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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 31, Panthers 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:14, 2nd and 10, on Dawson Knox — 5.0 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:14 · 2nd and 10
Dawson Knox
Panthers
(13:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 47 for 7 yards (9-S.Gilmore). PENALTY on BUF-75-D.Williams, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 40 - No Play.
30°F
Bills closed -14 and covered, winning by 17.
Buffalo Bills 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:14, Panthers +5.0% win probability on one snap.
5.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ1 13:29(13:29) 10-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 40 for 17 yards (4-J.Carter).
4.8pts
Cam NewtonBillsQ1 8:32(8:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Snead.
4.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Panthers172 of 187 plays carry both curves
(13:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 47 for 7 yards (9-S.Gilmore). PENALTY on BUF-75-D.Williams, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 40 - No Play.
Swing −5.0 for BillsExpected points −0.74 for BillsThe model had Panthers 32 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:14CAR +5% win prob(13:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 47 for 7 yards (9-S.Gilmore). PENALTY on BUF-75-D.Williams, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 40 - No Play.
1st · 13:29CAR +5% win prob(13:29) 10-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 40 for 17 yards (4-J.Carter).
1st · 8:32CAR +5% win prob(8:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Snead.
1st · 12:54CAR +4% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Beasley [93-B.Roy].
1st · 4:29BUF +4% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left guard to CAR 35 for 8 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver), recovered by CAR-2-Dj.Moore at CAR 40. 2-Dj.Moore to CAR 41 for 1 yard (39-L.Wallace).
1st · 10:20BUF +4% win prob(10:20) 30-C.Hubbard right end to BUF 25 for 21 yards (30-D.Jackson, 21-J.Poyer). BUF-30-D.Jackson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. D.Jackson walks off.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Devin Singletary's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 14:20 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:20Devin Singletary·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Bills ahead 5–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Panthers: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.11Bills: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.29Panthers: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.26Bills: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Panthers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 73 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Bills’s 63 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Bills 5.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 4 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 15.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 80.0% in week 14 against 54.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills13.0%
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 41.6 points above their season mean of 33.4% and 1.6 times their own 25.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass−8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Snead.
Q1 8:32 · Panthers · 4th & 9 at BUF 24 · gained nothing · -3.48 EP · −8.1% win probability
170 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 74 yards from the BUF 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
589
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.3863%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1370%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4550%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2336%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0340%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Panthers 30
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Bills 22
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 31
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 26 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from midfield to the Panthers 27
2nd quarter56 plays
Panthers0Bills6
Panthers0Bills7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 16
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
Panthers0Bills13
Panthers0Bills14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Panthers 11
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 48
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 22
Panthers6Bills14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 4
Panthers8Bills14
Panthers8Bills17
Field goal17 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Panthers 8
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Panthers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Panthers 34
Panthers8Bills23
Panthers8Bills24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Panthers 18
The period ended19 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Bills 15
4th quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 16
Panthers14Bills24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Bills 23
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Bills 45
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Bills 46
Panthers14Bills30
Panthers14Bills31
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Panthers 14
Intercepted6 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Bills 40
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Pantherscategory by categoryBills
Panthers0
Bills6
