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2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
TexansHouston30
BY 14final margin
JaguarsJacksonville16
Houston Texans 30 at Jacksonville Jaguars 16. Final.
Jaguars -6 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 15
Houston Texans 30, Jaguars 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:42 — 18.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:42
Unnamed on the sheet
Texans
15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.
O 40 ✓
Jaguars closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 30–16. Biggest swing: Q1 1:42, Texans +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trevor LawrenceTexansQ3 13:39(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 10 for -11 yards (95-D.Rivers).
10.7pts
Tyson CampbellJaguarsQ4 13:30(13:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at HOU 25. 32-T.Campbell to HOU 22 for 3 yards (88-J.Akins).
16.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Texans won this one — 10 of 18 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 14 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Texans at 1 giveaway.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Texans165 of 178 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 1:42Texans 13 — Jaguars 3HOU ballJAX 57%
Texans 43%Jaguars 57%
15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.
Swing −18.6 for JaguarsExpected points −5.78 for JaguarsThe model had Texans 16 points higher than the market did.play 32
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:42JAX +19% win prob15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.
4th · 13:30HOU +17% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at HOU 25. 32-T.Campbell to HOU 22 for 3 yards (88-J.Akins).
3rd · 13:39HOU +11% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 10 for -11 yards (95-D.Rivers).
2nd · 0:29HOU +8% win prob(:29) (No Huddle) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (43-N.Hewitt; 92-C.Smith).
3rd · 12:14JAX +8% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 2-P.Dorsett to JAX 11 for 33 yards (26-S.Griffin).
2nd · 0:12JAX +8% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 44 for 12 yards (5-R.Ford).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandin Cooks's 22-yard touchdown catch with 6:46 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:46Brandin Cooks·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis MillsLead never changed again+77–0
1st1:47Matthew Wright·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+37–3
1st1:42Tremon Smith·98-yd return TD98-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+714–3
2nd3:11Ka'imi Fairbairn·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+317–10
2nd0:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+320–10
3rd10:44Ka'imi Fairbairn·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+323–10
3rd4:52Matthew Wright·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+323–13
4th11:22Matthew Wright·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+323–16
4th2:32Brandin Cooks·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+730–16
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Texans3–6Jaguars
281Total yards296
4.9Yards per play4.6
35%Success rate38%
56%Third-down rate21%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays6
12First downs18
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Jaguars ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Texans: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Texans: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.12Jaguars: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Texans: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.01Jaguars: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Jaguars 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.3 pts in week 14 against −8.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 83.3% in week 14 against 58.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Jaguars9.7%
right on their number · −3.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.6 pts, 6.5 points below their season mean of -2.0 pts and 1.1 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
67Charlie HeckT · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%59 snaps
74Max ScharpingG · Every snap100%59 snaps
72Geron ChristianT · Every snap100%59 snaps
68Justin BrittC · Every snap100%59 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Full-time83%49 snaps
85Pharaoh BrownTE · Heavy rotation76%45 snaps
28Rex BurkheadRB · Heavy rotation64%38 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Heavy rotation64%38 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation61%36 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational34%20 snaps
83Antony AuclairTE · Rotational31%18 snaps
84Jordan VeasyWR · Rotational25%15 snaps
2Phillip DorsettWR · Rotational25%15 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Situational20%12 snaps
26Royce FreemanRB · Situational15%9 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jimmy MorelandCBJonathan GreenardDEDeshaun WatsonQBJustin ReidSSPaul QuessenberryTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Wright kicks+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q1 1:42 · Texans · Kickoff at JAX 35 · gained nothing · +5.78 EP · +16.5% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 79 yards from the JAX 17 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
36%
Yards
577
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0361%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1255%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2544%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2760%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Texans6Jaguars0
Texans7Jaguars0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 22
Texans7Jaguars3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Texans 4
Texans13Jaguars3
Texans14Jaguars3
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 37
2nd quarter46 plays
Texans14Jaguars9
Texans14Jaguars10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Texans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 20
Texans17Jaguars10
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Jaguars 34
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 38
Texans20Jaguars10
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Jaguars 33
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Jaguars 21
Texans23Jaguars10
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Jaguars 7
Texans23Jaguars13
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 20
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 44
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 4 to the Texans 13
4th quarter52 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 17
Texans23Jaguars16
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 17
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 39
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 20
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Jaguars 37
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 4 to the Jaguars 9
Texans29Jaguars16
Texans30Jaguars16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Jaguars 43
The period ended14 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -6
Closing total
40
Texans moneyline
+224
Jaguars moneyline
-257
Jaguars closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 46 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the south-west; 0.04 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Texans 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
David Culley vs Darrell Bevell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 13:38
JAX +7% win prob
(13:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to JAX 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-96-A.Gotsis, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 32 - No Play.
1st · 10:26JAX +7% win prob(10:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 13-B.Cooks to JAX 41 for 6 yards (5-R.Ford).
