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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 27 at Washington Commanders 20. Final.
Cowboys -6.5 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 14
Dallas Cowboys 27, Commanders 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:32, 3rd and 10, on Randy Gregory — 11.9 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:32 · 3rd and 10
Randy Gregory
Cowboys
(5:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 94-R.Gregory at DAL 47. 94-R.Gregory to WAS 41 for 12 yards (1-D.Carter).
Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Dallas Cowboys 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 5:32, Cowboys +11.9% win probability on one snap.
11.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
L.CollinsCommandersQ1 6:21(6:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Collins at DAL 40. 26-L.Collins to DAL 37 for 3 yards (88-C.Lamb).
9.2pts
Cole HolcombCommandersQ4 4:24(4:24) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb at DAL 31. 55-C.Holcomb for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — -0.20 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.79 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 2 giveaways, against Commanders at 4 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — -0.14 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 7 of 17 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 14 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Cowboys188 of 198 plays carry both curves
(5:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 94-R.Gregory at DAL 47. 94-R.Gregory to WAS 41 for 12 yards (1-D.Carter).
Swing −11.9 for CommandersExpected points −5.57 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 29 points higher than the market did.play 28
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:32DAL +12% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 94-R.Gregory at DAL 47. 94-R.Gregory to WAS 41 for 12 yards (1-D.Carter).
1st · 6:21DAL +9% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left intended for 88-C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Collins at DAL 40. 26-L.Collins to DAL 37 for 3 yards (88-C.Lamb).
4th · 4:24DAL +8% win prob(4:24) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle intended for 86-D.Schultz INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb at DAL 31. 55-C.Holcomb for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:34DAL +8% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen sacked at WAS 30 for -7 yards (94-R.Gregory). FUMBLES (94-R.Gregory) [94-R.Gregory], touched at WAS 32, RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Kearse at WAS 29. 27-J.Kearse to WAS 28 for 1 yard (13-A.Humphries, 60-K.Ismael). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 0:41DAL +5% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 42 for -12 yards (11-M.Parsons). FUMBLES (11-M.Parsons) [11-M.Parsons], RECOVERED by DAL-92-D.Armstrong at WAS 37. 92-D.Armstrong for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:45
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 35-yard field goal with 9:41 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:41Greg Zuerlein·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+33–0
1st3:45Amari Cooper·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point good+811–0
2nd5:02Greg Zuerlein·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+321–0
2nd0:19Greg Zuerlein·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+324–0
3rd7:06Cam Sims·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinickefrom Taylor Heinicke · two-point good+824–8
3rd1:39Greg Zuerlein·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+327–8
4th5:12Jonathan Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+627–14
4th4:24Cole Holcomb·31-yd defence TD31-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick blocked by C.Golston+627–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryCommanders
Cowboys8–0Commanders
328Total yards227
4.3Yards per play3.6
41%Success rate33%
41%Third-down rate21%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
19First downs15
4Sacks taken5
2Turnovers4
The read
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.79 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.46Commanders: −0.46 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Cowboys: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.79Commanders: −0.79 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Cowboys: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.21Commanders: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 76 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Commanders’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 6, Commanders 2.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 13 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Commanders13.0%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 31.4 points above their season mean of 35.2% and 1.2 times their own 25.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Heinicke pass−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:32) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left intended for 1-D.Carter INTERCEPTED by 94-R.Gregory at DAL 47. 94-R.Gregory to WAS 41 for 12 yards (1-D.Carter).
Q1 5:32 · Commanders · 3rd & 10 at DAL 37 · gained nothing · -5.57 EP · −18.3% win probability
186 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 90 yards from the WAS 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
35%
Yards
551
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.4965%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.2180%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2355%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0720%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.050%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Cowboys3Commanders0
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Commanders 17
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Cowboys 21
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Cowboys9Commanders0
Cowboys11Commanders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 7
Cowboys17Commanders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Cowboys 46
Cowboys18Commanders0
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Commanders 38
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 22
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 45
Cowboys21Commanders0
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Commanders 19
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 30
Cowboys24Commanders0
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Commanders 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 42
Punt11 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Commanders 36
Cowboys24Commanders6
Cowboys24Commanders8
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Cowboys 43
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 42
Fumble lost2 plays
Cowboys27Commanders8
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 10
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 20
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 39 to the Cowboys 45
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 36
Cowboys27Commanders14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Cowboys 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Cowboys27Commanders20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cowboys 26
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 20
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -6.5
Closing total
48
Cowboys moneyline
-284
Commanders moneyline
+246
Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 48; the game landed 47 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Cowboys 10 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
WAS +4% win prob
(3:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-98-M.Ioannidis, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
1st · 13:19WAS +3% win prob(13:19) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at WAS 42 for 18 yards (23-W.Jackson).
1st · 7:25WAS +3% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 21 for 12 yards (55-C.Holcomb, 31-K.Curl).
