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Detroit Lions 30, Cardinals 12 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 8:30, 2nd and 8, on Amani Oruwariye — 16.6 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:30 · 2nd and 8
Amani Oruwariye
Lions
(8:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 44. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at ARI 6 for 50 yards (6-J.Conner).
Dome
Cardinals closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 30–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 8:30, Lions +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.St.LionsQ2 15:00(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.8pts
Godwin IgwebuikeCardinalsQ3 8:59(8:59) 35-G.Igwebuike right end to ARI 47 for no gain (95-L.Fotu). FUMBLES (95-L.Fotu), RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 44. DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play.
14.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.48 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Cardinals at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 45 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Cardinals172 of 182 plays carry both curves
(8:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 44. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at ARI 6 for 50 yards (6-J.Conner).
Swing +16.6 for LionsExpected points +7.74 for LionsThe model had Lions 21 points higher than the market did.play 101
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:30ARI +17% win prob(8:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at DET 44. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at ARI 6 for 50 yards (6-J.Conner).
3rd · 8:59ARI +14% win prob(8:59) 35-G.Igwebuike right end to ARI 47 for no gain (95-L.Fotu). FUMBLES (95-L.Fotu), RECOVERED by ARI-7-B.Murphy at ARI 44. DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play.
2nd · 15:00DET +13% win prob(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:29ARI +10% win prob(8:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 44 for -12 yards (53-C.Harris).
1st · 9:03DET +9% win prob(9:03) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds to ARI 21 for 13 yards (7-B.Murphy).
2nd · 0:31DET +8% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 22 for 6 yards (9-I.Simmons).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Riley Patterson's 37-yard field goal with 6:14 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:14Riley Patterson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+30–3
2nd15:00Amon-Ra St. Brown·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–10
2nd0:24Josh Reynolds·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+70–17
3rd11:26Matt Prater·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–17
3rd8:15Jason Cabinda·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+73–24
3rd3:58Matt Prater·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+36–24
4th13:21Riley Patterson·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+36–27
4th2:51Riley Patterson·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+312–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryLions
Cardinals5–2Lions
399Total yards338
5.5Yards per play5.5
41%Success rate45%
47%Third-down rate46%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays5
23First downs18
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Cardinals: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.05Lions: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Cardinals: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.48Lions: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Cardinals: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.31Lions: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 73 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Lions’s 62 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 5, Lions 4.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.1% in week 14 against 39.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Lions5.6%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.6%, 17.2 points below their season mean of 56.8% and 1.7 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fox kicks+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
3-J.Fox kicks onside 11 yards from DET 35 to DET 46. 59-J.Walker (didn't try to advance) to DET 46 for no gain. PENALTY on DET-19-S.Smith, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DET 46.
Q1 6:10 · Cardinals · Kickoff at DET 35 · gained nothing · +2.24 EP · +9.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 97 yards from the DET 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
736
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.2370%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.5270%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR9-0.620%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.2129%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2243%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0783%
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5-0.1080%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Cardinals0Lions3
Field goal17 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Cardinals 14
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Lions 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Cardinals 43
2nd quarter51 plays
Cardinals0Lions9
Cardinals0Lions10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Lions 46
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 44
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Lions 3
Cardinals0Lions16
Cardinals0Lions17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 3 to the Cardinals 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Cardinals3Lions17
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 11
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cardinals 47
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Cardinals 46
Cardinals3Lions23
Cardinals3Lions24
Touchdown2 plays
Cardinals6Lions24
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Lions 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cardinals 39
4th quarter58 plays
Cardinals6Lions27
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 29
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Lions 30
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Cardinals 49
Cardinals12Lions27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Lions 26
Cardinals12Lions30
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Cardinals 27
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Lions 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -13
Closing total
48
Cardinals moneyline
-634
Lions moneyline
+495
Cardinals closed -13 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 42 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Cardinals 6 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Dan Campbell
3rd · 11:26
ARI +8% win prob
(11:26) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.
2nd · 1:53DET +8% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 8-J.Reynolds ran ob at DET 19 for 15 yards. PENALTY on ARI-55-C.Jones, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DET 19.
Cardinalscategory by categoryLions
Cardinals0
Lions3
