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2021 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 16, 2021 · SoFi Stadium
34
28
Kansas City Chiefs 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 8:55, LAC +24% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(8:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to LAC 1 for 69 yards (36-T.Marshall; 24-N.Adderley). Penalty on LAC-36-T.Marshall, Defensive Holding, declined.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Chiefs | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 67 | 78 |
| Total yards | 497 (edge) | 428 |
| Yards per play | 7.4 (edge) | 5.5 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.17 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 48% (edge) | 47% |
| Dropback rate | 75% | 54% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.23 (edge) | -0.06 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.02 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/12 (edge) | 6/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 9 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 24 | 27 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
31/47, 410 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
9.3 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
22/38, 236 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.7 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | KC 24 | 7 | 19 | 1:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | KC | KC 5 | 12 | 103 | 5:53 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | LAC | LAC 25 | 7 | 28 | 2:16 | Interception | |
| 4 | KC | KC 43 | 10 | 36 | 5:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 25 | 12 | 75 | 5:36 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | KC | KC 7 | 5 | 3 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 7 | LAC | KC 42 | 10 | 42 | 4:56 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 12 | 1:24 | Fumble | |
| 9 | LAC | KC 45 | 9 | 44 | 1:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | KC | KC 25 | 8 | 31 | 2:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | LAC | LAC 25 | 10 | 42 | 4:28 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | KC | KC 28 | 11 | 70 | 5:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 1 | 12 | 82 | 5:54 | Fumble | |
| 14 | KC | KC 2 | 3 | 7 | 1:20 | Interception | |
| 15 | LAC | KC 2 | 2 | 2 | 0:05 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 75 | 1:45 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | LAC | LAC 25 | 13 | 75 | 5:25 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | KC | KC 25 | 10 | 75 | 1:03 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | LAC | LAC 25 | 7 | 19 | 0:59 | Punt | |
| 20 | KC | KC 28 | 3 | 10 | 0:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 75 | 1:15 | Touchdown |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 103 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 31/47 | 410 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.8 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 13 | 191 | 2 | 29% | 15.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 13 | 148 | 1 | 29% | 12.0 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Charvarius Ward | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ben Niemann | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Hitchens |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/38 | 236 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3.7 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 54; the game landed 62 — over by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.4 |
| Michael Burton | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4% | 0.0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 9% | -3.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 9% | -5.0 |
| Darrel Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -1.1 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | -0.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7% | -2.0 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Mike Hughes | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deandre Baker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Sorensen | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Justin Jackson | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 1 | 2.2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | -4.7 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 | 2.8 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Gabe Nabers | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 10 | 78 | 1 | 27% | -1.2 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 24% | -1.1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 19% | -3.4 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 11% | 0.2 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 1.6 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 1.3 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 2.0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 5% | 0.6 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Marshall | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tevaughn Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasir Adderley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Linval Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
