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2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
LionsDetroit10
BY 28final margin
BroncosDenver38
Detroit Lions 10 at Denver Broncos 38. Final.
Broncos -13 ✓O 42 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 14
Denver Broncos 38, Lions 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:51, 1st and 5, on Javonte Williams — 6.8 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:51 · 1st and 5
Javonte Williams
Broncos
(9:51) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -13 and covered, winning by 28.
Denver Broncos 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:51, Broncos +6.8% win probability on one snap.
6.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kalif RaymondLionsQ2 8:53(8:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 41 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).
4.5pts
Godwin IgwebuikeBroncosQ3 14:19(14:19) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 35-G.Igwebuike right end to DET 34 for 4 yards (41-K.Young; 96-S.Harris). FUMBLES (41-K.Young), RECOVERED by DEN-53-J.Cooper at DET 36.
5.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Lions at 5 of 14 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Lions158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(9:51) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +6.8 for BroncosExpected points +1.05 for BroncosThe model had Lions 20 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:51DEN +7% win prob(9:51) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:19DET +5% win prob(14:19) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 35-G.Igwebuike right end to DET 34 for 4 yards (41-K.Young; 96-S.Harris). FUMBLES (41-K.Young), RECOVERED by DEN-53-J.Cooper at DET 36.
2nd · 8:53DEN +5% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DEN 41 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).
1st · 11:50DEN +4% win prob(11:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on DET-1-N.Robey, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play.
1st · 14:23DET +3% win prob(14:23) 25-M.Gordon left tackle to DEN 41 for 5 yards (91-M.Brockers).
1st · 14:53DEN +3% win prob(14:53) 25-M.Gordon right guard to DEN 36 for 11 yards (25-W.Harris; 42-J.Elliott).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Javonte Williams's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 9:51 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:51Javonte Williams·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Broncos ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.25Broncos: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Lions: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.34Broncos: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Lions: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.20Broncos: +0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Broncos 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's early-down pass rate, 30.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 37.0% in week 12.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 13.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, −12.5 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −7.9 pts in week 12.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Broncos9.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 30.8%, 21.4 points below their season mean of 52.2% and 1.9 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on DET-1-N.Robey, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at DET 42 - No Play.
Q1 11:50 · Broncos · 3rd & 9 at DET 42 · gained nothing · +2.38 EP · +11.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 88 yards from the DEN 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
47%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1579%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2759%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1816%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.5917%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.3040%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Lions0Broncos6
Lions0Broncos7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Lions 5
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
Lions0Broncos13
Lions0Broncos14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Lions 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 26
2nd quarter51 plays
Lions6Broncos14
Lions7Broncos14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Broncos 7
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 28
Lions10Broncos14
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Broncos 18
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 39
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 37
Lions10Broncos17
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Lions 34
3rd quarter35 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
Lions10Broncos23
Lions10Broncos24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Lions 10
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 33
Lions10Broncos30
Lions10Broncos31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Lions 14
The period ended15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Broncos 31
4th quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 1
Punt4 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Broncos 20
Lions10Broncos37
Lions10Broncos38
Touchdown18 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Lions 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Broncos 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
