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polling · 300s tick · as of 4:39 PM ET · 1 to play · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 16, 2021 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 15
It turned at Q4 8:55, 3rd and 5, on Travis Kelce — 23.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 8:55, Chiefs +23.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:55 · 3rd and 5
Travis Kelce
Chiefs
(8:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 1 for 69 yards (36-T.Marshall; 24-N.Adderley). Penalty on LAC-36-T.Marshall, Defensive Holding, declined.
23.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Chargers at 6 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Chargers at 6 of 13 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
(8:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 1 for 69 yards (36-T.Marshall; 24-N.Adderley). Penalty on LAC-36-T.Marshall, Defensive Holding, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Travis Kelce's 34-yard touchdown catch with 8:54 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Harrison Butker30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+310–0Harrison Butker33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+313–14
Travis Kelce34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+634–2810 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chiefs ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 67 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Chargers’s 78 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Chargers 7.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 23 team-games charted in week 15 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 47.6% in week 14 against 72.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +0.8 pts in week 14 against +12.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs12.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 9.2 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 67 snaps
Chargers-4.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.3 vs their 3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 78 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 35% to 91%
Tendencies room →Chiefs72.2%inside their normal wobble · +9.4 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 54 early downs
Chargers50.0%leaned — ran early · −11.5 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 60 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21% to 130%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.3%.
Chargers100.0%leaned — went for it · +45.7 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±29.6 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 30%
Tendencies room →Chiefs7.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Chargers10.0%inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 45.7 points above their season mean of 54.3% and 1.5 times their own 29.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
31/47, 410 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
9.3 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
22/38, 236 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.7 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 13.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 41.1 | +13.6 | 78% | 84% | 29% | 35% | 10/13, 191 yd, 2 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 32.8 | +8.7 | 83% | 84% | 29% | 32% | 12/13, 148 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 29.6 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/47, 410 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 32 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 23.0 | −18.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/38, 236 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Keenan AllenWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.8 | −3.5 | 78% | 79% | 27% | 39% | 0/1, 0 yd · 6/10, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 18.2 | +1.2 | 34% | 31% | 11% | 0% | 12 car, 59 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 23 yd |
| Justin JacksonRB | 10.9 | +2.7 | 54% | 57% | 3% | 1% | 13 car, 86 yd · 1/1, 13 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 10.7 | +3.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Committee Back | 9.0 | −2.6 | 71% | 71% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 32 yd · 2/4, 18 yd |
| Jalen GuytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | +4.0 | 35% | 43% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 7.9 | −15.8 | 81% | 71% | 24% | 30% | 3/9, 49 yd |
| Jared CookTE · Featured Receiver | 6.2 | −8.7 | 54% | 67% | 19% | 13% | 3/7, 32 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −0.9 | 64% | 69% | 9% | 4% | 3/4, 22 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −7.0 | 43% | 41% | 9% | 14% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/4, 11 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +0.6 | 41% | 48% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.6 | 48% | 21% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Tre' McKittyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.2 | 51% | 29% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Darrel WilliamsRB | 1.2 | −9.5 | 29% | 25% | 2% | 4% | 5 car, 12 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Andre RobertsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Gabe NabersRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −1.5 | 22% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 0.1 | −7.8 | 16% | 12% | 0% | — | 7 car, 21 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.2 | 68% | 71% | 7% | 9% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:02) 27-J.Kelley up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (56-B.Niemann, 98-T.Wharton). FUMBLES (98-T.Wharton), RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 2.
Q4 11:02 · Chargers · 3rd & goal at KC 1 · lost 1 · -5.81 EP · −22.8% win probability
175 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 185 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 97 yards from the LAC 1 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs6
Chargers0Chiefs7Chargers0Chiefs10Chargers0Chiefs10Chargers6Chiefs10Chargers7Chiefs10Chargers13Chiefs10Chargers14Chiefs13Chargers14Chiefs13Chargers20Chiefs13Chargers21Chiefs19Chargers21Chiefs21Chargers21Chiefs21Chargers27Chiefs21Chargers28Chiefs27Chargers28Chiefs28Chargers28Chiefs34Chargers28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 31/47 | 410 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 13 | 191 | 2 | 29% | +15.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 13 | 148 | 1 | 29% | +12.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Charvarius Ward | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ben Niemann | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hitchens |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/38 | 236 | 2 | 1 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.5 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_15_KC_LAC
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 54; the game landed 62 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Michael Burton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Michael Burton | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +0.0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 9% | −3.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −5.0 |
| Darrel Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.1 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.0 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Mike Hughes | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deandre Baker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Sorensen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Gabe Nabers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 10 | 78 | 1 | 27% | −1.2 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 24% | −1.1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 19% | −3.4 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11% | +0.2 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +2.0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Marshall | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevaughn Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Linval Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
