2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -3 no coverO 44 ✓Browns closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:17, BAL +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:17BAL — CLE CLE ballCLE 92%

9-J.Tucker kicks onside 6 yards from BAL 35 to BAL 41. RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:17BAL +32% win prob9-J.Tucker kicks onside 6 yards from BAL 35 to BAL 41. RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark.
Q4 · 1:00BAL +18% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q4 · 1:11BAL +14% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 31 for -10 yards (90-J.Clowney).
Q2 · 5:32BAL +8% win prob(5:32) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Averett at BAL 40. 23-A.Averett pushed ob at CLE 39 for 21 yards (81-A.Hooper).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Browns
Offensive plays	69	59
Total yards	389 (edge)	292
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.10	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	75%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	-0.19 (edge)
Third downs	1/12	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Ravens outgained Browns 389–292 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

27/38, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-4.8 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

22/32, 190 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.9 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Devonta FreemanRB

13 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

17 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

11/11 for 115 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Rashod BatemanWR

7/8 for 103 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 23	5	7	1:29	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 32	5	17	2:11	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 15	7	19	3:50	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 17	5	5	1:54	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 34	9	66	4:58	Touchdown
6	BAL	BAL 25	5	10	1:18	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 23	11	75	6:05	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 22	5	3	2:02	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 32	2	12	0:49	Interception
10	BAL	CLE 39	4	7	1:54	Turnover on downs
11	CLE	CLE 40	6	16	1:47	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 9	4	6	0:54	Defensive touchdown
13	BAL	BAL 23	8	53	0:47	Turnover on downs
14	CLE	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
15	BAL	BAL 25	8	62	2:57	Fumble
16	CLE	CLE 28	11	36	5:18	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 17	9	61	4:40	Turnover on downs
18	CLE	CLE 25	12	52	5:35	Turnover on downs
19	BAL	BAL 31	8	69	2:34	Touchdown
20	CLE	CLE 31	5	6	1:36	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 22	4	0	0:29	Punt
22	CLE	BAL 46	4	3	1:25	Punt
23	BAL	BAL 10	15	90	4:09	Touchdown
24	CLE	BAL 41	5	6	0:21	Turnover on downs
25	CLE	BAL 47	2	0	0:56	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	27/38	270	1	0	3	-4.8
Lamar Jackson	4/4	17	0	0	1	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devonta Freeman	13	64	4.9	0	-1.9
Tyler Huntley	6	45	7.5	0	2.6
Lamar Jackson	2	5	2.5	0	-2.5
Devin Duvernay	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Latavius Murray	1	1	1.0	1	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	11	11	115	1	28%	10.8
Rashod Bateman	7	8	103	0	20%	6.6
Marquise Brown	5	8	41	0	20%	-0.0
Devin Duvernay	2	5	14	0	13%	-1.2
Devonta Freeman	5	5	8	0	13%	-2.3
Josh Oliver	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Sammy Watkins	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Brandon Stephens	6	2	0	0
Chuck Clark	4	2	0	0
Chris Westry	5	0	0	1
Odafe Oweh	3	2	0	0
Josh Bynes	1	4	0	0
Anthony Averett	3	1	1	2
Nnamdi Madubuike	3	1	0	0
Tyus Bowser	2	1	0	1
Josh Oliver	2	0	0	0
Kevon Seymour	2	0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/32	190	2	1	0	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	17	59	3.5	-2.7
D'Ernest Johnson	4	22	5.5	-1.4
Baker Mayfield	6	14	2.3	1.3
Kareem Hunt	2	5	2.5	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones	5	7	90	0	23%	3.4
Jarvis Landry	5	10	41	1	32%	-6.4
Austin Hooper	5	6	30	1	19%	2.2
Kareem Hunt	2	2	13	0	6%	0.9
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	7	0	3%	1.8
Nick Chubb	3	4	6	0	13%	-2.1
Andy Janovich	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Grant Delpit	11	0	0.0
John Johnson	6	1	0.5
Troy Hill	5	2	0.0
Greedy Williams	6	0	0.0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	6	0	0.0
M.J. Stewart	4	0	0.0
Denzel Ward	4	0	0.0
Myles Garrett	3	0	1.0
Malik McDowell	2	1	0.0
Jacob Phillips	2	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -3
Closing total: 44
BAL moneyline: +135
CLE moneyline: -150

Browns closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44; the game landed 46 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: BAL 7 days · CLE 14 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.