2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -10 ✓O 48 ✓19 mph windChiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 39.

Kansas City Chiefs 48–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:52, LV +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:52LV — KC LV ball · 1st & 10KC 84%

(14:52) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 22 for -3 yards (90-J.Reed). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Hughes at LV 23. 21-M.Hughes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:52LV +12% win prob(14:52) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 22 for -3 yards (90-J.Reed). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Hughes at LV 23. 21-M.Hughes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:01KC +3% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 23 for 7 yards (56-B.Niemann).
Q1 · 12:03KC +3% win prob(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 32, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
Q1 · 5:27KC +2% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman to LV 30 for 44 yards (27-T.Mullen).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Chiefs
Offensive plays	61	54
Total yards	290	374 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	0.35 (edge)
Success rate	41%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	0.57 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.56	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	5/11	9/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	0	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	5	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

33/45, 263 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-3.0 expected points added · +5.2% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

20/24, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.5 expected points added · +18.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Derrick GoreRB

9 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

10 att, 37 yds, 2 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

13/14 for 117 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

4/4 for 76 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	2	-2	0:17	Defensive touchdown
2	LV	LV 11	8	13	2:47	Punt
3	KC	KC 32	4	3	1:18	Punt
4	LV	LV 19	7	26	4:37	Punt
5	KC	KC 20	6	75	2:18	Touchdown
6	LV	LV 25	6	20	2:08	Punt
7	KC	KC 20	8	85	4:22	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 23	3	7	0:54	Interception
9	KC	LV 39	10	31	5:02	Touchdown
10	LV	LV 25	4	25	1:19	Fumble
11	KC	KC 38	8	27	3:18	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 25	15	54	1:40	Turnover on downs
13	KC	KC 23	11	56	6:35	Turnover on downs
14	LV	LV 31	12	65	4:56	Touchdown
15	KC	KC 25	15	46	8:37	Turnover on downs
16	LV	LV 25	7	24	2:24	Fumble
17	KC	KC 49	2	51	0:09	Touchdown
18	LV	LV 25	11	58	5:23	Fumble
19	KC	KC 11	3	0	1:56	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	33/45	263	1	1	4	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	9	24	2.7	-9.3
Trey Ragas	1	9	9.0	1.2
Peyton Barber	1	7	7.0	0.4
Dallin Leavitt	1	4	4.0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Renfrow	13	14	117	1	33%	4.1
Josh Jacobs	5	6	46	0	14%	4.1
Zay Jones	5	7	25	0	16%	-5.9
Bryan Edwards	2	3	24	0	7%	1.1
DeSean Jackson	1	2	19	0	5%	0.8
Peyton Barber	2	3	13	0	7%	-0.5
Foster Moreau	3	6	13	0	14%	-5.4
Trey Ragas	2	2	6	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Divine Deablo	4	5	0.0	0
Johnathan Abram	2	6	0.0	0
Maxx Crosby	1	4	0.0	1
Trayvon Mullen	3	1	0.0	0
Johnathan Hankins	3	1	0.0	0
Clelin Ferrell	2	1	1.0	0
Nate Hobbs	3	0	0.0	0
Trevon Moehrig	3	0	0.0	0
K.J. Wright	1	2	0.0	0
Casey Hayward	1	2	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	20/24	258	2	0	3	15.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Gore	9	66	7.3	1	0.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10	37	3.7	2	1.2
Patrick Mahomes	4	20	5.0	0	1.6
Darrel Williams	2	8	4.0	0	0.0
Michael Burton	1	3	3.0	0	0.5
Mecole Hardman	1	0	0.0	0	-0.4
Chad Henne	3	-2	-0.7	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	4	4	76	0	18%	7.8
Mecole Hardman	2	2	59	0	9%	5.3
Darrel Williams	3	3	31	1	14%	3.3
Byron Pringle	1	1	28	0	5%	2.1
Travis Kelce	3	4	27	0	18%	0.7
Derrick Gore	2	2	23	0	9%	2.4
Josh Gordon	2	3	9	1	14%	1.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	3	5	0	14%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Mike Hughes	8	1	0	0
Nick Bolton	3	3	0	0
Willie Gay	3	2	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	5	0	1	1
Jarran Reed	3	2	0	0
Armani Watts	2	2	0	0
Rashad Fenton	2	2	0	0
Ben Niemann	2	1	0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	0	0	0
Deandre Baker	2	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -10
Closing total: 48
LV moneyline: +365
KC moneyline: -444

Chiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 39.

Total closed 48; the game landed 57 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: LV 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Rich Bisaccia vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.