2021 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 13, 2021 · State Farm Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -3 upsetO 51 ✓Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Los Angeles Rams 30–23. Biggest swing: Q1 3:59, LA +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:59LA — ARI ARI ball · 2nd & 4ARI 75%

(3:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Jones (99-A.Donald) at LA 1. 50-E.Jones to LA 32 for 31 yards (61-R.Hudson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:59LA +18% win prob(3:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Jones (99-A.Donald) at LA 1. 50-E.Jones to LA 32 for 31 yards (61-R.Hudson).
Q3 · 13:44ARI +15% win prob(13:44) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 13:14LA +14% win prob(13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 54-L.Floyd at ARI 30. 54-L.Floyd ran ob at ARI 19 for 11 yards.
Q2 · 2:00ARI +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 3-O.Beckham pushed ob at ARI 24 for 40 yards (3-B.Baker).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Cardinals
Offensive plays	54	75
Total yards	356	447 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	46% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	61%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.44 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	6/12	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	16	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Cardinals outgained Rams 447–356 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

32/49, 383 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

23/30, 287 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.5 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Sony MichelRB

20 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

7 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

13/15 for 123 yds, 1 TD

50% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

A.J. GreenWR

7/10 for 102 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	11	45	4:02	Turnover on downs
2	LA	LA 25	5	4	1:02	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 33	12	59	6:06	Interception
4	LA	LA 32	11	68	5:57	Touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 25	5	-6	2:36	Punt
6	LA	LA 29	8	44	2:54	Turnover on downs
7	ARI	ARI 25	11	75	4:05	Touchdown
8	LA	LA 30	8	53	2:43	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	7	45	0:35	Turnover on downs
10	LA	LA 25	5	60	1:24	Touchdown
11	ARI	ARI 25	3	0	0:32	Interception
12	LA	ARI 19	8	15	3:19	Touchdown
13	ARI	ARI 25	12	61	5:06	Turnover on downs
14	LA	LA 14	5	17	2:54	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 27	7	83	3:07	Touchdown
16	LA	LA 25	11	85	6:18	Turnover on downs
17	ARI	ARI 25	7	38	2:03	Turnover on downs
18	LA	LA 37	6	10	2:33	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 13	11	56	2:07	Turnover on downs
20	LA	ARI 48	3	-9	0:37	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	23/30	287	3	0	3	14.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	20	79	4.0	0	-3.6
Van Jefferson	1	10	10.0	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	13	15	123	1	50%	9.8
Odell Beckham	6	7	77	1	23%	7.1
Van Jefferson	2	3	58	1	10%	3.9
Kendall Blanton	2	3	29	0	10%	1.3
Sony Michel	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3
Ben Skowronek	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Darious Williams	6	0	0.0	0	3
David Long	5	1	0.0	0	1
Jordan Fuller	5	1	0.0	0	0
Ernest Jones	3	2	0.0	1	1
Aaron Donald	3	2	3.0	0	1
Leonard Floyd	2	3	0.0	1	2
Kareem Orr	3	1	0.0	0	0
Greg Gaines	2	2	1.0	0	0
Nick Scott	3	1	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	2	2	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	32/49	383	0	2	4	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyler Murray	7	61	8.7	0	0.6
James Conner	13	31	2.4	2	-4.2
Rondale Moore	2	11	5.5	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	7	10	102	20%	5.0
James Conner	9	9	94	18%	6.3
Christian Kirk	3	6	86	12%	3.2
DeAndre Hopkins	5	13	54	27%	-1.6
Zach Ertz	5	7	42	14%	-9.2
Rondale Moore	3	4	5	8%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jalen Thompson	4	4	0.0	0
Robert Alford	5	2	0.0	0
Budda Baker	3	2	0.0	0
Jordan Phillips	2	2	1.0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	1	0.0	0
Zach Allen	3	1	1.0	0
Isaiah Simmons	2	2	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	3	0	0.0	1
Corey Peters	1	2	0.0	0
Marco Wilson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -3
Closing total: 51
LA moneyline: +154
ARI moneyline: -172

Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 53 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: open · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: LA 8 days · ARI 8 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.