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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 13 at San Francisco 49ers 31. Final.
49ers -9.5 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 15
San Francisco 49ers 31, Falcons 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:09, 2nd and 6, on Kyle Pitts — 16.2 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:09 · 2nd and 6
Kyle Pitts
Falcons
(14:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to SF 1 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). Caught SF 10. 9-YAC
49ers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 18.
San Francisco 49ers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:09, Falcons +16.2% win probability on one snap.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matt Ryan49ersQ1 12:32(12:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 8-K.Pitts [91-A.Armstead].
6.8pts
Russell GageFalconsQ2 4:06(4:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-R.Gage for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-20-A.Thomas, Defensive Holding, declined.
8.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.23 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.36 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Falcons149 of 158 plays carry both curves
(14:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to SF 1 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). Caught SF 10. 9-YAC
Swing −16.2 for 49ersExpected points −1.47 for 49ersThe model had Falcons 32 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:09SF +16% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to SF 1 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). Caught SF 10. 9-YAC
2nd · 4:06SF +9% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-R.Gage for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-20-A.Thomas, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 12:32ATL +7% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 8-K.Pitts [91-A.Armstead].
3rd · 13:28ATL +7% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 36 for -6 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa) [97-N.Bosa], RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner at ATL 38.
1st · 11:08SF +7% win prob(11:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to SF 49, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.
1st · 13:15ATL +6% win prob(13:15) 84-C.Patterson right end to SF 1 for no gain (91-A.Armstead).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deebo Samuel's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 0:39 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:17Younghoe Koo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Harris+33–0
1st1:25Robbie Gould·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+33–3
3rd6:32Younghoe Koo·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Harris+313–24
3rd1:20Jauan Jennings·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+713–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by category49ers
Falcons0–849ers
275Total yards397
4.7Yards per play7.1
33%Success rate50%
38%Third-down rate55%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays11
11First downs22
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Falcons: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.2949ers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Falcons: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.4849ers: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Falcons: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.1449ers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 58 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against 49ers’s 56 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, 49ers 5.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's sack or hit rate, 25.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.4% in week 4.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.8% in week 14 against 64.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.2 pts in week 14 against +3.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
49ers25.6%
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 1.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Jalen MayfieldG · Every snap100%60 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Full-time98%59 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Full-time98%59 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Full-time98%59 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Full-time98%59 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time82%49 snaps
14Russell GageWR · Full-time80%48 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
4Tajae SharpeWR · Heavy rotation55%33 snaps
28Mike DavisRB · Rotational45%27 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Rotational42%25 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational28%17 snaps
85Lee SmithTE · Situational22%13 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Situational12%7 snaps
66Colby GossettG · Situational7%4 snaps
30Qadree OllisonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
88Frank DarbyWR · Situational2%1 snap
69Jason SpriggsT · Situational2%1 snap
67Drew DalmanC · Situational2%1 snap
15Feleipe FranksQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Jonathan BullardDEMarlon DavidsonDTJohn CominskyDTJosh AndrewsGJosh RosenQB
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%57 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillG · Every snap100%57 snaps
66Tom ComptonT · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Every snap100%57 snaps
50Alex MackC · Every snap100%57 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time98%56 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time96%55 snaps
22Jeffery WilsonRB · Full-time88%50 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time81%46 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation53%30 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Rotational44%25 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational23%13 snaps
81Trent SherfieldWR · Situational9%5 snaps
23Jamycal HastyRB · Situational5%3 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational2%1 snap
17Travis BenjaminWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Maurice HurstDTAzeez Al-ShaairMLBDre GreenlawOLBElijah MitchellRBColton McKivitzT
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←49ers→
Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 11-B.Aiyuk [97-G.Jarrett]. PENALTY on ATL-22-F.Moreau, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play.
Q2 2:00 · 49ers · 3rd & 7 at ATL 42 · gained nothing · +1.74 EP · +12.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 82 yards from the SF 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
42%
Yards
672
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.2263%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.3130%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.5661%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.1156%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0479%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.020%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7750%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3760%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Fumble lost1 play
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the 49ers 12 to the 49ers 1
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the 49ers 10
Falcons349ers0
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 30
Falcons349ers3
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the Falcons 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Falcons 29
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Falcons 45
Falcons349ers9
Falcons349ers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Falcons 6
Falcons949ers10
Falcons1049ers10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the 49ers 15
Falcons1049ers16
Falcons1049ers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Falcons 10
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 42
Falcons1049ers23
Falcons1049ers24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 5
Falcons1349ers24
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the 49ers 4
Falcons1349ers30
Falcons1349ers31
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Falcons 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 33
4th quarter42 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 24
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Falcons 34 to the 49ers 8
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 10
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the 49ers 1
Drive ended2 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the 49ers 18
Punt12 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -9.5
Closing total
48
Falcons moneyline
+319
49ers moneyline
-380
49ers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Falcons 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Kyle Shanahan
2nd · 2:00
SF +6% win prob
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 11-B.Aiyuk [97-G.Jarrett]. PENALTY on ATL-22-F.Moreau, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play.
2nd · 0:39SF +5% win prob(:39) 19-D.Samuel left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
