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New York Giants 21 at Los Angeles Chargers 37. Final.
Chargers -9.5 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers 37, Giants 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:00, 3rd and 10, on Kyle Rudolph — 6.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:00 · 3rd and 10
Kyle Rudolph
Giants
(3:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 80-K.Rudolph to LAC 5 for 60 yards (43-M.Davis, 36-T.Marshall) [37-K.Hall].
Dome
Chargers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Los Angeles Chargers 37–21. Biggest swing: Q1 3:00, Giants +6.3% win probability on one snap.
6.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Saquon BarkleyGiantsQ1 13:48(13:48) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NYG 42 for 15 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
5.5pts
Elijhaa PennyGiantsQ1 1:35(1:35) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 39-E.Penny for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-J.Bosa].
4.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.47 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Giants175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(3:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 80-K.Rudolph to LAC 5 for 60 yards (43-M.Davis, 36-T.Marshall) [37-K.Hall].
Swing −6.3 for ChargersExpected points −5.64 for ChargersThe model had Giants 14 points higher than the market did.play 34
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:00LAC +6% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 80-K.Rudolph to LAC 5 for 60 yards (43-M.Davis, 36-T.Marshall) [37-K.Hall].
1st · 13:48LAC +6% win prob(13:48) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to NYG 42 for 15 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
1st · 1:35LAC +4% win prob(1:35) 2-M.Glennon pass short right to 39-E.Penny for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-J.Bosa].
2nd · 13:43LAC +4% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham to NYG 19 for 15 yards (29-X.McKinney; 33-A.Robinson).
2nd · 12:13LAC +3% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 5-J.Palmer for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:19NYG +3% win prob(14:19) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 89-D.Parham to NYG 34 for -2 yards (20-J.Love).
2nd · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Palmer's 12-yard touchdown catch with 12:13 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Chargers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Giants: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.22Chargers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Giants: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.47Chargers: +0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Giants: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 66 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Chargers’s 68 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Chargers 7.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected turned over: +13.1 pts in week 13 against −3.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chargers17.5%
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 45.5%, 16.0 points below their season mean of 61.5% and 1.6 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Glennon pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 80-K.Rudolph to LAC 5 for 60 yards (43-M.Davis, 36-T.Marshall) [37-K.Hall].
Q1 3:00 · Giants · 3rd & 10 at NYG 35 · gained 60 · +5.64 EP · +12.5% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
45%
Yards
741
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0856%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2859%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.1332%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3480%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants3 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 15 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 14
Giants0Chargers6
Giants0Chargers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Giants 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Giants6Chargers7
Giants7Chargers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Chargers 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chargers 49
2nd quarter53 plays
Giants7Chargers13
Giants7Chargers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Giants 12
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 27
Giants7Chargers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Giants 5
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 8
Punt4 plays
Giants7Chargers23
Giants7Chargers24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 42
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
3rd quarter40 plays
Giants7Chargers27
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Giants 5
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
Giants7Chargers30
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 17
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Chargers 44
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Giants7Chargers36
Giants7Chargers37
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 1
Giants13Chargers37
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Chargers 18
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 39
Giants19Chargers37
Giants21Chargers37
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Chargers 7
Intercepted5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
