2021 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 19, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX -6 upsetO 40 ✓Jaguars closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 30–16. Biggest swing: Q1 1:42, JAX +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:42HOU — JAX HOU ballJAX 57%

15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:42JAX +19% win prob15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q4 · 13:30HOU +17% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at HOU 25. 32-T.Campbell to HOU 22 for 3 yards (88-J.Akins).
Q3 · 13:39HOU +11% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 10 for -11 yards (95-D.Rivers).
Q2 · 0:29HOU +8% win prob(:29) (No Huddle) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (43-N.Hewitt; 92-C.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	57	65
Total yards	281	296 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	-0.02 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	35%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	10/18 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

22/38, 210 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.3 expected points added · -7.8% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

19/30, 209 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.5 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

18 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Rex BurkheadRB

16 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

7/10 for 102 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

James O'ShaughnessyTE

4/4 for 60 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	17	75	8:21	Touchdown
2	JAX	JAX 17	10	64	4:57	Turnover on downs
3	HOU	—	2	0	0:16	Defensive touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	12	75	4:17	Touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 25	5	11	2:44	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 18	4	-7	1:36	Punt
7	HOU	JAX 49	7	25	4:43	Turnover on downs
8	JAX	JAX 25	9	32	2:45	Turnover on downs
9	HOU	HOU 38	5	29	0:21	Turnover on downs
10	JAX	JAX 14	5	-4	2:08	Punt
11	HOU	JAX 47	7	40	2:13	Turnover on downs
12	JAX	JAX 25	13	60	5:52	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 40	5	4	1:14	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 34	4	8	1:37	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 4	6	13	3:34	Interception
16	JAX	HOU 22	4	5	2:04	Turnover on downs
17	HOU	HOU 33	5	6	1:49	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 18	4	2	0:58	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 40	6	23	2:05	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 4	4	4	1:17	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 45	7	55	2:47	Touchdown
22	JAX	JAX 25	12	57	2:22	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	19/30	209	2	1	1	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rex Burkhead	16	41	2.6	-3.2
David Johnson	6	24	4.0	-0.9
Royce Freeman	3	8	2.7	-1.0
Davis Mills	1	2	2.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	7	10	102	2	33%	7.8
Phillip Dorsett	2	3	43	0	10%	1.9
Jordan Akins	2	3	24	0	10%	-1.9
Nico Collins	2	4	14	0	13%	-1.3
Chris Conley	2	4	12	0	13%	-1.1
Rex Burkhead	1	3	6	0	10%	-1.6
Pharaoh Brown	2	2	5	0	7%	-0.5
David Johnson	1	1	3	0	3%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tavierre Thomas	7	4	0.0	0
Garret Wallow	4	5	1.0	0
Neville Hewitt	4	5	0.0	0
Jonathan Owens	4	4	0.0	0
Eric Murray	3	4	0.0	1
Chris Smith	2	3	1.0	0
Derek Rivers	2	1	1.0	0
Tremon Smith	2	0	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	2	0	0.0	1
Roy Lopez	2	0	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	22/38	210	0	0	3	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	18	75	4.2	1	0.0
Trevor Lawrence	5	21	4.2	0	0.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	10	10.0	0	1.3
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	1.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
James O'Shaughnessy	4	4	60	11%	1.1
Laquon Treadwell	6	9	57	25%	1.9
Laviska Shenault Jr.	4	7	39	19%	1.1
Marvin Jones	2	4	14	11%	-0.5
James Robinson	3	6	13	17%	-3.1
Tavon Austin	1	3	11	8%	0.0
Chris Manhertz	1	1	11	3%	0.5
Dare Ogunbowale	1	2	5	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Andrew Wingard	4	4	0.0	0	0
Dawuane Smoot	1	4	0.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	4	1	0.0	0	0
Myles Jack	3	1	0.0	0	0
Malcom Brown	2	2	1.0	0	1
Tyson Campbell	3	1	0.0	1	2
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	3	0.0	0	0
Damien Wilson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Rudy Ford	3	0	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -6
Closing total: 40
HOU moneyline: +224
JAX moneyline: -257

Jaguars closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 46 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: HOU 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Darrell Bevell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.