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2021 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 13, 2021 · State Farm Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles30
BY 7final margin
CardinalsArizona23
Los Angeles Rams 30 at Arizona Cardinals 23. Final.
Cardinals -3 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 14
Los Angeles Rams 30, Cardinals 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:59, 2nd and 4, on Ernest Jones — 17.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:59 · 2nd and 4
Ernest Jones
Rams
(3:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Jones (99-A.Donald) at LA 1. 50-E.Jones to LA 32 for 31 yards (61-R.Hudson).
O 51 ✓
Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 3:59, Rams +17.6% win probability on one snap.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Van JeffersonRamsQ3 13:44(13:44) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.4pts
Leonard FloydRamsQ3 13:14(13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 54-L.Floyd at ARI 30. 54-L.Floyd ran ob at ARI 19 for 11 yards.
14.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Rams at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Rams170 of 184 plays carry both curves
(3:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Jones (99-A.Donald) at LA 1. 50-E.Jones to LA 32 for 31 yards (61-R.Hudson).
Swing −17.6 for CardinalsExpected points −7.19 for CardinalsModel and market agree here.play 31
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:59LA +18% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Jones (99-A.Donald) at LA 1. 50-E.Jones to LA 32 for 31 yards (61-R.Hudson).
3rd · 13:44ARI +15% win prob(13:44) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:14LA +14% win prob(13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 54-L.Floyd at ARI 30. 54-L.Floyd ran ob at ARI 19 for 11 yards.
2nd · 2:00ARI +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 3-O.Beckham pushed ob at ARI 24 for 40 yards (3-B.Baker).
2nd · 0:10ARI +11% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end ran ob at LA 35 for 16 yards (54-L.Floyd).
2nd · 6:14ARI +10% win prob(6:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk to LA 22 for 41 yards (11-D.Williams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Van Jefferson's 52-yard touchdown catch with 13:44 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:03Matt Prater·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+30–3
2nd12:56Odell Beckham·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–3
2nd7:28Matt Gay·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+310–3
4th7:24Matt Gay·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+330–20
4th0:41Matt Prater·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+330–23
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryCardinals
Rams4–3Cardinals
356Total yards447
6.6Yards per play6.0
46%Success rate45%
50%Third-down rate53%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays8
16First downs22
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Rams: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.06Cardinals: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Rams: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Rams: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.20Cardinals: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 54 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 75 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Cardinals 4.
NoteCardinals outgained Rams 447-356 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 9 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 14.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.5 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 67.6% in week 10 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
A 3.6-swing turn from week 13.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.3 pts in week 13 against +4.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.3 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Cardinals15.2%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 52.4 points above their season mean of 47.6% and 2.1 times their own 25.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
70Joseph NoteboomT · Every snap100%58 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%58 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%58 snaps
65Coleman SheltonG · Every snap100%58 snaps
25Sony MichelRB · Every snap100%58 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%58 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%58 snaps
86Kendall BlantonTE · Full-time90%52 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time90%52 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Heavy rotation79%46 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Heavy rotation72%42 snaps
88Brycen HopkinsTE · Rotational34%20 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Situational24%14 snaps
71Bobby EvansG · Situational10%6 snaps
Inactive · 5
Brian AllenCChris GarrettLBTerrell LewisOLBBryce PerkinsQBTremayne AnchrumT
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:44) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 13:44 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 48 · gained 52 · +4.82 EP · +18.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 75 yards from the ARI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
41%
Yards
803
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1074%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.4874%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.5664%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1746%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.3483%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.330%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Rams0Cardinals3
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 35
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Rams 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Cardinals 39
2nd quarter53 plays
Rams6Cardinals3
Rams7Cardinals3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 2
Punt6 plays
Rams10Cardinals3
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Cardinals 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Rams10Cardinals9
Rams10Cardinals10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams13Cardinals10
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Cardinals 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerTwo
Rams13Cardinals13
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 35
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Rams19Cardinals13
Rams20Cardinals13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Rams26Cardinals13
Rams27Cardinals13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 4
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 14
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Rams 49
4th quarter52 plays
Rams27Cardinals19
Rams27Cardinals20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 41 to the Rams 8
Rams30Cardinals20
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 7
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 37
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Cardinals 49
Rams30Cardinals23
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Rams 27
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
