2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -8.5 ✓U 44.5 ✓Titans closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Tennessee Titans 20–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:36, TEN +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:36JAX — TEN TEN ball · 3rd & 7TEN 73%

(11:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to JAX 31 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard). TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Unnecessary Roughness

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:36TEN +9% win prob(11:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to JAX 31 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard). TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 31.
Q3 · 13:03JAX +6% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 10-L.Shenault INTERCEPTED by 54-R.Evans at TEN 43. 54-R.Evans to TEN 44 for 1 yard (11-M.Jones).
Q1 · 10:40TEN +5% win prob(10:40) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 7-D.Foreman to JAX 5 for 11 yards (44-M.Jack; 90-M.Brown).
Q1 · 14:51TEN +4% win prob(14:51) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 87-G.Swaim to TEN 35 for 9 yards (44-M.Jack; 54-D.Wilson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Titans
Offensive plays	51	66
Total yards	192	266 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	4.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.43	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	29%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	86%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	0.20 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.69	-0.19 (edge)
Third downs	5/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.43.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

24/40, 221 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-16.3 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

20/31, 191 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.8 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

D'Onta ForemanRB

13 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Jeremy McNicholsRB

8 att, 16 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Marvin JonesWR

6/7 for 70 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Laquon TreadwellWR

4/6 for 68 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 26	12	59	4:57	Touchdown
2	JAX	JAX 25	8	4	4:21	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 24	9	42	5:05	Turnover on downs
4	JAX	JAX 37	7	29	4:23	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 12	15	57	8:04	Turnover on downs
6	JAX	JAX 25	8	20	2:12	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 8	5	4	0:56	Punt
8	JAX	JAX 48	1	31	0:02	End of half
9	JAX	JAX 25	6	20	2:06	Interception
10	TEN	TEN 44	4	8	2:07	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 11	7	16	2:46	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 31	12	54	5:10	Touchdown
13	JAX	JAX 15	6	59	2:22	Interception
14	TEN	TEN 33	6	8	3:30	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 29	3	7	1:09	Interception
16	TEN	TEN 18	4	2	1:38	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 41	8	-2	2:17	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 17	6	19	2:31	Punt
19	JAX	JAX 18	2	3	0:52	Interception
20	TEN	JAX 14	4	13	1:12	Turnover on downs
21	JAX	JAX 25	5	5	0:33	Turnover on downs
22	TEN	JAX 30	3	0	1:47	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 59 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	24/40	221	0	4	3	-16.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	6	4	0.7	-3.4
Trevor Lawrence	1	2	2.0	-0.9
Carlos Hyde	1	2	2.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	6	7	70	19%	1.6
Laquon Treadwell	4	6	68	16%	2.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	4	7	34	19%	-0.6
James O'Shaughnessy	4	6	21	16%	-0.7
Tavon Austin	3	5	17	14%	-5.4
Carlos Hyde	1	2	6	5%	-0.4
Dare Ogunbowale	2	3	5	8%	-3.7
Jaydon Mickens	0	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Damien Wilson	6	4	1.0
Andrew Wingard	5	3	0.0
Myles Jack	5	3	0.0
Shaquill Griffin	4	0	0.0
Davon Hamilton	3	1	0.0
Tyson Campbell	2	2	0.0
Malcom Brown	2	2	0.0
Roy Robertson-Harris	3	1	1.0
Rudy Ford	2	1	0.0
Rayshawn Jenkins	3	0	0.0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	20/31	191	0	0	4	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	13	47	3.6	1	-0.7
Ryan Tannehill	4	29	7.3	1	7.3
Jeremy McNichols	8	16	2.0	0	-2.6
Dontrell Hilliard	6	13	2.2	0	-2.2
Logan Woodside	3	-3	-1.0	0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Geoff Swaim	3	4	45	13%	4.1
Anthony Firkser	4	5	34	17%	4.1
Julio Jones	4	6	33	20%	-1.2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	3	3	31	10%	1.5
D'Onta Foreman	2	2	15	7%	1.1
Chester Rogers	1	1	13	3%	0.5
Racey McMath	1	2	9	7%	-0.5
Cody Hollister	1	1	6	3%	0.4
MyCole Pruitt	1	3	5	10%	-1.2
Jeremy McNichols	0	1	0	3%	-0.0
Dontrell Hilliard	0	2	0	7%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rashaan Evans	1	5	0.0	1	1
Elijah Molden	2	3	0.0	0	0
Derick Roberson	1	3	1.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	3	1	0.0	1	2
Buster Skrine	3	1	0.0	1	2
Kevin Byard	1	3	0.0	0	1
Harold Landry	2	1	1.0	0	0
Chris Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0
Amani Hooker	2	0	0.0	0	1
Jeffery Simmons	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -8.5
Closing total: 44.5
JAX moneyline: +321
TEN moneyline: -384

Titans closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 20 — under by 24.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: JAX 7 days · TEN 14 days
Coaches: Urban Meyer vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.