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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q1 6:51, 3rd and 5, on Jourdan Lewis — 10.2 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:51 · 3rd and 5
Jourdan Lewis
Cowboys
(6:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle intended for 3-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 26-J.Lewis (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence] at NYG 31. 26-J.Lewis pushed ob at NYG 13 for 18 yards (28-D.Booker).
Dallas Cowboys 21–6. Biggest swing: Q1 6:51, Cowboys +10.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
10.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 5 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(6:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle intended for 3-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 26-J.Lewis (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence] at NYG 31. 26-J.Lewis pushed ob at NYG 13 for 18 yards (28-D.Booker).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ezekiel Elliott's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 6:37 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Ezekiel Elliott13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+66–0
Dalton Schultz1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescott · kick no good, hit right upright+621–67 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryGiants
Cowboys ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 68 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Giants’s 61 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Giants 2.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 14 against 60.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys2.1 ptsright on their number · +1.2 vs their 0.9 pts, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 68 snaps
Giants-11.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −9.9 vs their -1.9 pts, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 94%
Tendencies room →Cowboys53.7%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 57.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 54 early downs
Giants54.5%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 57.7%, and they swing ±14.0 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 141%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys0.0%leaned — took the kick · −44.2 vs their 44.2%, and they swing ±38.1 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Giants60.0%leaned — went for it · +31.0 vs their 29.0%, and they swing ±26.1 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 31%
Tendencies room →Cowboys10.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Giants15.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 31.0 points above their season mean of 29.0% and 1.2 times their own 26.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 2 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 2
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
28/37, 217 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
0.4 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
13/24, 99 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-14.4 expected points added · -12.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Dalton Schultz banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton SchultzTE · Featured Receiver | 20.7 | +5.4 | 86% | 95% | 22% | 23% | 8/8, 67 yd, 1 TD |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB · Committee Back | 16.2 | −2.3 | 62% | 63% | 11% | 0% | 16 car, 52 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 20 yd |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 11.7 | +1.7 | 41% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 12 car, 74 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | −3.5 | 69% | 73% | 24% | 26% | 6/9, 50 yd |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 10.6 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/37, 217 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, -1 yd |
| Devontae BookerRB | 10.2 | +3.4 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 2% | 8 car, 74 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.4 | −8.6 | 59% | 54% | 22% | 0% | 15 car, 50 yd · 4/8, 24 yd |
| Kenny GolladayWR · Featured Receiver | 8.3 | −6.2 | 90% | 97% | 22% | 40% | 3/8, 53 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | −0.3 | 87% | 92% | 14% | 11% | 4/5, 33 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −3.4 | 92% | 95% | 14% | 38% | 3/5, 32 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −1.0 | 62% | 78% | 8% | 20% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Jeremy SprinkleTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +0.6 | 24% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −5.0 | 81% | 78% | 17% | 19% | 2/6, 15 yd |
| Jake FrommQB | 3.3 | −2.3 | 21% | — | 0% | — | 6/12, 82 yd |
| Amari CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −5.1 | 93% | 98% | 14% | 13% | 2/5, 8 yd |
| Collin JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle RudolphTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 43% | 24% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Malik TurnerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Corey ClementRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Pharoh CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alex BachmanWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mike GlennonQB · Starter QB | -2.0 | −10.1 | 79% | — | 0% | — | 13/24, 99 yd, 3 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle intended for 3-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 26-J.Lewis (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence] at NYG 31. 26-J.Lewis pushed ob at NYG 13 for 18 yards (28-D.Booker).
Q1 6:51 · Giants · 3rd & 5 at NYG 29 · gained nothing · -5.58 EP · −16.4% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 84 yards from the NYG 7 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cowboys6
Giants0Cowboys6Giants3Cowboys9Giants3Cowboys12Giants3Cowboys15Giants3Cowboys15Giants6Cowboys21Giants6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/37 | 217 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 8 | 8 | 67 | 1 | 22% | +5.0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 24% | +2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damontae Kazee | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 13/24 | 99 | 0 | 3 | 0 | −14.4 |
| Jake Fromm | 6/12 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0.6 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_DAL_NYG
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -11.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 43; the game landed 27 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 14% | +0.6 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 5% | +1.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −2.6 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Carlos Watkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Gallimore | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Demarcus Lawrence | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Brown | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Diggs | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Quinton Bohanna | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 0 | +3.8 |
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 22% | −4.0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 14% | +1.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 8 | 24 | 0 | 22% | −1.9 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8% | +0.3 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 17% | −8.0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −4.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Love | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tae Crowder | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarren Williams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Ryan | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Carter | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Ojulari | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Roche | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Benardrick McKinney | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Ragland | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
