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2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco26
BY 3final margin
BengalsCincinnati23
San Francisco 49ers 26 at Cincinnati Bengals 23. Final.
49ers -2.5 ✓49 push
The verdict · 2021 Week 14
San Francisco 49ers 26, Bengals 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 3rd and 10, on Robbie Gould — 33.4 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 3rd and 10
Robbie Gould
Bengals
(:04) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
San Francisco 49ers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Bengals +33.4% win probability on one snap.
33.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.J. UzomahBengalsOT 8:56(8:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to SF 26 for 23 yards (38-D.Lenoir, 3-J.Tartt).
22.9pts
Evan McPherson49ersOT 6:19(6:19) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
29.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.14 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at +0.14 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against 49ers at 7 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on 49ers177 of 193 plays carry both curves
(:04) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Swing +33.4 for BengalsExpected points +2.17 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 7 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04SF +33% win prob(:04) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Overtime · 6:19SF +29% win prob(6:19) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Overtime · 8:56CIN +23% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to SF 26 for 23 yards (38-D.Lenoir, 3-J.Tartt).
Overtime · 5:35CIN +23% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 15-J.Jennings to CIN 47 for 25 yards (21-M.Hilton).
Overtime · 4:47CIN +19% win prob(4:47) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle to CIN 26 for 21 yards (24-V.Bell).
2nd · 1:07CIN +18% win prob(1:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-T.Pepper. 23-D.Phillips MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-81-T.Sherfield at CIN 31.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Aiyuk's 12-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in overtime put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:41Robbie Gould·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+33–0
1st0:36Evan McPherson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–3
2nd1:46Evan McPherson·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+310–6
2nd0:25George Kittle·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+717–6
3rd7:46Robbie Gould·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+320–6
4th9:29Ja'Marr Chase·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+720–13
4th1:25Ja'Marr Chase·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+720–20
Overtime6:19Evan McPherson·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+320–23
Overtime2:00Brandon Aiyuk·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+626–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryBengals
49ers3–3Bengals
355Total yards398
5.1Yards per play6.2
42%Success rate41%
33%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays8
20First downs20
5Sacks taken5
0Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to 49ers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1249ers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.11Bengals: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.1449ers: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.27Bengals: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0749ers: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.14Bengals: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 69 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Bengals’s 64 at 63%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Bengals 6.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Bengals21.3%
leaned — got home · +7.4 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 4.7 pts, 11.3 points above their season mean of -6.6 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Evan McPherson−29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:19) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
OT 6:19 · Bengals · 4th & 7 at SF 23 · gained nothing · +0.71 EP · −29.4% win probability
175 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 87 yards from the CIN 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
38%
Yards
752
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.1862%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2379%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.0957%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0736%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1543%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 37
49ers3Bengals0
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 15
49ers3Bengals3
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the 49ers 19
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
49ers9Bengals3
49ers10Bengals3
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the Bengals 27
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 49
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 28
49ers10Bengals6
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the 49ers 10
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 27
49ers16Bengals6
49ers17Bengals6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 14
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 34
49ers20Bengals6
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bengals 6
No good13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the 49ers 19
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 36 to the 49ers 41
4th quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 47
49ers20Bengals12
49ers20Bengals13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the 49ers 17
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 49
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
49ers20Bengals19
49ers20Bengals20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the 49ers 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
No good14 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the Bengals 29
Overtime19 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
49ers20Bengals23
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the 49ers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
49ers26Bengals23
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bengals 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -2.5
Closing total
49
49ers moneyline
-130
Bengals moneyline
+117
49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 49 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 47°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
49ers 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Zac Taylor
Overtime · 10:00
CIN +15% win prob
(10:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to SF 49 for 26 yards (20-A.Thomas). SF-20-A.Thomas was injured during the play.
Overtime · 2:00CIN +15% win prob(2:00) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at CIN 1 for 11 yards (30-J.Bates III). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
