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Baltimore Ravens 22 at Cleveland Browns 24. Final.
Browns -3 no coverO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 14
Cleveland Browns 24, Ravens 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:17 — 32.1 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:17
Unnamed on the sheet
Ravens
9-J.Tucker kicks onside 6 yards from BAL 35 to BAL 41. RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark.
32.1
15 mph wind
Browns closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Cleveland Browns 24–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:17, Ravens +32.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyler HuntleyBrownsQ4 1:11(1:11) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 31 for -10 yards (90-J.Clowney).
13.9pts
Rashod BatemanBrownsQ4 1:00(1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward).
17.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Ravens at 1 of 12 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 5 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Browns won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Ravens at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Ravens172 of 182 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 1:17Ravens 22 — Browns 24CLE ballCLE 92%
Ravens 8%Browns 92%
9-J.Tucker kicks onside 6 yards from BAL 35 to BAL 41. RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark.
Swing −32.1 for BrownsExpected points −2.12 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:17BAL +32% win prob9-J.Tucker kicks onside 6 yards from BAL 35 to BAL 41. RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark.
4th · 1:00BAL +18% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward).
4th · 1:11BAL +14% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 31 for -10 yards (90-J.Clowney).
2nd · 5:32BAL +8% win prob(5:32) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Averett at BAL 40. 23-A.Averett pushed ob at CLE 39 for 21 yards (81-A.Hooper).
1st · 0:44CLE +6% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:13CLE +6% win prob(4:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to BAL 26 for 34 yards (23-A.Averett).
1st · 10:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase McLaughlin's 43-yard field goal with 7:34 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:34Chase McLaughlin·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+30–3
Ravens ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Ravens: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Ravens: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.01Browns: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Ravens: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.19Browns: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 69 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Browns’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Browns 2.
NoteRavens outgained Browns 389-292 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 9.1% in week 13.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.54× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Browns13.5%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 11.3 points below their season mean of 14.1% and 1.5 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%74 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Tyre PhillipsG · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%74 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Full-time95%70 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Full-time88%65 snaps
2Tyler HuntleyQB · Full-time86%64 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Heavy rotation66%49 snaps
33Devonta FreemanRB · Heavy rotation66%49 snaps
12Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation65%48 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Rotational31%23 snaps
11James ProcheWR · Rotational28%21 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational27%20 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Situational19%14 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Situational14%10 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Situational12%9 snaps
63Trystan ColonC · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jimmy SmithCBPatrick RicardFBPatrick MekariGNick BoyleTEMiles BoykinWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Tucker kicks−31% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
9-J.Tucker kicks onside 6 yards from BAL 35 to BAL 41. RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark.
Q4 1:17 · Browns · Kickoff at BAL 35 · gained nothing · -2.12 EP · −30.9% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 90 yards from the BAL 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
39%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0871%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.1071%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.1253%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.7645%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.9270%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 30
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 49
Ravens0Browns3
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Ravens 25
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 22
Ravens0Browns9
Ravens0Browns10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Ravens 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 25
Ravens0Browns16
Ravens0Browns17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Ravens 1
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 29
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 44
Ravens3Browns17
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Browns 31
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Ravens 42
Ravens3Browns23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Ravens 20
Ravens3Browns24
Ravens6Browns24
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Browns 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 12
Punt12 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Ravens 46
Ravens9Browns24
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Browns 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 49
4th quarter56 plays
No good8 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 23
Ravens15Browns24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Browns 1
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Browns 37
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Ravens 43
Ravens21Browns24
Ravens22Browns24
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 10 to the Browns 8
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -3
Closing total
44
Ravens moneyline
+135
Browns moneyline
-150
Browns closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44; the game landed 46 — over by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Browns 14 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
CLE +5% win prob
(10:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on BAL-23-A.Averett, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at CLE 11 - No Play.
4th · 8:59CLE +5% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
