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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Bills199 of 213 plays carry both curves
(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-B.Perriman for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +54.2 for BuccaneersExpected points +5.88 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 212
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:42TB +54% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-B.Perriman for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 8:58TB +30% win prob(8:58) 3-M.Haack punts 63 yards to TB 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
4th · 1:04TB +20% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox to TB 15 for 24 yards (54-L.David).
Overtime · 7:00BUF +14% win prob(7:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette to TB 28 for -7 yards (49-T.Edmunds; 21-J.Poyer).
1st · 8:22TB +13% win prob(8:22) (Shotgun) 7-L.Fournette right tackle for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:22BUF +12% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 35 for -10 yards (58-M.Milano).
Overtime · 9:01
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Breshad Perriman's 58-yard touchdown catch with 5:42 left in overtime put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:25Tyler Bass·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+327–27
Overtime5:42Breshad Perriman·58-yd TD catch58-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+627–33
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Bills4–5Buccaneers
466Total yards490
6.1Yards per play6.5
49%Success rate48%
15%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
12Explosive plays8
26First downs23
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Bills: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Bills: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.23Buccaneers: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.48Bills: +0.48 expected points added per play
+0.06Buccaneers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 76 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 75 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Buccaneers 5.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 53.5% in week 13 against 80.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 28 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 19.8 points above their season mean of 60.2% and 1.7 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%78 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%78 snaps
65Ike BoettgerG · Every snap100%78 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%78 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%78 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Full-time96%75 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time88%69 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Full-time83%65 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Full-time82%64 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Full-time81%63 snaps
1Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational32%25 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Situational14%11 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational14%11 snaps
15Jake KumerowWR · Situational6%5 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational1%1 snap
71Ryan BatesC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Carlos BashamDEStar LotuleleiDTVernon ButlerDTCody FordGZack MossRBDamar HamlinSSTommy SweeneyTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Mitchell TrubiskyQB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
78Tristan WirfsT · Every snap100%83 snaps
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%83 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%83 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%83 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%83 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%83 snaps
14Chris GodwinWR · Full-time94%78 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time93%77 snaps
87Rob GronkowskiTE · Full-time88%73 snaps
7Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time80%66 snaps
18Tyler JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation59%49 snaps
16Breshad PerrimanWR · Rotational31%26 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational25%21 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Situational10%8 snaps
25Giovani BernardRB · Situational8%7 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Situational6%5 snaps
1Jaelon DardenWR · Situational4%3 snaps
72Josh WellsT · Situational2%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Pierre DesirCBSteve McLendonNTKyle TraskQBJordan WhiteheadSSScott MillerWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
T.Brady pass+54% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 16-B.Perriman for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 5:42 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 3 at TB 42 · gained 58 · +5.88 EP · +54.2% win probability
197 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 213 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 213 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 94 yards from the TB 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
213 of 213 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
213
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
954
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68+0.0981%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.2562%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1675%
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
213 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
213 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bills0Buccaneers6
Bills0Buccaneers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Bills 47
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 47
The period ended12 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Bills 20
2nd quarter62 plays
Bills0Buccaneers10
Field goal4 plays
Bills3Buccaneers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Buccaneers 3
Bills3Buccaneers16
Bills3Buccaneers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bills 13
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 39
Bills3Buccaneers23
Bills3Buccaneers24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Bills 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 40
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 40
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 42
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 45
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Bills 34
Bills9Buccaneers24
Bills10Buccaneers24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Buccaneers 18
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 36
4th quarter61 plays
Bills10Buccaneers27
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Bills 6
Bills16Buccaneers27
Bills17Buccaneers27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Buccaneers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 11
Bills23Buccaneers27
Bills24Buccaneers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Buccaneers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Bills27Buccaneers27
Field goal16 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Buccaneers 7
The period ended3 plays
Overtime13 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Bills27Buccaneers33
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 6 to the Buccaneers 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3.5
Closing total
52.5
Bills moneyline
+161
Buccaneers moneyline
-181
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 60 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Bills 6 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Bruce Arians
BUF +12% win prob
(9:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs.
Overtime · 7:06TB +12% win prob(7:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans. PENALTY on BUF-39-L.Wallace, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at TB 16 - No Play.
