For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q1 14:09, 2nd and 6, on Kyle Pitts — 16.2 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:09, Falcons +16.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:09 · 2nd and 6
Kyle Pitts
Falcons
(14:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to SF 1 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). Caught SF 10. 9-YAC
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.23 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.36 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(14:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to SF 1 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner). Caught SF 10. 9-YAC
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Deebo Samuel's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 0:39 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 58 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against 49ers’s 56 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, 49ers 5.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate, 25.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.8% in week 14 against 64.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
ATL's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.2 pts in week 14 against +3.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons3.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 58 snaps
49ers-6.5 ptsright on their number · +0.1 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →Falcons64.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.9 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 42 early downs
49ers37.8%inside their normal wobble · −11.6 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Falcons50.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.8 vs their 37.2%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
49ers0.0%inside their normal wobble · −23.3 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 33%
Tendencies room →Falcons12.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
49ers25.6%leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
SF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.6%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 1.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
19/32, 236 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.9 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · SF
18/23, 235 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
12.1 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kyle Juszczyk banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell GageWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.1 | +3.6 | 80% | 79% | 40% | 44% | 8/12, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Jeffery WilsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.9 | +3.7 | 88% | 83% | 8% | 0% | 21 car, 110 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 18.9 | +4.3 | 81% | 92% | 21% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd · 6 car, 29 yd, 1 TD · 4/5, 60 yd |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.3 | +5.0 | 96% | 100% | 25% | 34% | 6/6, 93 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +2.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 235 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 4 yd |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 13.4 | −13.1 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 19/32, 236 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 20 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.8 | +0.4 | 44% | 63% | 25% | 27% | 3/6, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 11.7 | −1.2 | 82% | 77% | 23% | 35% | 4/7, 77 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 8.2 | +6.0 | 53% | 38% | 4% | 3% | 1 car, 6 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +3.9 | 62% | 51% | 7% | 19% | 2/2, 53 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −0.4 | 98% | 100% | 8% | 17% | 1/2, 36 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Committee Back | 4.3 | −10.9 | 62% | 51% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 18 yd · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.1 | 42% | 38% | 7% | 0% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Jamycal HastyRB | 2.6 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mike DavisRB | 2.1 | −4.1 | 45% | 49% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 21 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Qadree OllisonRB | 1.7 | −1.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Lee SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.4 | 22% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Christian BlakeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.2 | 55% | 54% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brian HillRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 23% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| River CracraftWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 11-B.Aiyuk [97-G.Jarrett]. PENALTY on ATL-22-F.Moreau, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at ATL 42 - No Play.
Q2 2:00 · 49ers · 3rd & 7 at ATL 42 · gained nothing · +1.74 EP · +12.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 82 yards from the SF 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons3
49ers0Falcons349ers3Falcons349ers9Falcons349ers10Falcons949ers10Falcons1049ers10Falcons1049ers16Falcons1049ers17Falcons1049ers23Falcons1049ers24Falcons1349ers24Falcons1349ers30Falcons1349ers31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/32 | 236 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −6.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 8 | 12 | 91 | 1 | 40% | +5.4 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 23% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foyesade Oluokun | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Pennel |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/23 | 235 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +12.1 |
| Deebo Samuel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_ATL_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| 11 |
| 18 |
| 1.6 |
| 0 |
| −8.0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| +0.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7% | +3.9 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Mike Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.5 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.3 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Deion Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Rush | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adetokunbo Ogundeji | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 21 | 110 | 5.2 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 6 | 93 | 0 | 25% | +7.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 21% | +2.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 8% | +2.0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 25% | +2.8 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arik Armstead | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Norman | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcell Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Waun Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaquiski Tartt | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Willis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
