2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Ford Field

Arizona Cardinals

Detroit LionsWinner

ARI -13 upsetU 48 ✓DomeCardinals closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 30–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 8:30, ARI +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 8:30ARI — DET ARI ball · 2nd & 8DET 70%

(8:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 44. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at ARI 6 for 50 yards (6-J.Conner).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 8:30ARI +17% win prob(8:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 44. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at ARI 6 for 50 yards (6-J.Conner).
Q3 · 8:59ARI +14% win prob(8:59) 35-G.Igwebuike right end to ARI 47 for no gain (95-L.Fotu). FUMBLES (95-L.Fotu), RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 44. DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play.
Q2 · 15:00DET +13% win prob(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:29ARI +10% win prob(8:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 44 for -12 yards (53-C.Harris).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Lions
Offensive plays	73	62
Total yards	399 (edge)	338
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	41%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.48 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

23/41, 257 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-14.4 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

21/26, 216 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.5 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Craig ReynoldsRB

26 att, 112 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

6 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

9/12 for 94 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

8/11 for 90 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 18	16	68	8:50	Turnover on downs
2	ARI	DET 41	5	5	2:28	Punt
3	DET	DET 7	9	93	3:49	Touchdown
4	ARI	ARI 25	5	-2	1:37	Punt
5	DET	DET 38	4	8	2:06	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 25	8	24	3:30	Punt
7	DET	DET 21	4	2	1:27	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 39	9	58	4:14	Turnover on downs
9	DET	DET 3	10	67	1:40	Touchdown
10	ARI	ARI 25	2	0	0:19	End of half
11	ARI	ARI 25	10	64	3:38	Turnover on downs
12	DET	DET 25	6	28	2:33	Fumble
13	ARI	ARI 44	2	2	0:34	Interception
14	DET	ARI 6	2	6	0:05	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 17	12	76	4:16	Turnover on downs
16	DET	DET 25	11	41	5:39	Turnover on downs
17	ARI	ARI 31	8	20	1:38	Turnover on downs
18	DET	DET 30	6	19	3:49	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 13	13	87	3:08	Touchdown
20	DET	ARI 46	7	6	1:54	Turnover on downs
21	ARI	ARI 29	12	65	2:46	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 93 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	23/41	257	1	1	2	-14.4
Colt McCoy	6/9	56	0	0	0	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Edmonds	6	53	8.8	2.8
James Conner	8	39	4.9	1.0
Jonathan Ward	1	6	6.0	0.0
Kyler Murray	4	3	0.8	-2.0
Colt McCoy	1	3	3.0	-2.7
Rondale Moore	1	1	1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	9	12	94	1	25%	4.8
Zach Ertz	6	11	74	0	23%	1.5
A.J. Green	4	8	64	0	17%	-6.1
James Conner	2	2	31	0	4%	2.6
Antoine Wesley	3	8	19	0	17%	-7.3
Andy Isabella	1	1	13	0	2%	0.8
Jonathan Ward	1	2	9	0	4%	-0.0
Rondale Moore	3	3	9	0	6%	-2.0
Chase Edmonds	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jalen Thompson	7	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Simmons	6	0	0.0	1
Markus Golden	6	0	1.0	0
Budda Baker	3	2	0.0	0
Chandler Jones	3	2	0.0	1
Antonio Hamilton	3	1	0.0	0
Rashard Lawrence	2	2	0.0	0
Dennis Gardeck	3	1	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	2	2	0.0	1
Zach Allen	1	2	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	21/26	216	3	0	2	13.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Craig Reynolds	26	112	4.3	-2.7
Jermar Jefferson	5	9	1.8	-1.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown	1	5	5.0	-0.1
Godwin Igwebuike	2	0	0.0	-6.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	8	11	90	1	42%	5.9
Josh Reynolds	6	6	68	1	23%	7.4
Kalif Raymond	2	3	20	0	12%	0.9
Shane Zylstra	1	1	16	0	4%	0.9
Godwin Igwebuike	2	2	11	0	8%	0.2
Jason Cabinda	1	1	6	1	4%	1.1
Craig Reynolds	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.5
Brock Wright	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Charles Harris	7	5	1.5	0	0
A.J. Parker	6	0	0.0	0	2
Will Harris	3	2	0.0	0	1
Dean Marlowe	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	4	1	0.0	0	2
Amani Oruwariye	4	1	0.0	1	2
Jessie Lemonier	2	2	0.5	0	0
Derrick Barnes	2	2	0.0	0	0
Brady Breeze	3	0	0.0	0	0
Michael Brockers	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -13
Closing total: 48
ARI moneyline: -634
DET moneyline: +495

Cardinals closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 42 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: ARI 6 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Dan Campbell