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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Steelers184 of 194 plays carry both curves
(5:36) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Swing +10.4 for VikingsExpected points +4.51 for VikingsThe model had Steelers 5 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:36PIT +10% win prob(5:36) 9-C.Boswell 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
1st · 11:47PIT +9% win prob(11:47) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
4th · 12:17MIN +7% win prob(12:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:13MIN +6% win prob(8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles up the middle to MIN 34 for 5 yards (90-S.Richardson). PENALTY on MIN-24-M.Alexander, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 34.
4th · 11:00MIN +6% win prob(11:00) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:29MIN +6% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to PIT 31 for 30 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Jefferson's 14-yard touchdown catch with 3:37 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:37Justin Jefferson·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousinsfrom Kirk Cousins · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+60–6
2nd14:47Greg Joseph·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+30–9
4th4:19Pat Freiermuth·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point good+828–36
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryVikings
Steelers2–6Vikings
377Total yards458
5.4Yards per play6.8
44%Success rate43%
31%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays10
20First downs21
5Sacks taken0
2Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Steelers: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.00Vikings: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Steelers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.25Vikings: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.24Vikings: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 70 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Vikings’s 67 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 6, Vikings 7.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 13 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Vikings14.9%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.6 pts, 8.5 points below their season mean of -1.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger scrambles+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger scrambles up the middle to MIN 34 for 5 yards (90-S.Richardson). PENALTY on MIN-24-M.Alexander, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 34.
Q1 8:13 · Steelers · 4th & 4 at MIN 39 · gained 5 · +3.89 EP · +11.6% win probability
182 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 84 yards from the PIT 4 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
38%
Yards
835
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.0271%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.3864%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0133%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2963%
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR7-0.1729%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7+1.3414%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7057%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.5660%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
No good9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Steelers 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
No good11 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Vikings 29
Steelers0Vikings6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Steelers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Steelers 36
2nd quarter53 plays
Steelers0Vikings9
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays
Steelers0Vikings15
Steelers0Vikings16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Steelers 29
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 24
Steelers0Vikings22
Steelers0Vikings23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Steelers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 33 to the Steelers 39
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Steelers 21
Steelers0Vikings26
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Steelers 20
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 42
Steelers0Vikings29
Field goal7 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 4
Steelers6Vikings29
Steelers7Vikings29
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Vikings 3
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 42 to the Vikings 9
4th quarter58 plays
Steelers13Vikings29
Steelers14Vikings29
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 30
Steelers20Vikings29
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Vikings 30
Steelers20Vikings35
Steelers20Vikings36
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 38
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Steelers 39
Steelers26Vikings36
Steelers28Vikings36
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 15
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 45
The period ended13 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Vikings 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
