2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Detroit Lions

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -13 ✓O 42 ✓Broncos closed -13 and covered, winning by 28.

Denver Broncos 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:51, DEN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:51DET — DEN DEN ball · 1st & 5DEN 89%

(9:51) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:51DEN +7% win prob(9:51) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:19DET +5% win prob(14:19) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 35-G.Igwebuike right end to DET 34 for 4 yards (41-K.Young; 96-S.Harris). FUMBLES (41-K.Young), RECOVERED by DEN-53-J.Cooper at DET 36.
Q2 · 8:53DEN +5% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 41 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).
Q1 · 11:50DEN +4% win prob(11:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on DET-1-N.Robey, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Broncos
Offensive plays	62	65
Total yards	316	358 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	45%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.20 (edge)
Third downs	5/14	8/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

24/39, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-8.5 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

18/25, 179 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.9 expected points added · +4.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

24 att, 111 yds, 2 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Craig ReynoldsRB

11 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/12 for 73 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Josh ReynoldsWR

3/5 for 52 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	13	61	5:14	Touchdown
2	DET	DET 25	5	-3	1:37	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 26	13	74	7:16	Touchdown
4	DET	DET 25	9	75	3:22	Touchdown
5	DEN	DEN 25	5	3	0:47	Punt
6	DET	DET 25	11	57	5:10	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 25	7	14	3:31	Punt
8	DET	DET 20	7	17	1:58	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 22	9	39	1:05	Turnover on downs
10	DET	DET 25	3	9	0:49	Fumble
11	DEN	DET 36	6	46	3:08	Touchdown
12	DET	DET 25	5	8	2:16	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DET 33	5	33	2:13	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 25	17	77	8:21	Turnover on downs
15	DEN	DEN 5	4	0	1:45	Punt
16	DET	DET 49	5	31	2:29	Interception
17	DEN	DEN 12	15	88	7:08	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	10	45	1:51	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 88 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	24/39	215	1	1	2	-8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Craig Reynolds	11	83	7.5	3.6
Godwin Igwebuike	8	25	3.1	-3.6
Jared Goff	2	10	5.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	8	12	73	0	32%	1.9
Josh Reynolds	3	5	52	0	13%	2.5
Kalif Raymond	4	5	31	1	13%	4.3
Brock Wright	3	5	20	0	13%	-5.6
Shane Zylstra	2	6	18	0	16%	-6.4
Craig Reynolds	2	2	16	0	5%	0.6
Tom Kennedy	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
KhaDarel Hodge	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Taylor Decker	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Woods	7	3	0.0	0
Will Harris	2	7	0.0	1
Dean Marlowe	2	5	0.0	0
C.J. Moore	2	4	0.0	0
Jessie Lemonier	2	4	0.0	0
Jalen Elliott	3	2	0.0	0
Michael Brockers	1	4	0.0	0
Anthony Pittman	3	1	0.0	0
Alim McNeill	1	3	1.0	0
Derrick Barnes	1	3	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	18/25	179	2	0	1	8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	24	111	4.6	2	3.2
Javonte Williams	15	73	4.9	1	4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	4	4	51	0	16%	2.8
Jerry Jeudy	5	6	47	0	24%	2.4
Albert Okwuegbunam	5	5	41	1	20%	3.2
Tim Patrick	2	5	21	0	20%	0.1
Javonte Williams	1	2	10	1	8%	1.7
Courtland Sutton	1	2	9	0	8%	0.4
Diontae Spencer	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Simmons	4	1	0.0	1	1
Jonas Griffith	2	3	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	5	0	0.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	4	0	0.0	0	1
Stephen Weatherly	1	3	0.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	1	0.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	3	0	2.0	0	1
Caden Sterns	2	1	0.0	0	0
Baron Browning	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -13
Closing total: 42
DET moneyline: +495
DEN moneyline: -635

Broncos closed -13 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 42; the game landed 48 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: DET 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Vic Fangio