For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Packers165 of 175 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:42Packers 31 — Ravens 30BAL ballGB 71%
Packers 71%Ravens 29%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-T.Huntley pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing −20.2 for RavensExpected points −0.95 for RavensThe model had Ravens 8 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:42GB +20% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-T.Huntley pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:47BAL +11% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:44GB +11% win prob(7:44) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at GB 7 for -4 yards (59-D.Campbell).
1st · 13:53BAL +10% win prob(13:53) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at GB 29 for 43 yards (31-A.Amos).
4th · 3:19GB +8% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 14 for -9 yards (92-J.Madubuike).
1st · 6:15GB +7% win prob(6:15) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 40, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-24-I.Yiadom. PENALTY on GB-24-I.Yiadom, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 40.
3rd · 7:46
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Jones's 9-yard touchdown catch with 7:46 left in the 3rd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th0:47Tyler Huntley·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+631–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryRavens
Packers4–3Ravens
348Total yards355
6.1Yards per play5.3
60%Success rate49%
56%Third-down rate54%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays7
24First downs23
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.36Packers: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.21Ravens: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Packers: +0.55 expected points added per play
+0.19Ravens: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.27Ravens: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 57 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 67 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Ravens 6.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs 0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 4.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 7.9% in week 9.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 14.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−2.01× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Ravens8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.0%, 9.3 points below their season mean of 13.3% and 2.0 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
73Yosuah NijmanT · Every snap100%62 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%62 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%62 snaps
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%62 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
79Dennis KellyT · Every snap100%62 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time92%57 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Heavy rotation79%49 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation66%41 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Heavy rotation50%31 snaps
28A.J. DillonRB · Rotational37%23 snaps
84Tyler DavisTE · Rotational31%19 snaps
88Juwann WinfreeWR · Situational24%15 snaps
86Malik TaylorWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Jack HeflinDTVernon ScottFSShawn DavisSSBilly TurnerTDavid BakhtiariTDominique DafneyTEEquanimeous St. BrownWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jake HansonCCole Van LanenGJordan LoveQB
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%70 snaps
66Ben ClevelandG · Every snap100%70 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Bradley BozemanC · Every snap100%70 snaps
2Tyler HuntleyQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
12Rashod BatemanWR · Full-time93%65 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Full-time89%62 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Full-time80%56 snaps
62David SharpeT · Heavy rotation67%47 snaps
33Devonta FreemanRB · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational41%29 snaps
74Tyre PhillipsG · Rotational33%23 snaps
85Eric TomlinsonTE · Rotational31%22 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational31%22 snaps
86Nick BoyleTE · Rotational29%20 snaps
11James ProcheWR · Situational23%16 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational20%14 snaps
84Josh OliverTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jimmy SmithCBCalais CampbellDEPatrick RicardFBPatrick MekariGBen PowersGLamar JacksonQBSammy WatkinsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Huntley pass−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-T.Huntley pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:42 · Ravens · — at GB 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −21.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 89 yards from the GB 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
49%
Yards
700
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1667%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3264%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.0757%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.4750%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Packers 3
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Packers 13
Packers0Ravens6
Packers0Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Packers 8
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 16 to the Packers 34
2nd quarter47 plays
Packers6Ravens7
Packers7Ravens7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Ravens 2
Packers7Ravens13
Packers7Ravens14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Packers 9
Packers13Ravens14
Packers14Ravens14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Ravens 2
Punt6 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 26 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Packers20Ravens14
Packers21Ravens14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Ravens 9
Packers21Ravens17
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Packers 15
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 49
4th quarter56 plays
Packers27Ravens17
Packers28Ravens17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Ravens 11
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 30
Packers31Ravens17
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Ravens 5
Packers31Ravens23
Packers31Ravens24
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Packers 3
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 23
Packers31Ravens30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Packers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -9.5
Closing total
45.5
Packers moneyline
-354
Ravens moneyline
+299
Packers closed -9.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 61 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Packers 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs John Harbaugh
BAL +6% win prob
(7:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:26BAL +6% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to BAL 25 for 25 yards (38-K.Seymour, 21-B.Stephens).
