2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · New Era Field

Carolina Panthers

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -14 ✓O 43 ✓30°FBills closed -14 and covered, winning by 17.

Buffalo Bills 31–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:14, CAR +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:14CAR — BUF BUF ball · 2nd & 10BUF 95%

(13:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 47 for 7 yards (9-S.Gilmore). PENALTY on BUF-75-D.Williams, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 40 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:14CAR +5% win prob(13:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox pushed ob at BUF 47 for 7 yards (9-S.Gilmore). PENALTY on BUF-75-D.Williams, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 40 - No Play.
Q1 · 13:29CAR +5% win prob(13:29) 10-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 40 for 17 yards (4-J.Carter).
Q1 · 8:32CAR +5% win prob(8:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Snead.
Q1 · 12:54CAR +4% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Beasley [93-B.Roy].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Bills
Offensive plays	73	63
Total yards	277	314 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	38%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	6/17	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	18	18
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	1	1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

19/34, 210 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

6.9 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

18/38, 156 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-15.2 expected points added · -15.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

22 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

15 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

5/7 for 85 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 11.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Ameer AbdullahRB

4/4 for 48 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 28	5	2	1:42	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 40	4	-3	1:15	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 30	8	46	3:34	Turnover on downs
4	BUF	BUF 24	4	17	2:35	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 26	7	24	3:53	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	50	7	50	2:48	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 25	5	-8	1:56	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 43	6	42	2:36	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 18	11	25	4:27	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 11	4	6	2:29	Interception
11	CAR	BUF 37	4	39	0:57	Touchdown
12	BUF	BUF 29	12	58	1:48	Turnover on downs
13	BUF	BUF 26	8	31	2:38	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 15	7	19	2:48	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 26	11	59	3:42	Touchdown
16	CAR	CAR 25	16	59	5:57	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 11	5	6	2:32	Punt
18	CAR	BUF 43	5	43	1:22	Touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 43	5	2	1:12	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 31	9	15	3:38	Turnover on downs
21	BUF	CAR 46	10	46	4:04	Touchdown
22	CAR	CAR 32	5	13	1:11	Interception
23	BUF	BUF 44	2	0	0:56	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 59 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	18/38	156	1	1	4	-15.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Newton	15	71	4.7	1	1.5
Chuba Hubbard	8	40	5.0	0	-1.5
Robbie Chosen	2	33	16.5	0	2.4
Ameer Abdullah	4	7	1.8	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ameer Abdullah	4	4	48	1	11%	3.7
D.J. Moore	6	11	48	0	31%	-1.0
Robbie Chosen	3	8	29	0	22%	-2.7
Brandon Zylstra	2	4	17	0	11%	1.9
Tommy Tremble	1	4	8	0	11%	-0.8
Ian Thomas	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.4
Chuba Hubbard	1	1	1	0	3%	-1.3
Willie Snead	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.5
Giovanni Ricci	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Terrace Marshall	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jermaine Carter	2	5	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	4	2	0.0	1	1
C.J. Henderson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	2	3	2.5	0	0
Haason Reddick	2	2	0.5	0	0
Myles Hartsfield	2	2	0.0	0	0
Marquis Haynes	1	2	0.0	0	0
Sean Chandler	0	3	0.0	0	1
Juston Burris	2	0	0.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	19/34	210	3	1	4	6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	22	86	3.9	1	-3.3
Josh Allen	3	24	8.0	0	3.1
Isaiah McKenzie	1	8	8.0	0	1.3
Matt Breida	1	1	1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gabe Davis	5	7	85	2	23%	11.0
Dawson Knox	4	5	38	0	16%	2.4
Cole Beasley	4	8	35	0	26%	-2.7
Stefon Diggs	4	7	35	1	23%	0.4
Devin Singletary	1	1	10	0	3%	0.1
Isaiah McKenzie	1	2	7	0	6%	0.0
Tommy Sweeney	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	3	3	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	4	2	0.0	1
Tyler Matakevich	3	2	0.0	0
Dane Jackson	3	2	0.0	2
Jordan Poyer	2	3	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	3	1	1.0	0
Levi Wallace	4	0	0.0	1
Harrison Phillips	2	1	0.0	1
Carlos Basham	2	1	0.0	0
Jerry Hughes	1	2	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -14
Closing total: 43
CAR moneyline: +562
BUF moneyline: -739

Bills closed -14 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 43; the game landed 45 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 30°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CAR 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Sean McDermott