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Green Bay Packers 45, Bears 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:54, 4th and 4 — 18.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:54 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Bears
(1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Packers closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Green Bay Packers 45–30. Biggest swing: Q2 1:54, Bears +18.9% win probability on one snap.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rasul DouglasPackersQ2 5:09(5:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 45. 29-R.Douglas for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.8pts
Damiere ByrdBearsQ2 3:30(3:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 10-D.Byrd for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bears167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.9 for PackersExpected points −7.20 for PackersThe model had Bears 23 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:54CHI +19% win prob(1:54) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CHI 3, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-J.Grant for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:09CHI +18% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 45. 29-R.Douglas for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:30GB +14% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 10-D.Byrd for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:52GB +13% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:40CHI +12% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -8 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at CHI 24, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at CHI 23. 52-R.Gary to CHI 23 for no gain (65-C.Whitehair). Penalty on CHI-76-T.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 11:17GB +12% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 17-J.Grant for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Jones's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 9:28 left in the 3rd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:24Cairo Santos·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–0
4th1:26Cairo Santos·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+330–45
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryPackers
Bears1–8Packers
347Total yards440
6.0Yards per play7.1
36%Success rate58%
38%Third-down rate40%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays10
14First downs26
2Sacks taken3
3Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Bears: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.32Packers: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Bears: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.40Packers: +0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Bears: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.18Packers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 58 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Packers’s 62 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Packers 6.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Packers20.9%
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.9%, 7.7 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 1.7 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass−29% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB 45. 29-R.Douglas for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:09 · Bears · 3rd & 3 at CHI 48 · gained nothing · -8.82 EP · −29.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 89 yards from the CHI 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
786
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0665%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.3267%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.3763%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.4443%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 40
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 26
Bears3Packers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Packers 3
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 5 to the Packers 46
2nd quarter58 plays
Punt1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.9 seconds
Bears9Packers0
Bears10Packers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Packers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bears10Packers6
Bears10Packers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Bears10Packers13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Bears 48
Bears10Packers14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bears16Packers14
Bears17Packers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 46
Bears23Packers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 24 to midfield
Bears24Packers14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bears24Packers20
Bears24Packers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 38
Bears27Packers21
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Packers 26
3rd quarter41 plays
Bears27Packers27
Bears27Packers28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 3
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
Bears27Packers34
Bears27Packers35
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Bears 12
Bears27Packers38
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bears 2
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Bears 49
4th quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bears 36
Bears27Packers44
Bears27Packers45
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Bears 3
Bears30Packers45
Field goal13 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Packers 25
Intercepted8 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
