6	10	84	0	29%	1.3
Robbie Chosen	7	12	84	1	34%	5.5
Brandon Zylstra	4	5	45	0	14%	0.1
Tommy Tremble	2	2	23	0	6%	2.3
Ameer Abdullah	2	4	17	0	11%	-9.1
Ian Thomas	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jeremy Chinn	8	5	0
Shaq Thompson	9	2	0
Jermaine Carter	3	4	0
Derrick Brown	4	1	0
DaQuan Jones	4	0	0
Juston Burris	1	2	0
C.J. Henderson	3	0	1
Morgan Fox	1	1	0
Marquis Haynes	1	1	0
Brian Burns	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -2.5
Closing total: 41
ATL moneyline: +123
CAR moneyline: -136

Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 50 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: ATL 7 days · CAR 14 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Matt Rhule

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.