2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · NRG Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Houston Texans

SEA -10 ✓O 40.5 ✓Seahawks closed -10 and covered, winning by 20.

Seattle Seahawks 33–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:41, HOU +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:41SEA — HOU SEA ball · 3rd & 10SEA 68%

(8:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett to HOU 24 for 29 yards (39-T.Mitchell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:41HOU +10% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett to HOU 24 for 29 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
Q2 · 1:00HOU +9% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:04HOU +8% win prob(:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Q1 · 11:52HOU +7% win prob(11:52) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins to SEA 5 for 30 yards (23-S.Jones).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Texans
Offensive plays	58	75
Total yards	455 (edge)	380
Yards per play	7.8 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.34 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	47%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.58 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.25
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0	0

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

33/49, 331 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.1 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

17/28, 260 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.9 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Rashaad PennyRB

16 att, 137 yds, 2 TD

5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Rex BurkheadRB

11 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

5/9 for 142 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 11.3 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

8/11 for 101 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	9	75	3:58	Touchdown
2	SEA	SEA 25	10	56	4:42	Turnover on downs
3	HOU	HOU 25	7	18	3:17	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 3	8	97	3:03	Touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 25	17	71	8:55	Turnover on downs
6	SEA	SEA 13	9	33	4:09	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 2	4	6	0:56	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 45	2	55	0:08	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 42	7	25	0:52	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 17	7	12	1:33	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 25	7	17	3:56	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 20	9	70	4:59	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 25	10	29	2:52	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 20	4	3	0:57	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 29	8	25	4:05	Punt
16	SEA	SEA 33	11	62	4:10	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 28	6	16	1:12	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	50	3	50	0:50	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 26	7	27	1:17	Turnover on downs
20	SEA	SEA 47	7	17	2:10	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 18	9	71	1:59	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 97 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	17/28	260	2	0	0	15.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rashaad Penny	16	137	8.6	2	5.9
Alex Collins	7	16	2.3	0	-2.8
DeeJay Dallas	2	16	8.0	0	0.5
Gerald Everett	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
Russell Wilson	2	8	4.0	0	0.0
Freddie Swain	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	5	9	142	1	32%	11.3
DK Metcalf	4	8	43	0	29%	1.0
Will Dissly	2	3	38	0	11%	2.2
Penny Hart	1	1	16	0	4%	1.0
Gerald Everett	2	2	15	1	7%	3.5
Nick Bellore	1	1	4	0	4%	0.0
Rashaad Penny	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.8
Alex Collins	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.6
Freddie Swain	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
D'Wayne Eskridge	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	5	9	0.0	0
Jordyn Brooks	4	6	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	7	0	0.0	0
Sidney Jones	5	2	0.0	0
Ryan Neal	3	3	0.0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	4	1	0.0	2
Al Woods	1	4	0.5	0
Poona Ford	1	3	0.0	0
Blessuan Austin	4	0	0.0	0
Penny Hart	1	1	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	33/49	331	1	0	2	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rex Burkhead	11	40	3.6	-0.4
Royce Freeman	11	15	1.4	-4.9
Davis Mills	2	8	4.0	-2.8
Phillip Dorsett	1	0	0.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	8	11	101	0	23%	1.1
Nico Collins	5	10	69	0	21%	-0.7
Royce Freeman	6	8	51	0	17%	0.4
Rex Burkhead	4	4	26	0	8%	0.7
Brevin Jordan	4	7	26	1	15%	-4.0
Chris Conley	2	2	20	0	4%	1.9
Davion Davis	1	1	17	0	2%	2.1
Phillip Dorsett	1	3	9	0	6%	-1.4
Jordan Akins	1	1	6	0	2%	0.5
Antony Auclair	1	1	6	0	2%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Christian Kirksey	3	5	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	4	1	1
Justin Reid	2	2	0
Jonathan Greenard	1	3	1
Eric Murray	2	2	0
Desmond King	2	2	0
Lonnie Johnson	3	0	1
Terrance Mitchell	3	0	0
Neville Hewitt	1	2	0
Ross Blacklock	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -10
Closing total: 40.5
SEA moneyline: -401
HOU moneyline: +334

Seahawks closed -10 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 46 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: open · astroturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: SEA 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs David Culley