2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -11.5 ✓O 43 ✓Packers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Green Bay Packers 45–30. Biggest swing: Q2 1:54, CHI +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:54CHI — GB GB ball · 4th & 4GB 68%

(1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:54CHI +19% win prob(1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:09CHI +18% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 45. 29-R.Douglas for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:30GB +14% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 10-D.Byrd for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:52GB +13% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Packers
Offensive plays	58	62
Total yards	347	440 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	0.32 (edge)
Success rate	36%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

29/37, 341 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

15.8 expected points added · +17.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

18/33, 224 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -7.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

9 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

15 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

10/13 for 121 yds, 2 TD

37% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Allen LazardWR

6/7 for 75 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	9	35	3:32	Punt
2	GB	GB 20	4	1	2:20	Punt
3	CHI	GB 44	10	39	4:47	Turnover on downs
4	GB	GB 5	9	41	4:31	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 11	7	74	3:41	Touchdown
6	GB	GB 25	13	75	5:07	Touchdown
7	CHI	CHI 41	4	7	1:03	Defensive touchdown
8	CHI	CHI 40	5	60	1:38	Touchdown
9	GB	GB 24	7	26	1:49	Defensive touchdown
10	GB	GB 25	6	75	0:48	Touchdown
11	CHI	CHI 42	7	32	0:44	Turnover on downs
12	GB	GB 25	11	75	5:36	Touchdown
13	CHI	CHI 25	3	-1	0:52	Fumble
14	GB	CHI 23	2	23	0:08	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 8	5	4	1:47	Punt
16	GB	CHI 48	7	48	3:45	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 13	5	5	1:20	Punt
18	GB	GB 46	4	5	1:32	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 27	4	9	1:49	Punt
20	GB	GB 29	14	71	8:38	Touchdown
21	CHI	CHI 21	11	64	3:11	Turnover on downs
22	GB	GB 46	6	19	0:36	Interception
23	GB	GB 10	2	0	0:46	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	18/33	224	2	2	2	-11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Fields	9	74	8.2	3.9
David Montgomery	10	42	4.2	-0.7
Damien Williams	2	13	6.5	0.9
Jakeem Grant	1	5	5.0	0.0
Khalil Herbert	1	3	3.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Damiere Byrd	2	2	76	1	6%	6.6
Jakeem Grant	1	3	46	1	9%	3.3
David Montgomery	6	7	39	0	22%	-0.5
Darnell Mooney	1	5	19	0	16%	-9.6
Cole Kmet	3	5	17	0	16%	-3.1
Allen Robinson	2	6	14	0	19%	0.5
Jimmy Graham	2	3	9	0	9%	-1.5
Damien Williams	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Artie Burns	5	3	0
Eddie Jackson	6	2	1
Roquan Smith	3	5	0
Tashaun Gipson	5	3	0
Alec Ogletree	1	4	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	3	1	0
Angelo Blackson	1	1	0
Deon Bush	2	0	0
Xavier Crawford	2	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	2	0	1

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	29/37	341	4	0	3	15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
A.J. Dillon	15	71	4.7	0	1.2
Aaron Jones	5	35	7.0	1	1.9
Allen Lazard	1	14	14.0	0	1.9
Aaron Rodgers	1	0	0.0	0	-1.0
Kurt Benkert	2	-1	-0.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	10	13	121	2	37%	9.6
Allen Lazard	6	7	75	1	20%	8.8
Marcedes Lewis	4	4	51	0	11%	4.3
Josiah Deguara	3	3	44	0	9%	1.2
Aaron Jones	3	3	30	1	9%	0.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	5	20	0	14%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	7	7	0.0	0	0
Krys Barnes	3	2	0.0	0	1
Preston Smith	3	1	2.0	0	0
Darnell Savage	2	1	0.0	0	0
Henry Black	2	1	0.0	0	1
Adrian Amos	2	1	0.0	0	1
Kenny Clark	1	1	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	2	0	0.0	1	2
Chandon Sullivan	1	1	0.0	1	1
Eric Stokes	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -11.5
Closing total: 43
CHI moneyline: +498
GB moneyline: -639

Packers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 43; the game landed 75 — over by 32.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CHI 7 days · GB 14 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.