2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · FedExField

Dallas CowboysWinner

Washington Commanders

DAL -6.5 ✓U 48 ✓17 mph windCowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Dallas Cowboys 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:32, DAL +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 5:32DAL — WAS WAS ball · 3rd & 10DAL 72%

(5:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 94-R.Gregory at DAL 47. 94-R.Gregory to WAS 41 for 12 yards (1-D.Carter).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 5:32DAL +12% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 94-R.Gregory at DAL 47. 94-R.Gregory to WAS 41 for 12 yards (1-D.Carter).
Q1 · 6:21DAL +9% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Collins at DAL 40. 26-L.Collins to DAL 37 for 3 yards (88-C.Lamb).
Q4 · 4:24DAL +8% win prob(4:24) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb at DAL 31. 55-C.Holcomb for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:34DAL +8% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen sacked at WAS 30 for -7 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], touched at WAS 32, RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Kearse at WAS 29. 27-J.Kearse to WAS 28 for 1 yard (13-A.Humphries, 60-K.Ismael). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Commanders
Offensive plays	76	63
Total yards	328 (edge)	227
Yards per play	4.3 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	-0.14 (edge)	-0.46
Success rate	41% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	61%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20 (edge)	-0.79
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	7/17 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4 (edge)	5
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

22/39, 211 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -13.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

11/25, 122 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-23.9 expected points added · -17.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

12 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Corey ClementRB

13 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Cam SimsWR

3/4 for 69 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

7/10 for 61 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 29	13	54	5:23	Turnover on downs
2	WAS	WAS 25	6	16	1:34	Punt
3	DAL	DAL 5	4	16	1:50	Interception
4	WAS	DAL 37	3	0	0:47	Interception
5	DAL	WAS 41	6	43	1:44	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 27	7	-5	3:13	Defensive touchdown
7	WAS	WAS 25	6	4	2:14	Punt
8	DAL	DAL 18	4	8	1:58	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 41	4	4	0:56	Punt
10	DAL	DAL 20	11	32	5:23	Turnover on downs
11	WAS	WAS 19	7	11	2:44	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 23	12	63	1:59	Turnover on downs
13	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
14	WAS	WAS 25	8	17	2:22	Punt
15	DAL	DAL 16	10	48	3:21	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 10	7	92	2:20	Touchdown
17	DAL	DAL 25	6	16	2:52	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 20	2	5	0:53	Fumble
19	DAL	WAS 25	5	15	1:37	Turnover on downs
20	WAS	WAS 25	5	5	2:21	Punt
21	DAL	DAL 39	4	6	1:18	Punt
22	WAS	WAS 20	4	-2	0:57	Punt
23	DAL	DAL 33	4	5	2:35	Punt
24	WAS	WAS 27	14	78	4:15	Touchdown
25	DAL	DAL 22	3	4	0:56	Defensive touchdown
26	DAL	DAL 13	5	7	1:09	Punt
27	WAS	WAS 30	3	2	0:40	Fumble
28	DAL	WAS 28	6	11	2:24	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 92 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	22/39	211	1	2	4	-11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	12	45	3.8	1.2
Corey Clement	13	44	3.4	-2.4
Dak Prescott	7	15	2.1	-2.5
CeeDee Lamb	2	15	7.5	0.7
Jaquan Hardy	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	7	10	61	0	26%	-0.4
Michael Gallup	5	9	60	0	23%	2.3
Amari Cooper	5	7	51	1	18%	2.7
Cedrick Wilson	2	2	18	0	5%	1.0
Ezekiel Elliott	1	6	15	0	15%	-1.2
Dalton Schultz	1	3	4	0	8%	-8.2
Corey Clement	1	2	2	0	5%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jourdan Lewis	6	0	0.0	1
Dorance Armstrong	3	2	0.0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	2	2	0.0	1
Damontae Kazee	2	1	0.0	0
Micah Parsons	3	0	2.0	0
Jayron Kearse	2	1	0.0	1
Carlos Watkins	1	1	0.0	0
Malik Hooker	1	1	0.0	0
Tarell Basham	2	0	0.0	0
Trevon Diggs	1	1	0.0	3

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	11/25	122	1	1	4	-23.9
Kyle Allen	4/9	53	0	0	1	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	10	36	3.6	0	-1.0
Jaret Patterson	4	29	7.3	0	1.5
Jonathan Williams	4	16	4.0	1	3.1
Kyle Allen	2	11	5.5	0	-0.2
Taylor Heinicke	3	8	2.7	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cam Sims	3	4	69	1	12%	4.7
Adam Humphries	4	7	34	0	21%	-0.6
Jonathan Williams	1	1	19	0	3%	1.7
John Bates	1	2	19	0	6%	0.9
DeAndre Carter	2	6	12	0	18%	-7.9
Jaret Patterson	1	1	9	0	3%	0.5
Ricky Seals-Jones	1	4	8	0	12%	-3.7
Antonio Gibson	2	2	5	0	6%	-5.3
Curtis Samuel	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.3
Terry McLaurin	0	3	0	0	9%	-3.1
Dyami Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kamren Curl	3	5	0.0	0	0
William Jackson	7	0	0.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	2	5	0.0	1	1
Daniel Wise	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Allen	4	2	1.0	0	0
Daron Payne	4	1	1.0	0	0
Jamin Davis	2	3	0.0	0	1
Landon Collins	5	0	2.0	1	1
Kendall Fuller	4	0	0.0	0	2
Tim Settle	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -6.5
Closing total: 48
DAL moneyline: -284
WAS moneyline: +246

Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 48; the game landed 47 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: DAL 10 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.