2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -3 upsetU 45 ✓19 mph windBroncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 15–10. Biggest swing: Q4 10:39, CIN +26% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:39CIN — DEN DEN ball · 2nd & 9DEN 53%

(10:39) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock left tackle to CIN 11 for -2 yards (90-K.Kareem). FUMBLES (90-K.Kareem), RECOVERED by CIN-90-K.Kareem at CIN 11. 90-K.Kareem to CIN 37 for 26 yards (3-D.Lock). FUMBLES (3-D.Lock), touched at CI

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:39CIN +26% win prob(10:39) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock left tackle to CIN 11 for -2 yards (90-K.Kareem). FUMBLES (90-K.Kareem), RECOVERED by CIN-90-K.Kareem at CIN 11. 90-K.Kareem to CIN 37 for 26 yards (3-D.Lock). FUMBLES (3-D.Lock), touched at CIN 38, RECOVERED by DEN-72-G.Bolles at CIN 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock left tackle to CIN 11 for -2 yards (90-K.Kareem). FUMBLES (90-K.Kareem), RECOVERED by CIN-90-K.Kareem at CIN 11. 90-K.Kareem to CIN 15 for 4 yards (3-D.Lock). CIN-90-K.Kareem was injured during the play.
Q3 · 0:41DEN +21% win prob(:41) (No Huddle) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 13:33DEN +13% win prob(13:33) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on CIN-20-E.Apple, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q3 · 1:21DEN +12% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 81-T.Patrick for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-81-T.Patrick, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Broncos
Offensive plays	51	71
Total yards	250	292 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	35%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	4/13	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Broncos outgained Bengals 292–250 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

15/22, 157 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.7 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

12/22, 98 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-10.7 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

15 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

17 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

5/6 for 96 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Albert OkwuegbunamTE

3/4 for 58 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	5	8	1:00	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 10	7	19	3:31	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 32	8	33	3:55	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 25	8	8	2:47	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 10	4	4	1:27	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 34	4	6	1:04	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 16	7	16	3:36	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 32	5	32	1:56	Turnover on downs
9	CIN	CIN 25	5	14	2:43	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 5	6	14	2:19	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 38	4	-3	2:12	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 20	12	42	3:21	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 41	2	19	0:09	Turnover on downs
14	DEN	DEN 25	8	12	3:36	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 20	11	52	5:03	Turnover on downs
16	DEN	DEN 25	11	75	5:06	Touchdown
17	CIN	CIN 32	4	68	0:45	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 25	12	51	4:56	Fumble
19	CIN	CIN 15	7	19	3:49	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 5	7	42	3:05	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 22	7	20	2:36	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 25	4	-9	1:00	Turnover on downs
23	CIN	DEN 11	1	0	0:04	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	15/22	157	1	0	3	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	17	58	3.4	-2.2
Samaje Perine	4	30	7.5	0.6
Joe Burrow	5	25	5.0	3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	5	6	96	1	29%	4.0
Tee Higgins	2	3	23	0	14%	1.4
C.J. Uzomah	3	4	18	0	19%	-0.2
Samaje Perine	2	2	13	0	10%	-0.8
Ja'Marr Chase	1	4	3	0	19%	-3.8
Joe Mixon	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.5
Drew Sample	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Germaine Pratt	8	6	0.5	0
Vonn Bell	6	0	0.0	0
Joe Bachie	5	1	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	4	1	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	2	3	0.0	0
D.J. Reader	4	1	0.0	0
Markus Bailey	1	4	0.5	1
Mike Hilton	4	0	0.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	3	1.5	0
Trey Hendrickson	1	2	0.5	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	12/22	98	0	0	2	-10.7
Drew Lock	6/12	88	1	0	1	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	15	72	4.8	1.9
Melvin Gordon	15	53	3.5	-1.9
Teddy Bridgewater	3	10	3.3	1.7
Drew Lock	1	-2	-2.0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Albert Okwuegbunam	3	4	58	0	13%	5.4
Noah Fant	5	6	57	0	19%	0.2
Tim Patrick	3	5	42	1	16%	3.1
Courtland Sutton	2	7	12	0	22%	-6.9
Javonte Williams	4	4	9	0	13%	-2.7
Melvin Gordon	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Jerry Jeudy	0	4	0	0	13%	-2.0
Kendall Hinton	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Baron Browning	6	4	0.0	0
Jonas Griffith	7	1	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	3	2	0.0	0
Jonathon Cooper	3	2	0.5	0
Justin Simmons	2	2	1.5	0
Bradley Chubb	1	3	0.0	1
Mike Purcell	2	1	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	1	1	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	2	0	1.0	0
Bryce Callahan	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -3
Closing total: 45
CIN moneyline: +140
DEN moneyline: -155

Broncos closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 25 — under by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CIN 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Vic Fangio

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.