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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas9
BY 39final margin
ChiefsKansas City48
Las Vegas Raiders 9 at Kansas City Chiefs 48. Final.
Chiefs -10 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs 48, Raiders 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:52, 1st and 10, on Josh Jacobs — 12.2 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:52 · 1st and 10
Josh Jacobs
Chiefs
(14:52) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 22 for -3 yards (90-J.Reed). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Hughes at LV 23. 21-M.Hughes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 39.
Kansas City Chiefs 48–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:52, Chiefs +12.2% win probability on one snap.
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Hunter RenfrowRaidersQ1 14:01(14:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 23 for 7 yards (56-B.Niemann).
2.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetRaidersQ1 12:03(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 32, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
2.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 5 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Raiders158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(14:52) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 22 for -3 yards (90-J.Reed). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Hughes at LV 23. 21-M.Hughes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.2 for ChiefsExpected points +7.80 for ChiefsThe model had Raiders 27 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:52LV +12% win prob(14:52) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 22 for -3 yards (90-J.Reed). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Hughes at LV 23. 21-M.Hughes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:01KC +3% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 23 for 7 yards (56-B.Niemann).
1st · 12:03KC +3% win prob(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 32, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
1st · 5:27KC +2% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman to LV 30 for 44 yards (27-T.Mullen).
1st · 6:48LV +1% win prob(6:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 40 for -7 yards (sack split by 98-T.Wharton and 55-F.Clark).
1st · 8:38KC +1% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 40 for 16 yards (35-C.Ward).
1st · 6:10
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Hughes's 23-yard touchdown with 14:52 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Chiefs ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Raiders: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.35Chiefs: +0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Raiders: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.57Chiefs: +0.57 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.56Raiders: −0.56 expected points added per play
+0.08Chiefs: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 61 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 54 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's early-down pass rate, 47.6%, is past their previous low of 51.9% in week 4 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Chiefs16.3%
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 0.8 pts, 8.5 points below their season mean of 9.2 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%63 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
70Alex LeatherwoodT · Every snap100%63 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%63 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Full-time98%62 snaps
75Brandon ParkerT · Full-time98%62 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Full-time94%59 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Full-time84%53 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation75%47 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
1DeSean JacksonWR · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
36Trey RagasRB · Situational14%9 snaps
31Peyton BarberRB · Situational11%7 snaps
78Jackson BartonT · Situational5%3 snaps
41Sutton SmithFB · Situational3%2 snaps
86Daniel HelmTE · Situational2%1 snap
17Tyron JohnsonWR · Situational2%1 snap
8Marcus MariotaQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Amik RobertsonCBCarl NassibDEKendal VickersDTJermaine EluemunorGDenzel PerrymanILBPatrick OnwuasorMLBDarren WallerTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Will ComptonILB
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%66 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Andrew WylieG · Full-time94%62 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Full-time94%62 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Full-time94%62 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Full-time94%62 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation67%44 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational45%30 snaps
19Josh GordonWR · Rotational36%24 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational35%23 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Rotational35%23 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Rotational35%23 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Rotational33%22 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Rotational33%22 snaps
40Derrick GoreRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational8%5 snaps
73Nick AllegrettiG · Situational8%5 snaps
85Marcus KempWR · Situational6%4 snaps
67Lucas NiangT · Situational6%4 snaps
66Austin BlytheC · Situational6%4 snaps
4Chad HenneQB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
Dicaprio BootleCBL'Jarius SneedCBKyle LongGShane BuecheleQBPrince Tega WanoghoT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Jacobs left−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:52) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 22 for -3 yards (90-J.Reed). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Hughes at LV 23. 21-M.Hughes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:52 · Raiders · 1st & 10 at LV 25 · lost 2 · -7.80 EP · −18.7% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 85 yards from the KC 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
48%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.2984%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2466%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.5027%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0217%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders0Chiefs6
Touchdown2 plays
Raiders0Chiefs7
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 24
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Chiefs 35
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Raiders 47
Raiders0Chiefs13
Raiders0Chiefs14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Raiders 23
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 45
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Raiders0Chiefs20
Raiders0Chiefs21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Raiders 5
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 30
Raiders0Chiefs27
Raiders0Chiefs28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Raiders 1
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 31
Raiders0Chiefs34
Raiders0Chiefs35
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Raiders 6
Raiders3Chiefs35
Field goal17 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 7
3rd quarter34 plays
Raiders3Chiefs38
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Raiders 23
Raiders9Chiefs38
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Chiefs 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 46
4th quarter34 plays
Raiders9Chiefs41
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Raiders 19
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 49
Raiders9Chiefs47
Raiders9Chiefs48
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 22
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -10
Closing total
48
Raiders moneyline
+365
Chiefs moneyline
-444
Chiefs closed -10 and covered, winning by 39.
Total closed 48; the game landed 57 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Rich Bisaccia vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
LV +1% win prob
(6:10) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
1st · 10:06LV +1% win prob(10:06) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs right end to LV 23 for 3 yards (35-C.Ward; 53-A.Hitchens). PENALTY on LV-89-B.Edwards, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 20 - No Play.
