2021 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 12, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

SF -2.5 ✓49 push49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

San Francisco 49ers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, SF +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04SF — CIN SF ball · 3rd & 10SF 81%

(:04) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04SF +33% win prob(:04) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
OT · 6:19SF +29% win prob(6:19) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
OT · 8:56CIN +23% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to SF 26 for 23 yards (38-D.Lenoir, 3-J.Tartt).
OT · 5:35CIN +23% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 15-J.Jennings to CIN 47 for 25 yards (21-M.Hilton).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Bengals
Offensive plays	69	64
Total yards	355	398 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	42% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	68%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.27 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	5	5
Turnovers	0	0

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/34, 348 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

27/41, 296 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

18 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

13 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

13/15 for 151 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 9.8 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

5/7 for 114 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	5	-11	2:07	Punt
2	CIN	SF 44	4	-2	0:59	Punt
3	SF	SF 20	6	17	2:44	Punt
4	SF	CIN 23	4	18	2:33	Turnover on downs
5	CIN	CIN 14	12	72	6:06	Turnover on downs
6	SF	SF 25	8	75	3:26	Touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 27	6	20	2:37	Punt
8	SF	SF 21	4	7	1:40	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 37	12	48	6:06	Turnover on downs
10	SF	SF 26	5	5	0:45	Punt
11	SF	CIN 31	5	17	0:39	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 18	2	0	0:18	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 25	5	9	2:00	Punt
14	SF	SF 25	12	69	5:17	Turnover on downs
15	CIN	CIN 25	12	42	6:30	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 36	7	1	4:21	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 34	7	66	2:32	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 26	6	5	2:40	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 31	5	4	2:03	Punt
20	SF	SF 15	6	22	1:57	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 13	8	87	1:21	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 21	11	50	1:19	Turnover on downs
23	CIN	CIN 25	8	52	3:45	Turnover on downs
24	SF	SF 25	8	80	4:22	Touchdown

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 87 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	27/41	296	2	0	5	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	13	56	4.3	0	-0.7
Deebo Samuel	8	37	4.6	1	1.6
Brandon Aiyuk	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	3	3.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	13	15	151	1	41%	9.8
Brandon Aiyuk	6	10	62	1	27%	0.8
Jauan Jennings	3	5	46	0	14%	2.0
Deebo Samuel	1	1	22	0	3%	1.5
Jamycal Hasty	3	3	10	0	8%	-0.4
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	5	0	5%	-1.2
Travis Benjamin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	7	3	1.0	1
Fred Warner	1	6	0.0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	3	4	0.0	0
Ambry Thomas	2	4	0.0	0
K'Waun Williams	4	2	1.0	0
D.J. Jones	1	3	0.0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	3	1	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	2	2	0.0	1
Samson Ebukam	0	3	0.5	0
Marcell Harris	1	2	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/34	348	2	0	5	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	18	58	3.2	-3.2
Samaje Perine	4	11	2.8	-0.8
Tyler Boyd	1	8	8.0	0.5
Ja'Marr Chase	1	6	6.0	0.2
Joe Burrow	2	3	1.5	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	5	7	114	0	21%	7.3
Ja'Marr Chase	5	8	77	2	24%	7.7
C.J. Uzomah	4	6	56	0	18%	3.0
Tyler Boyd	4	5	55	0	15%	3.5
Samaje Perine	4	5	22	0	15%	-2.4
Drew Sample	1	1	14	0	3%	0.9
Joe Mixon	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Vonn Bell	5	5	0.0	2
Jessie Bates	8	1	0.0	1
Germaine Pratt	3	5	0.0	1
Chidobe Awuzie	2	2	0.0	2
Larry Ogunjobi	3	1	1.0	0
B.J. Hill	2	1	1.0	0
Joe Bachie	2	1	0.0	0
Cam Sample	2	1	0.0	0
D.J. Reader	3	0	1.0	0
Tre Flowers	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -2.5
Closing total: 49
SF moneyline: -130
CIN moneyline: +117

49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 49 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: SF 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Zac Taylor