2021 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 16, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

KC -3 ✓O 54 ✓DomeChiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Kansas City Chiefs 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 8:55, LAC +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:55KC — LAC KC ball · 3rd & 5LAC 84%

(8:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 1 for 69 yards (36-T.Marshall; 24-N.Adderley). Penalty on LAC-36-T.Marshall, Defensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:55LAC +24% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 1 for 69 yards (36-T.Marshall; 24-N.Adderley). Penalty on LAC-36-T.Marshall, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 9:39KC +21% win prob(9:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 42-U.Nwosu at KC 4. 42-U.Nwosu to KC 2 for 2 yards (15-P.Mahomes).
OT · 9:56LAC +20% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 48 for 27 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
Q4 · 11:02KC +19% win prob(11:02) 27-J.Kelley up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (56-B.Niemann, 98-T.Wharton). FUMBLES (98-T.Wharton), RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 2.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Chargers
Offensive plays	67	78
Total yards	497 (edge)	428
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	48% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	75%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	24	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

31/47, 410 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

9.3 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/38, 236 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

13 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

12 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/13 for 191 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 15.5 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

12/13 for 148 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	KC 24	7	19	1:33	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 5	12	103	5:53	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 25	7	28	2:16	Interception
4	KC	KC 43	10	36	5:30	Turnover on downs
5	LAC	LAC 25	12	75	5:36	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 7	5	3	1:01	Punt
7	LAC	KC 42	10	42	4:56	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	5	12	1:24	Fumble
9	LAC	KC 45	9	44	1:51	Turnover on downs
10	KC	KC 25	8	31	2:48	Turnover on downs
11	LAC	LAC 25	10	42	4:28	Turnover on downs
12	KC	KC 28	11	70	5:56	Turnover on downs
13	LAC	LAC 1	12	82	5:54	Fumble
14	KC	KC 2	3	7	1:20	Interception
15	LAC	KC 2	2	2	0:05	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 25	6	75	1:45	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 25	13	75	5:25	Touchdown
18	KC	KC 25	10	75	1:03	Touchdown
19	LAC	LAC 25	7	19	0:59	Punt
20	KC	KC 28	3	10	0:17	Turnover on downs
21	KC	KC 25	6	75	1:15	Touchdown

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 103 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	31/47	410	3	1	1	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	3	32	10.7	0	2.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	9	32	3.6	0	-0.9
Darrel Williams	5	12	2.4	0	-1.1
Michael Burton	1	7	7.0	1	1.8
Blake Bell	1	3	3.0	0	0.3
Mecole Hardman	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	10	13	191	2	29%	15.5
Tyreek Hill	12	13	148	1	29%	12.0
Byron Pringle	3	4	22	0	9%	0.4
Michael Burton	2	2	20	0	4%	0.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	4	18	0	9%	-3.4
Mecole Hardman	2	4	11	0	9%	-5.0
Darrel Williams	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.1
Blake Bell	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Demarcus Robinson	0	3	0	0	7%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Nick Bolton	7	4	0	3
Charvarius Ward	6	3	0	2
Ben Niemann	4	3	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	3	3	1	1
Mike Hughes	5	0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	4	0	0	0
Rashad Fenton	3	0	0	0
Jarran Reed	2	1	0	0
Deandre Baker	1	1	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	1	1	0	2

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/38	236	2	1	0	-3.7
Keenan Allen	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Jackson	13	86	6.6	0	2.5
Austin Ekeler	12	59	4.9	1	2.2
Joshua Kelley	7	21	3.0	0	-4.7
Justin Herbert	5	16	3.2	1	2.8
Andre Roberts	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
Gabe Nabers	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	6	10	78	1	27%	-1.2
Mike Williams	3	9	49	0	24%	-1.1
Jared Cook	3	7	32	0	19%	-3.4
Austin Ekeler	4	4	23	0	11%	0.2
Josh Palmer	1	1	15	0	3%	1.6
Justin Jackson	1	1	13	0	3%	1.3
Stephen Anderson	1	1	12	0	3%	2.0
Jalen Guyton	2	2	10	1	5%	0.6
Tre' McKitty	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.5
Donald Parham	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyzir White	7	0	0.0	0
Trey Marshall	3	4	0.0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	4	2	0.0	0
Chris Harris	5	0	0.0	0
Joey Bosa	2	2	1.0	0
Michael Davis	3	1	0.0	1
Justin Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Derwin James	2	1	0.0	0
Nasir Adderley	2	1	0.0	0
Linval Joseph	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3
Closing total: 54
KC moneyline: -173
LAC moneyline: +155

Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 54; the game landed 62 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: KC 4 days · LAC 4 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Brandon Staley

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.