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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
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2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 14
It turned at Q1 11:36, 3rd and 7, on Ryan Tannehill — 8.8 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:36 · 3rd and 7
Ryan Tannehill
Titans
(11:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to JAX 31 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard). TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 31.
Tennessee Titans 20–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:36, Titans +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 4 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(11:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to JAX 31 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard). TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Unnecessary Roughness
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D'Onta Foreman's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 10:07 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jaguarscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 51 snaps at a 86% dropback rate against Titans’s 66 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 0, Titans 3.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's early-down pass rate, 83.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
JAX's pass rate over expected, +11.3 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate, 26.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Jaguars11.3 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +13.4 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+2.21× that swing) · 51 snaps
Titans2.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +10.0 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 88%
Tendencies room →Jaguars83.3%off script — passed early · +23.7 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+2.31× that swing) · 36 early downs
Titans51.9%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Jaguars—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.5%.
Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Jaguars26.3%leaned — got home · +12.8 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Titans13.6%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
JAX's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 23.7 points above their season mean of 59.6% and 2.3 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
24/40, 221 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT
-16.3 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
20/31, 191 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.8 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
4/6 for 68 yds, 0 TD
16% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Marvin Jones banked 2.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 16.5 | −2.3 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 191 yd · 4 car, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | +2.4 | 32% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 13 car, 47 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | +2.9 | 98% | 95% | 19% | 17% | 6/7, 70 yd |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.8 | +1.2 | 80% | 77% | 16% | 26% | 4/6, 68 yd |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −0.5 | 76% | 58% | 13% | 9% | 3/4, 45 yd |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 7.4 | −1.9 | 82% | 84% | 19% | 14% | 4/7, 34 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | −0.1 | 42% | 45% | 17% | 15% | 4/5, 34 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 7.3 | −2.3 | 45% | 53% | 20% | 24% | 4/6, 33 yd |
| James O'ShaughnessyTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −2.9 | 73% | 70% | 16% | 6% | 4/6, 21 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +1.5 | 73% | 79% | 10% | 9% | 3/3, 31 yd |
| Tavon AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −1.9 | 47% | 50% | 14% | 11% | 3/5, 17 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 2.5 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Chester RogersWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.5 | 23% | 32% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Racey McMathWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.2 | 14% | 11% | 7% | 12% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Carlos HydeRB | 1.8 | −1.7 | 22% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 1.6 | −3.8 | 38% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 8 car, 16 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cody HollisterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 61% | 53% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −5.8 | 46% | 26% | 10% | 20% | 1/3, 5 yd |
| Dontrell HilliardRB | 1.3 | −4.2 | 34% | 32% | 7% | 0% | 6 car, 13 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 1.0 | −10.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/40, 221 yd, 4 INT · 1 car, 2 yd |
| James RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 0.4 | −2.3 | 64% | 55% | 0% | — | 6 car, 4 yd |
| Jaydon MickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Logan WoodsideQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to JAX 31 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard). TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 31.
Q1 11:36 · Titans · 3rd & 7 at JAX 48 · gained 17 · +3.32 EP · +12.4% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 74 yards from the TEN 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jaguars0
Titans6Jaguars0Titans7Jaguars0Titans10Jaguars0Titans16Jaguars0Titans17Jaguars0Titans20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/40 | 221 | 0 | 4 | 3 | −16.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 19% | +1.6 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 16% | +2.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Wilson | 6 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/31 | 191 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_14_JAX_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 20 — under by 24.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 19% | −0.6 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 16% | −0.7 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 14% | −5.4 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −3.7 |
| Jaydon Mickens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Davon Hamilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcom Brown | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
| 47 |
| 3.6 |
| 1 |
| −0.7 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 | +7.3 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Logan Woodside | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 13% | +4.1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 17% | +4.1 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 20% | −1.2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 10% | +1.5 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7% | +1.1 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Cody Hollister | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −1.2 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaan Evans | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Elijah Molden | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derick Roberson | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Buster Skrine | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kevin Byard | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harold Landry | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
