2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

Baltimore Ravens

GB -9.5 no coverO 45.5 ✓Packers closed -9.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Green Bay Packers 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:42, GB +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:42GB — BAL BAL ballGB 71%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-T.Huntley pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:42GB +20% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-T.Huntley pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 · 0:47BAL +11% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:44GB +11% win prob(7:44) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at GB 7 for -4 yards (59-D.Campbell).
Q1 · 13:53BAL +10% win prob(13:53) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at GB 29 for 43 yards (31-A.Amos).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Ravens
Offensive plays	57	67
Total yards	348	355 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.36 (edge)	0.21
Success rate	60% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	63%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.55 (edge)	0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.27 (edge)
Third downs	5/9 (edge)	7/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

23/31, 268 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

19.2 expected points added · +13.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

28/40, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Tyler HuntleyQB

13 att, 73 yds, 2 TD

9.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

13 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

10/13 for 136 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 15.1 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

5/7 for 98 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 23	15	75	7:22	Turnover on downs
2	GB	GB 7	4	6	1:33	Punt
3	BAL	GB 45	8	45	3:32	Touchdown
4	GB	GB 16	10	80	4:43	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 27	13	58	5:39	Touchdown
6	GB	GB 23	13	77	6:02	Touchdown
7	BAL	BAL 37	5	6	0:31	Punt
8	GB	GB 26	5	15	0:31	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 20	1	0	0:07	End of half
10	GB	GB 20	15	68	7:20	Touchdown
11	BAL	BAL 25	10	60	4:20	Turnover on downs
12	GB	GB 12	13	88	5:26	Touchdown
13	BAL	BAL 25	5	-1	0:58	Turnover on downs
14	GB	BAL 29	5	18	2:30	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	BAL 25	14	63	4:39	Touchdown
16	GB	GB 18	5	-4	2:23	Punt
17	BAL	GB 49	8	49	1:42	Touchdown
18	GB	BAL 40	3	0	0:42	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	23/31	268	3	0	3	19.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	13	58	4.5	0	0.2
A.J. Dillon	7	22	3.1	1	0.3
Aaron Rodgers	4	11	2.8	0	-1.4
Allen Lazard	1	5	5.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	5	7	98	1	23%	8.5
Davante Adams	6	7	44	1	23%	3.6
Marcedes Lewis	3	3	40	0	10%	2.7
Allen Lazard	2	4	23	0	13%	1.9
Tyler Davis	1	1	22	0	3%	1.9
Josiah Deguara	3	5	16	0	16%	0.7
A.J. Dillon	1	1	13	0	3%	1.4
Aaron Jones	2	2	12	1	6%	1.9
Juwann Winfree	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	5	5	1.0	0
Rasul Douglas	8	0	0.0	0
Eric Stokes	7	0	0.0	1
Darnell Savage	5	1	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	5	1	0.0	1
Krys Barnes	3	1	0.0	0
Tedarrell Slaton	1	2	0.0	0
Preston Smith	2	1	0.0	0
Kevin King	2	1	0.0	0
Chandon Sullivan	2	0	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Huntley	28/40	215	2	0	1	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyler Huntley	13	73	5.6	2	9.5
Latavius Murray	7	48	6.9	0	2.1
Devonta Freeman	6	22	3.7	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	10	13	136	2	33%	15.1
Marquise Brown	10	14	43	0	36%	-2.9
Devin Duvernay	3	3	13	0	8%	0.5
James Proche	1	1	8	0	3%	1.5
Tylan Wallace	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.9
Rashod Bateman	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.6
Latavius Murray	1	3	3	0	8%	-4.9
Devonta Freeman	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Queen	10	2	0.0	0
Geno Stone	3	4	0.0	0
Josh Bynes	3	3	1.0	0
Kevon Seymour	5	0	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	1	3	0.0	1
Justin Houston	2	2	0.5	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	1	1.0	0
Anthony Levine	3	0	0.0	0
Robert Jackson	1	1	0.0	0
Chris Board	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -9.5
Closing total: 45.5
GB moneyline: -354
BAL moneyline: +299

Packers closed -9.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 61 — over by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: GB 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs John Harbaugh