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New Orleans Saints 30, Jets 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 11:44, 4th and 7, on Braxton Berrios — 9.0 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:44 · 4th and 7
Braxton Berrios
Jets
(11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).
Saints closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 21.
New Orleans Saints 30–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:44, Jets +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Eddy PineiroJetsQ2 10:04(10:04) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
8.1pts
Eddy PineiroJetsQ2 0:05(:05) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
5.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.21 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Saints169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).
Swing +9.0 for JetsExpected points +3.15 for JetsThe model had Jets 20 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:44NYJ +9% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).
2nd · 10:04NYJ +8% win prob(10:04) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
2nd · 0:05NYJ +6% win prob(:05) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
3rd · 10:42NO +6% win prob(10:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 44 for -8 yards (5-K.Alexander).
3rd · 11:49NYJ +6% win prob(11:49) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NO-5-K.Alexander, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 43 - No Play.
3rd · 5:32NYJ +5% win prob(5:32) 7-T.Hill pass short left to 34-T.Jones to NYJ 26 for 19 yards (51-T.Ward).
3rd · 0:10
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 3:49 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:40Brett Maher·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+33–0
2nd10:04Eddy Pineiro·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+33–3
2nd3:49Alvin Kamara·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–3
2nd0:05Eddy Pineiro·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+310–6
3rd1:02Brett Maher·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+313–6
4th12:26Brett Maher·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.Wood+316–6
Saints ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Saints: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.33Jets: −0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Saints: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.37Jets: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Saints: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 68 snaps at a 40% dropback rate against Jets’s 62 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Saints 6, Jets 3.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.0% in week 13 against 38.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jets11.1%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.2%, 7.2 points below their season mean of 17.4% and 1.1 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74James HurstT · Every snap100%70 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%70 snaps
76Calvin ThrockmortonT · Every snap100%70 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%70 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation74%52 snaps
81Nick VannettTE · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
1Marquez CallawayWR · Heavy rotation71%50 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation70%49 snaps
12Kenny StillsWR · Rotational39%27 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational33%23 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Rotational29%20 snaps
34Tony JonesRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
45Garrett GriffinTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
77James CarpenterG · Situational19%13 snaps
17Kevin WhiteWR · Situational17%12 snaps
86Ethan WolfTE · Situational11%8 snaps
18Easop WinstonWR · Situational10%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Will ClappCKen CrawleyCBKaden EllissOLBPete WernerOLBIan BookQBRyan RamczykTLil'Jordan HumphreyWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Trevor SiemianQBCaleb BenenochT
New York Jets
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%66 snaps
2Zach WilsonQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%66 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Z.Wilson pass+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).
Q2 11:44 · Jets · 4th & 7 at NO 35 · gained 14 · +3.15 EP · +11.8% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 85 yards from the NO 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
38%
Yards
600
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.3764%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR19-0.20100%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3944%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.3144%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2140%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1133%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.560%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.370%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 29
Saints3Jets0
Field goal14 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Jets 5
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Jets 46
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 13
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Saints3Jets3
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Saints 18
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Punt4 plays
Saints9Jets3
Saints10Jets3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 46 to the Jets 16
Saints10Jets6
Field goal15 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Saints 24
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 31
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Saints 48
Saints13Jets6
Field goal16 plays, from the Saints 7 to the Jets 8
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 30
4th quarter58 plays
Saints16Jets6
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Jets 19
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Saints 49
Saints22Jets6
Saints23Jets6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Jets 1
Saints23Jets9
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Saints 18
Punt8 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays
Saints29Jets9
Saints30Jets9
Touchdown5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Saints 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
