2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

New York Jets

NO -4.5 ✓U 42 ✓Saints closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 21.

New Orleans Saints 30–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:44, NYJ +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:44NO — NYJ NYJ ball · 4th & 7NO 77%

(11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:44NYJ +9% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).
Q2 · 10:04NYJ +8% win prob(10:04) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q2 · 0:05NYJ +6% win prob(:05) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q3 · 10:42NO +6% win prob(10:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 44 for -8 yards (5-K.Alexander).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Jets
Offensive plays	68	62
Total yards	344 (edge)	256
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.33
Success rate	47% (edge)	26%
Dropback rate	40%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0	0

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

19/42, 202 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-15.4 expected points added · -21.0% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

15/21, 175 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

27 att, 120 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

11 att, 73 yds, 2 TD

9.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Braxton BerriosWR

6/10 for 52 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Nick VannettTE

3/6 for 44 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 26	5	3	0:59	Punt
2	NO	NO 30	14	65	7:24	Turnover on downs
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	8	0:59	Punt
4	NO	NO 28	7	19	4:06	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 8	4	5	1:32	Punt
6	NO	NO 40	4	-18	1:49	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 44	9	38	3:10	Turnover on downs
8	NO	NO 25	5	9	2:02	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 23	4	-1	1:04	Punt
10	NO	NO 46	7	54	3:13	Touchdown
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	62	3:42	Turnover on downs
12	NO	NO 25	5	6	1:54	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 20	8	19	3:07	Punt
14	NO	NO 7	15	85	9:01	Turnover on downs
15	NYJ	NYJ 23	5	-9	0:58	Punt
16	NO	50	7	31	2:38	Turnover on downs
17	NYJ	NYJ 18	6	16	2:08	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 49	9	51	4:46	Touchdown
19	NYJ	NYJ 29	11	53	1:59	Turnover on downs
20	NO	NO 25	5	-2	0:27	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 34	4	8	0:23	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NYJ 42	4	44	1:32	Touchdown
23	NYJ	NYJ 45	6	54	1:07	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 85 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	15/21	175	0	0	3	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	27	120	4.4	1	-0.9
Taysom Hill	11	73	6.6	2	9.2
Tony Jones	6	10	1.7	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Nick Vannett	3	6	44	29%	0.4
Marquez Callaway	2	4	34	19%	1.0
Tre'Quan Smith	3	3	33	14%	4.5
Alvin Kamara	4	5	25	24%	-0.9
Tony Jones	1	1	19	5%	2.2
Juwan Johnson	1	1	15	5%	1.3
Easop Winston	1	1	5	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	5	2	0.0	1
Paulson Adebo	6	0	0.0	1
Marcus Williams	4	1	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	0	0.0	2
J.T. Gray	3	1	0.0	0
Kwon Alexander	4	0	2.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	3	0	0.0	0
Carl Granderson	2	0	1.0	0
Dwayne Washington	1	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	19/42	202	0	0	3	-15.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zach Wilson	4	33	8.3	-2.5
La'Mical Perine	7	28	4.0	-1.6
Ty Johnson	6	17	2.8	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Braxton Berrios	6	10	52	25%	1.6
Ty Johnson	4	7	40	18%	-2.5
D.J. Montgomery	3	6	36	15%	-2.7
Ryan Griffin	2	3	28	8%	0.1
Keelan Cole	1	6	27	15%	-2.2
Jamison Crowder	3	6	19	15%	-1.5
Vyncint Smith	0	1	0	3%	-0.4
Denzel Mims	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	9	6	0.0	0
Elijah Riley	4	6	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	5	3	0.0	1
Folorunso Fatukasi	1	4	0.0	0
Javelin Guidry	3	1	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	1	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	2	0.0	0
Kyle Phillips	2	1	1.0	0
Bryce Hall	3	0	0.0	0
Jarrad Davis	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -4.5
Closing total: 42
NO moneyline: -194
NYJ moneyline: +173

Saints closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 42; the game landed 39 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NO 10 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Robert Saleh