2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -3.5 ✓O 52.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33–27. Biggest swing: OT 5:42, TB +54% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 5:42BUF — TB TB ball · 3rd & 3BUF 54%

(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-B.Perriman for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 5:42TB +54% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-B.Perriman for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 8:58TB +30% win prob(8:58) 3-M.Haack punts 63 yards to TB 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
Q4 · 1:04TB +20% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox to TB 15 for 24 yards (54-L.David).
OT · 7:00BUF +14% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette to TB 28 for -7 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	76	75
Total yards	466	490 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	79%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.48 (edge)	0.06
Third downs	2/13	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

31/46, 363 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

36/54, 308 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.4 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

19 att, 113 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

12 att, 109 yds, 1 TD

8.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

10/15 for 105 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/6 for 91 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 24	5	21	2:10	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 18	6	15	2:55	Punt
3	TB	TB 33	6	62	1:42	Touchdown
4	BUF	BUF 25	7	21	2:54	Punt
5	TB	TB 15	15	80	6:43	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	BUF 25	8	77	4:08	Turnover on downs
7	TB	TB 25	9	64	2:17	Touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 25	7	13	2:59	Punt
9	TB	TB 28	11	72	2:43	Touchdown
10	BUF	BUF 25	3	10	0:29	Interception
11	TB	BUF 45	4	5	0:20	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 20	5	22	0:39	Punt
13	TB	TB 2	1	0	0:01	End of half
14	BUF	BUF 25	6	17	2:32	Turnover on downs
15	TB	BUF 42	4	8	1:19	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 19	10	81	3:40	Touchdown
17	TB	TB 25	7	8	2:36	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 23	6	22	2:42	Punt
19	TB	TB 10	11	84	5:51	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 25	7	70	2:13	Touchdown
21	TB	TB 10	5	1	0:59	Punt
22	BUF	TB 46	10	42	3:15	Touchdown
23	TB	TB 25	7	10	1:48	Punt
24	BUF	BUF 23	14	70	2:43	Turnover on downs
25	TB	TB 16	2	0	0:22	Turnover on downs
26	BUF	BUF 25	5	6	1:12	Punt
27	TB	TB 6	6	75	3:17	Touchdown

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	36/54	308	2	1	3	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	12	109	9.1	1	8.1
Devin Singletary	4	52	13.0	0	3.0
Matt Breida	3	12	4.0	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	7	13	74	0	25%	0.7
Cole Beasley	9	11	64	0	22%	-0.3
Dawson Knox	7	9	60	1	18%	-0.1
Gabe Davis	5	8	43	1	16%	0.1
Devin Singletary	6	7	37	0	14%	0.7
Emmanuel Sanders	1	1	25	0	2%	1.6
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	5	0	2%	0.0
Matt Breida	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	6	5	0.0	1
Jordan Poyer	7	3	0.0	1
Micah Hyde	7	1	0.0	0
Dane Jackson	7	0	0.0	2
Matt Milano	4	3	1.0	0
Taron Johnson	4	1	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	2	3	0.0	0
Eli Ankou	1	1	1.0	0
Levi Wallace	1	1	0.0	0
Joe Giles-Harris	1	1	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	31/46	363	2	0	2	10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	19	113	5.9	1	1.6
Tom Brady	7	16	2.3	1	1.4
Ronald Jones	3	8	2.7	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	10	15	105	0	33%	-0.2
Mike Evans	6	6	91	1	13%	10.7
Rob Gronkowski	5	9	62	0	20%	1.0
Breshad Perriman	1	2	58	1	4%	5.2
Leonard Fournette	4	7	19	0	15%	-1.4
Tyler Johnson	3	3	17	0	7%	0.4
Cameron Brate	2	4	11	0	9%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	7	3	1.5	0
Antoine Winfield	8	1	0.0	0
Lavonte David	7	1	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	6	1	0.0	0
Ross Cockrell	4	1	0.0	0
Andrew Adams	3	2	0.0	2
Carlton Davis	4	1	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	1	1.5	0
Grant Stuard	1	2	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3.5
Closing total: 52.5
BUF moneyline: +161
TB moneyline: -181

Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 60 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: BUF 6 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Bruce Arians